PGA DFS Picks: Against the Grain for the Safeway Open

Whether it’s your first time reading or you’re a seasoned vet, this article covers PGA DFS picks for the Safeway Open. It also breaks the field down into four price categories for FanDuel and DraftKings. The article is meant to be a guiding tool in creating variance in your lineups, which in turn, hopefully, can create an edge against the field.

Winning a GPP of any size is a difficult task, especially ones with 40,000-plus entries. Each of my big wins has come by going against the grain with some players and pairing them with the right chalk.

Half-Millionaire Maker Review From Last Week

Even a 30-man field couldn’t stop this user from creating a unique lineup and taking down half a million dollars. He left $500 on the table, faded Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm and found the winning lineup with Mackenzie Hughes and Sebastian Munoz.

Picks Review

Top-end pick: None of my three against-the-grain plays ended up in the winning lineup, but Collin Morikawa was good.
Value: Sungjae Im was looking really good through a couple of rounds.
Mid-level pick: Munoz was very good.

Projected Highest-Owned Golfers for the Safeway Open

For the full list, click here.

PGA DFS Player Focus This Week

It is back to a full field of 156 players this week with the top 65 and ties making the cut.

The Top 10 Priced

Total ownership is around 140%

Commentary

This is like going from 60 to zero in a blip, as we get Si Woo Kim as our top-priced golfer. He’ll get around 15% this week but will likely not be the highest golfer of the top-10-priced on DraftKings this week. That title should go to Joel Dahmen, who should get around 20%. Brendan Steele is coming into this week in good form, and having won twice here in the last three years, he will likely get a bunch of attention as well. Sergio Garcia and Jordan Spieth check-in next, coming in around 15%, as are Chez Reavie and Erik van Rooyen. That leaves us with two candidates that should get close to 10% owned or lower: Phil Mickelson and Emiliano Grillo.

Top Against-the-Grain Plays

A former champion of the event, Grillo had picked up his play over the last month or so, but boosting him up to $9,700 even in this field is creating some sticker shock. I think going double or triple Grillo in GPPs could prove beneficial.

$8,000

Total ownership of 119%

pga dfs picks

Commentary

Sam Burns, along with other young prospects Doc Redman and Cameron Davis, will gain the most attention this week, all coming in around 15%. Kevin Streelman, Harold Varner III and Mark Hubbard will all come in that range as well. That should mark all the golfers that are owned over 10% in this range. There are plenty of chances to go against the grain with golfers like Bud Cauley, Keegan Bradley and Tyler Duncan. All have played well in the last couple of weeks. A couple of notables like Brandt Snedeker, Henrik Norlander, William Gordon and Lucas Glover should all come in below 10% as well.

Top Against-the-Grain Plays

I have an affinity for Gordon, no doubt about that. In fact, I’ll add him to my “favorite list” this week since I tend to play him blindly. He is a PGA Tour “non-member” now, much like Redman last year. I also like Duncan, Cauley and Varner, the last of whose price is dictating the lower ownership.

$7,000

Total ownership of 162%

Commentary

Wesley Bryan is certainly picking his spots to earn his PGA Tour card back, playing in these weaker-field events. He’s performed admirably in them, riding a hot approach game and putter. As long as he doesn’t lose 12 strokes off the tee this week, he’s in play again and likely carries the most ownership from this range. Also getting attention will be Cameron Tringale, Jhonattan Vegas, Charley Hoffman, Troy Merritt, Denny McCarthy and Talor Gooch. That should end the golfers that could be above 10% owned this week. There are plenty of against-the-grain plays in the 5-10% owned range, including:

Luke List
Carlos Ortiz
Sepp Straka
Harry Higgs
Jim Furyk

If you want to go truly against the grain, a couple of other names you could look at are:

Robby Shelton
Ryan Armour
Maverick McNealy
Kristoffer Ventura

Top Against-the-Grain Plays

List will be a big play for me this week. I also like Ventura and McNealy.

$6,000

170% total ownership

pga dfs picks

Commentary

While no golfer should get over 10%, there is still plenty of ownership coming from this section as expected, with over 100 golfers in it. Scott Stallings is joined by Adam Schenk, Aaron Wise, Seamus Power, Chase Sieffert and Matthew NeSmith, and all will likely come over 5% owned but under 10%. The golfer making waves around the PGA DFS industry this week is Tom Kim, aka Joohyung Kim, the 18-year-old phenom from Korea making his first start on the PGA Tour. I don’t think the industry has that much of an effect on ownership in the big GPPs, but in single entry contests, he could get to 5% owned.

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Author

Jason Rouslin

Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].