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against the grain

Against the Grain: PGA DFS Picks for the Millionaire Maker Contest | U.S. Open

Jason Rouslin

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PGA DFS First Look: Jason Rouslin and Geoff Ulrich give you an intital look and provide free PGA DFS picks for DraftKings U.S. Open | 9/14

The Millionaire Maker returns this week but at a different price point. The $100 PGA DFS Millionaire Maker Contest has just over 25,000 entries, something us gamers were used to seeing with the $33 or $44 last year. It is quite a change of pace from the 100,000-plus entries we’ve seen from the previous Millionaire Makers and should make for some interesting ownerships. Let’s get into this week’s Against the Grain picks.


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Projected Highest-Owned Golfers for The U.S. Open 

For the full list, click here.

PGA DFS Player Focus

This week features 144 players with the top 60 and ties making the cut.

$10,000 and Above

  • Six Golfers
  • Total ownership of around 90%

In majors, it’s always the most difficult to pinpoint exactly where these guys will be owned. But this week the trend really is heading towards Xander Schauffele. I suspect if any of these six golfers are going to get over 20% owned this week, it’ll be him. The form warrants it, and he’s been closer than just about anyone in terms of his major performance. Rory McIlroy got his feet underneath him a bit at the Tour Championship. Now with a couple of weeks at home with the new baby, I’m sure he’s itching to play. He and Jon Rahm should be owned just north of 15%. The next three, however, aren’t as easy to predict. I think it’ll be Dustin Johnson coming in the least owned of the bunch, close to 10%, with Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa coming in between 13% and 15%.

Top Against-the-Grain PlaysIt almost feels like you can go out and get 30% of all of these guys. But that’s just a bit too much, so my theory has always been to fade the highest-owned guy and play the lowest. So I’ll follow that rule here this week and go with Johnson as my most significant overweight while being a tad underweight on Schauffele.


Related PGA DFS Content


$8,000-$9,999

  • 16 Golfers
  • Total ownership of 180%

There are 16 golfers and a ton of talent in this section, including two of the most prolific players in this generation as the lowest owned of the bunch. Tiger Woods and Justin Rose are trending towards 5% owned this week, which certainly has to pique the interest of some of the more aggressive gamers. At the other end, Patrick Reed and Patrick Cantlay are trending towards 15%. Cantlay had been really out of form the past four weeks or so, so I think that will end up keeping his ownership down considerably. Webb Simpson, Daniel Berger, Tony Finau and Tommy Fleetwood are all projected to be around 12-15% owned, but I think at least two, if not three or even all four, will get above 15%.

Hideki Matsuyama leads the next handful of elite players, which includes Bryson DeChambeau, Viktor Hovland, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler and Matthew Fitzpatrick. All of them will be owned between 10% and 15% this week.

Top Against-the-Grain PlaysNeither golfer that is projected to be at or under 5% owned has played particularly well, so it’s tough to buy in. But if you are making 20 lineups, or even 150, I think putting one or both in at least 10-20% of your lineups to get leverage is a good thing. Then if Tiger ends up competing, you’ll be even more intrigued knowing you have at least double the field, going 10%.

 

$7,000s

  • 39 Golfers
  • Total ownership of 260%

pga dfs

Comparatively to the PGA Championship, this pricing section pales in comparison. The strongest golfer now, Paul Casey, is joined by Abraham Ancer and Harris English. These three might be the only ones over 10% this week. Louis Oosthuizen, Gary Woodland and Matthew Wolff will all also come close and may end up over it come Thursday morning. Jordan Spieth, because of his higher ownership last week, is projecting around 7%, as is Sungjae Im. A handfull of golfers are left that I expect to be over 5% owned this week. Some of those include:

  • Brendon Todd
  • Joaquin Niemann
  • Matt Kuchar
  • Shane Lowry
  • Sergio Garcia
  • Cameron Champ
  • Henrik Stenson
  • Martin Kaymer

That should do it with golfers that will be more than 5% owned from this price section. Still, plenty of golfers are left here, 12 to be exact, that will be under 5% owned:

  • Phil Mickelson
  • Bubba Watson
  • Alex Noren
  • Matt Wallace
  • Si Woo Kim
  • Marc Leishman
  • Bernd Wiesberger
  • Cameron Smith
  • Zach Johnson
  • Brandt Snedeker
  • Lee Westwood
  • Danny Willett

Top Against-the-Grain Plays

While I’m not overly thrilled about anyone on these lists, I do like Brendon Todd’s putting prowess, along with Cameron Champ’s new caddie John Wood, former caddie of Matt Kuchar. Shane Lowry put new clubs in the bag last week, maybe in prep for this week. Sergio Garcia is a worse putter than my two-year-old right now, and likely his as well. All of these golfers present low ownership, but for a good reason. That may not be so much on Todd, which is my top lean at this point.

$6,000s

  • 90 Golfers
  • Total ownership of 163%

pga dfs

For the second straight major, Ryan Palmer is looking like he will lead the ownership game. Kevin Streelman, Byeong Hun An, Chez Reavie, Adam Hadwin and Erik van Rooyen all look like they could get over 5% this week. Van Rooyen a full $2,500 cheaper than he was last week, where he was almost 15% owned. Kevin Na, Rasmus Hojgaard, Brian Harman, Thomas Pieters and Brandon Wu all look like they will get about 5% ownership or less and could make for intriguing GPP options.


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Looking for more PGA DFS picks content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo PGA home page, just click HERE.

Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now two years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of James as well as two Labradors (Choco and Bella) and he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, or somewhere hopefully lost in nature with his dogs guiding him along the way. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing support@awesemo.com.

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