PGA DFS: Against the Grain Picks for the Workday Charity Open

Whether it’s your first time reading or you’re a seasoned vet, this article covers GPP Players Championship picks for PGA DFS. It also breaks the field down into four price categories for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo. The article is meant to be a guiding tool in creating variance in your lineups, which in turn, hopefully, can create an edge against the field.

Winning a GPP of any size is a difficult task, especially ones with 40,000-plus entries. Each of my big wins has come by going against the grain with some players and pairing them with the right chalk.

Millionaire Maker Review From Last Week

First, let’s take a look at the winning lineup PGA DFS Millionaire Maker lineup from last week:

“JoshHunter12693” entered one lineup and ended on this. Not only that, but he had to get a combined -17 under with three bogey-free rounds from Adam Hadwin, Sepp Straka and Danny Willett on Sunday to win. Hadwin went eagle-birdie on 17 and 18 to accomplish his. This is crazy stuff that just can’t be made up.

Now let’s turn our attention to how we did projecting the PGA DFS ownership percentages last week.

RSQ

Jason’s- 84.67%
Awesemo – 84.42%

Picks Review

Top-end pick: Hideki Matsuyama (21)
Mid-level pick: Kurt Kitayama (MC)
Low-level pick: Maverick McNealy (8)

Projected Highest-Owned Golfers for the Workday Charity Open

For the full list, click here.

Player Focus This Week

This week features 156 players with the top 65 and ties making the cut.

$10,000 and Above

Six Golfers
Total ownership of 105%

Commentary

We get another six golfers to choose from this week.

I like the fact that DraftKings has gone to the standard six golfers above $10,000. I think it creates good parity among the best players. This week, I’ve got Patrick Cantlay as the highest-owned golfer of the slate, coming in near 20%. There’s a little disparity between Awesemo and I on that front, as they have Justin Thomas a bit above him.

Still, it looks like Brooks Koepka, after having to withdraw from the Travelers out of an abundance of caution, is trending to be the least owned out of the bunch. I don’t suspect it’ll get much below 15%, and certainly not down to 10%, at least in the Millionaire Maker. If you are high on Koepka and looking for leverage, check out the single-entry Driver ($200), or Albatross ($12).

I didn’t mention Xander Schauffle, Hideki Matsuyama or Jon Rahm yet, but that’s only because I suspect mid-tier ownership on all of them so nothing to get too excited about on either side.

Top Against-the-Grain Plays

As mentioned, Koepka in the single entries should get close to 10%. I’ll take that approach and hope I’m right.

$8,000-$9,999

15 Golfers
Total ownership of 185%

Commentary

The other discrepancy that Alex “Awesemo” Baker’s projections and mine have this week is Matt Kuchar. After two sub-par (not in golf terminology but actual finish position) starts since the Tour has returned, he comes to a course where he has some good history. The thing about him, though, since he’s been around for so long, there aren’t many courses where he hasn’t finished in the top 10. I’ve got him coming in close to 18-19%, whereas Awesemo has him somewhere in the 14% range. He will likely end up coming in the middle, as that’s what tends to happen to these things.

Outside of him, Patrick Reed, even after missing the cut last week, seems to be getting plenty of attention, as is Gary Woodland, also coming off a missed cut in his last appearance. Viktor Hovland’s lofty salary remains and his ownership is intact, even with the much stronger field competing this week. Sungjae Im and Justin Rose are also trending towards 15% or higher this week. Rickie Fowler had a bit of a bounce back last week, but with the price at $9,000, I can’t imagine him getting higher than 12 or 13%. The next three golfers are up for debate in terms of where they should be owned, as Leishman has been touted quite a few times this week by people in the industry. That could bring his ownership closer to 15%, whereas Adam Hadwin is coming off his best finish in quite a while. It’ll be interesting to see what gamers do with Collin Morikawa, who is coming off of his first missed cut as a professional but is still priced at $9,200.

That’ll leave four golfers that should be at or under 10% owned this week:

Bubba Watson
Matthew Wolff
Joaquin Niemann
Jordan Spieth

Top Against-the-Grain Plays

I know Niemann’s price has come up tremendously, especially for this type of field, but that could also keep ownership down quite a bit. I like stacking Spieth and Niemann.

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$7,000s

42 Golfers
Total ownership of 190%

Commentary

There is no clear chalk down here this week, as a few out-of-form golfers that are typically priced much higher have gamers failing to trust them fully. Billy Horschel is trending to be the highest owned, at 10%, with Joel Dahmen, Byeong Hun An, Corey Conners and Ian Poulter should all be owned in that 10% range. Scottie Scheffler coming off of a 79-65 week at the Rocket Mortgage, could also climb into this range, as could Harold Varner III who has looked good since the restart. Mark Hubbard, who I was way low on last week, could climb above the 10% mark as well.

Outside of those guys, you should get most of the other golfers in the field at 10% or less, including:

Ryan Palmer
Maverick McNealy
Max Homa
Jason Day
Jason Kokrak

That still leaves plenty of golfers that will definitely be under 5% owned this week, including:

Cameron Champ
Shane Lowry
Lanto Griffin
Scott Stallings
Matt Wallace
Luke List

Top Against-the-Grain Plays

I have a bit of an affinity for Luke List right now, as I guess that win on the Korn Ferry Tour solidified my belief in his potential. At a flat $7,000 coming in on good form, I like seeking the under 5% ownership here.

$6,000s

90 Golfers
Total ownership of under 100%

Commentary

There are not as many golfers as last week, and certainly no Matthew Wolffs that stick out in terms of being mispriced. Jim Furyk bounced back at TPC Riverhighlands and is looking to be around 5% owned, as are Vaughn Taylor and Matthew NeSmith. The next two golfers have been as high as 20% owned in this restart, but haven’t quite put it together: Carlos Ortiz and Sebastian Munoz. Other golfers like Aaron Wise, Dylan Firttelli, Harry Higgs and Sam Burns are all likely to have some ownership attached to them. With 80 or so more names in this section, finding the diamonds in the rough may be a bit difficult, but will certainly pay off if one’s able to do so.