PGA DFS Picks: Free Awesemo Grades, Values, Ownership

Colonial sets up as Par 70 venue that plays around 7,200 yards in length. On its face it won’t strike anyone as a tricky setup, as many of holes play quite straight forward, although there are a few gentle doglegs mixed in. The nuances of this venue, though, lay in its age as older trees typically encroach into fairways, often blocking out approaches if tee shots are even a little off line. The course only has two par 5’s as well, with one playing at well over 600 yards, while the par 3’s all fall within 190-215 yards and traditionally play as medium-to-tougher holes. Despite some younger players like Brooks Koepka and Jon Rahm finding success here early, this has been a veteran’s paradise with three of the last four winners having recorded a tied-14th or better in an earlier season. In general, solid putting/short game and good approach play from 150-200 yards will be the key to success.

We’re BACK WITH A SWEET PGA DFS PROMO. Two options for you:

Use promo code SCHWAB to get 20% our PGA yearly package. Offer expires on June 11.
Use promo code SUMMER to get 10% off a platinum yearly package. Offer expires June 11.

Click HERE to join.

Course Stats and Info

Par 70, 7,209 yards
Weather can be a factor (wind, rain, storms … it’s Texas): Played as the seventh-toughest course last season to a +0.860 over/under-par average score
Bermudagrass mix fairways, A-4 bentgrass greens
Contains 84 bunkers, three water hazards

Putting Splits

With the Tour now in Texas, we make a switch for at least one week to bentgrass greens. Here’s a look at some of the best and worst bentgrass putters in the field, relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.

Negative Bentgrass putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

Vaughn Taylor: +7 on bentgrass, +29 on all other surfaces
Ian Poulter: -1 on bentgrass, +28 on all other surfaces
Rory McIlroy: -5 on bentgrass, +17 on all other surfaces
Max Homa: -5 on bentgrass, +14 on all other surfaces
Daniel Berger: -13 on bentgrass, +11 on all other surfaces

*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost

Positive Bentgrass Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

Beau Hossler: +47 on bentgrass, +32 on all other surfaces
Kevin Na: +37 on bentgrass, +7 on all other surfaces
Alex Noren: +20.7 on bentgrass, -10 on all other surfaces
Brian Gay: +19 on bentgrass, -3 on all other surfaces
Rory Sabbatini: +9 on bentgrass, -3.5 on all other surfaces

PGA DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel

Matt Kuchar: Grades: B, Values: B,A

Kuchar grades out as a pretty solid value among the high-priced players on Awesemo this week at $8,500 on DraftKings and $9,700 on FanDuel. The American has played Colonial plenty of times over his career, recording a tied-sixth finish here in 2016 and a solo second as recently as 2013. Over the last five seasons, he’s fifth in total strokes gained at this venue. He is also coming off a decent run of form prior to the stoppage where he had made four straight cuts and recorded a tied-second in his penultimate start at the Genesis. Kuchar’s upside is generally governed by his putter and he had been extremely good with that club prior to the break, gaining three or more strokes with the putter in three of his last six starts. Given the long break and fact we’re returning at a classic venue where course experience has paid off for several past winners, Kuchar feels like a fantastic value, even in this buffed-out field.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 11.45% | FanDuel: 9.23%

The Stats

12^th in the field in SG: Total at Colonial over the last five years
Seventh and ninth in SG: ATG and SG: Putting over the last 50 rounds
Ninth in par-4 efficiency stats (400-450 yards) over last 36 rounds and third in this stat over last 12 rounds

Adam Hadwin: Grades: C, Values: B, C

Hadwin’s grades are brought down this week by a stronger field, but the Canadian looks like great value, especially on DraftKings where he’s just $7,300. The former winner of the Valspar Championship has plenty of things going for him this week that make him an attractive target, including course experience. This will be Hadwin’s fifth time playing Colonial, with last year being the only season on tour he skipped it. Overall, he ranks 22nd in SG: Total here over the past five seasons and finished tied for fifth here on debut back in 2015. He ranks ninth in proximity from 150-175 yards over the last 24 rounds — a key approach metric based on past events — and is also positive in his bentgrass putting stats, ranking 17^th in this field in SG: Putting on bent over the last 50 rounds.

The Stats

+17 strokes putting on bent vs. all other surfaces in his last 50 rounds
11^th in field in par-4 efficiency from 400-450 yards over the last 50 rounds
Has gained strokes tee to green on the field in five of his last six starts

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 5.96% | FanDuel: 5.75%

Check us out on TWITTER, where we talk sports, share articles, and have lots of giveaways!

Low-Owned PGA DFS GPP Flier

Jimmy Walker: Grades: D, Values: C

Walker is almost assured to be lower-owned in GPPs this week as the veteran and former PGA Championship winner hasn’t recorded a top-10 on tour in two years. That horrible stat aside, Walker looked like he was gaining some form prior to the break as he had gained over 2.5 strokes on Approaches in each of his last two starts and put up back-to-back top-25s. The move to Colonial should also help his putter, which had been holding back any kind of breakout prior to the COVID stoppage. Walker has positive putting splits on bentgrass and the Texas native has also been a great performer in his home state, picking up a win at the Valero Open a few years ago. He gained two strokes with his putter here last seasons, and 3.7 on approaches, on his way to a tied-19th finish. Walker may not have the upside to take down an elite field like this anymore, but he can certainly return GPP-winning value if his putter cooperates and he’ll be available at insanely low ownership.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 1.77% | FanDuel: 2.04%

Bonus: Top-Five Under Five

I am targeting five players here that I ultimately think will end up under (or close) to sub-5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We’re searching for boom-or-bust players here with an almost 100% focus on upside.

Louis Oosthuizen ($8,100)

Injury issues prior to break led to some terrible performances and really killed his SG: Ball Striking totals. He seems likely to be less owned as a result.
Tied for fifth last year at Colonial (gained over five strokes on approach), has handled classic, tight venues well on PGA with top-10’s at Hilton Head and Copperhead in past seasons.
Missed the cut at Honda, his first since 2019 at API, consistency underrated and always overlooked due to his one or two in-play withdrawals each year.

Ryan Moore ($7,200)

Has only failed to gain strokes tee to green once in last 10 starts.
12^th in efficiency on 400-450 yard par 4’s over last 24 rounds.
Winner at John Deere, high correlation with Colonial, seems overdue for a good result at Colonial considering style of game.

Jimmy Walker ($6,700)

See above

Beau Hossler ($6,600)

Ridiculously good bentgrass putting stats, ranks first in field in SG: Putting on surface.
Hasn’t been over 5% owned in GPPs in any field in last five starts.
Texas native, has made cut here in two of three seasons.
Very much an inverse statistical play, i.e. when he has a spike in approaches or ball striking, he’ll crack the top-10.

K.H. Lee ($6,200)

First in approach proximity from 150-175 yards over last 50 rounds, the most popular approach distance for approaches at Colonial.
Gained strokes off the tee in 10 of last 12 starts and gained over a stroke putting in four of last eight starts.