The FedEx Cup begins this week at TPC Boston and the Northern Trust Open, an event that used to be called the Barclays and a course that used to host the Dell Technologies Open. Confused yet? Well, the PGA cut out the Dell event when it reduced the playoffs from four events to three and TPC Boston ended up in a rotation with various New York venues for hosting duties of the first event. The main thing you need to know here is, our PGA DFS lineups will consist of the top-125 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings, with only the top 70 in the standings moving into to next week’s event.
TPC Boston sets up as a 7,342-yard Par 71 that features Bentgrass greens and has some links features, including rolling fairways, penal fairways bunkers and fescue grass. It’s one of the more favored stops on Tour by the players as its setup encourages scoring with two drive-able Par 4s and some very reachable Par 5s. Driving accuracy and driving distance stats here are generally higher than the Tour averages, making this a good setup for big hitters. Good drivers of the ball will certainly have an advantage on the longer Par 4s, which litter the back nine. That said, winners at this venue have typically been great throughout the bag. The last three have gained at least +3-strokes in both APP and PUTT suggesting power off the tee is just a small part of the puzzle this week
Odds shopping is the best way to make sure you’re finding the best bang for your betting buck. Please enjoy our new, FREE website that shows you what each sports betting odds are in real-time. You can sign up, track your bets, get notifications when a line moves and see how you’re doing in real time. Check it out right HERE.
TPC Boston Course Stats and Info
• Five Par 4s measure in at over 450 yards; two Par 4s measure in at 360 yards (and can be set much shorter) and two of the three Par 5s fall under 550 yards
• The longer holes and three Par 5s here mean approaches >200yards are one of the most prominent approach distances the players will face
• The top-10 finishers here in 2016 and 2017 all gained strokes putting for the week; the top-5 finishers here in 2018 all gained +1.0 strokes or more for the week putting.
Putting Splits
The greens at TPC Boston are pure Bentgrass and should run at least somewhat similar to what we’ve seen at events like Colonial and the PGA Championship. It’s a big change from last week obviously and these greens are noted for playing quite fast most years. Here’s a look at some of the best and worst Bentgrass putters in the field, relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.
Positive Bentgrass Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds
1. Justin Rose: +35 on Bentgrass, +7 on all other surfaces
2. Alex Noren: +27 on Bentgrass, +5 on all other surfaces
3. Jason Day: +24 on Bentgrass, +10 on all other surfaces
*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost
Negative Bentgrass Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds
1. Daniel Berger: -11 on Bentgrass, +15 on all other surfaces
2. Adam Scott: -1 on Bentgrass, +18 on all other surfaces
3. Tom Lewis: -6 on Bentgrass, +1 on all other surfaces
PGA DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel
Jon Rahm: Grades: A+, Values: B, A
Ranked as just the sixth-highest priced golfer on DraftKings this week, Rahm comes in with both the fourth-best top-6 percentage and round average projection in the Awesemo model. The Spaniard is coming off a T13 finish at the PGA Championship where he gained strokes everywhere except on the greens. It was a very solid performance, and one that likely would have got him in contention if not for the fact he was out-gained by 8 strokes on the greens by the eventual winner. The positive from that performance though, for Rahm, is that he played better tee to green than Collin Morikawa — outgaining him there by +2.5 strokes TTG for the week — and most certainly won’t be that dominated on the greens every week by his peer. When you add in the fact Rahm also landed a T4 finish at TPC Boston in 2017, the price savings you’re getting on him vs. both Rory and Dustin this week make him pop even more. He grades out as one of the top plays in points projections and has the best value rating of anyone over 10k on DraftKings this week, by far, as well.
The Stats:
• Has gained strokes OTT in 12 straight starts now; ranks 9th in SG:TTG stats over the last 50 rounds
• T4 at TPC Boston in 2017 when he gained +9.5 strokes on the greens
• Has only lost strokes putting once in his last six starts and ranks 24th in this field in SG:PUTT on Bentgrass greens all-time
Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 20%| FanDuel: 26.1%
Hideki Matsuyama: Grades: A, Values: A
It was interesting to see Hideki Matsuyama project out so well in the Awesemo projections this week. He ranks slightly better than Tony Finau in most major categories — including top-6 percentage — a player who has certainly outperformed him for fantasy purposes since the restart. The truth is that it’s been a slightly strange month for Hideki. He’s finished inside the top 25 in four of his last five starts but hasn’t really displayed the consistent type of ball-striking of late that we usually see from him of. Matsuyama actually lost strokes on his Approaches at the PGA Championship but still was able to grind out a T22 finish. The emphasis on longer approaches at TPC Boston though should really play to his strengths and the fact his short game is currently rounding into form — he’s gained strokes around the green in four straight starts, including +5 at the PGA — will certainly help him around the short Par 5s and Par 4s this week.
The Stats:
• 19th in proximity from >200 yards over the last 100 rounds
• Eighth in strokes gained total at TPC Boston over the last five events played there
• Has gained +4.5 or more strokes Tee to Green in four of last five starts now
Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 16.1%| FanDuel: 16.9%
Check us out on TWITTER, where we talk sports, share articles, and have lots of giveaways!
Low-Owned PGA DFS GPP flier
Kevin Na
Na is a pretty big weekly bust risk for PGA DFS due to concerns about his back. With the playoffs about to begin though and lots of money and exemptions on the line for those who reach the final 30 at East Lake in two weeks, there is reason to believe that now would be the time to start trusting him a little more. He currently ranks 17th in the FedEx Cup points standings — something he is definitely aware of as he put it on his Instagram — so any decent finish this week would put him in great position for that. With some WDs and fewer events played over the last couple weeks it’s hard to gauge exactly where his game is at but it’s worth noting that he’s only lost strokes on APP once since the restart — at the brutish TPC Harding Park, which is about as poor a fit for his game as you could find. His putting has remained dominant and he’s gained the second most strokes putting on Bentgrass over the last 50 rounds. A T6 finish at TPC Boston in 2017, where he gained over +8 strokes on approaches that year, showcases that he can handle this venue fine if the irons show up. At ownership that seems sure to stay in the mid-single digits, and an affordable salary across the industry, Na makes for a fine GPP target this week in DFS
Projected PGA DFS ownership: : DraftKings: 6.8%| FanDuel: 7.3%
Bonus: DraftKings Top-three under five
Targeting five players here that I ultimately think will end up under (or close) to sub-5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We’re searching for boom or bust players here with an almost 100% focus on upside.
Byeong Hun An ($7,300)
An played well throughout the bag at TPC Harding Park, gaining multiple strokes in all major categories except off the tee. It was the second solid week in a row for him as he also played well in Memphis and started Sunday in the final group there. His world class short game should play well around the scoring holes at TPC Boston, so if he cleans up the off the tee game even a little, a big week could be had here.
Phil Mickelson ($7,300)
Phil has played some surprisingly good golf of late and has some of the best course history in the field this week. He won at TPC Boston way back in 2007 and finished T12 and T6 in 2017 and 2018. He’s very similar to An in that if his off the tee game is working, his short game can lead him to several birdies here and produce a great week for DFS players who choose to chance him.
Cameron Davis ($6,300)
Davis has found some consistency in his game of late and its produced two very strong DFS performances in a row now. The step up in class this week is a big one, but the Aussie should find TPC Boston a solid enough venue for him as he’ll be able to take advantage of his good length of the tee on several holes. If his short game and putter stay as solid as they have been the last two weeks he’ll easily pay off this minuscule salary.
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
