The Approach: PGA DFS Picks Based off Awesemo’s Rankings for the Sanderson Farms Championship

The Sanderson Farms Championship enters its seventh season at its current location and as part of the PGA Tour’s fall swing. Once a mid-summer alternate event, the Sanderson Farms has crept up to full-event status and will award full field FedEx Cup points and an invite to the Masters for the winner. The event made the move to its current location at the Country Club of Jackson for the 2014-15 season and has remained at the Mississippi-based course for every iteration since then.

The CC of Jackson is a flat and straight-forward par 72 that’s located in a parkland setting and comes in around 7,466 yards on the scorecard. The course isn’t short by any means, but it’s not brutish enough to be described as “tough” either. Birdies can be found here, and while we’re unlikely to see many people challenge outright scoring records, everyone who’s taken down this event since its move to Jackson has gotten to 18 under par or better. Fairways here are traditionally tough to find, but missing isn’t a death sentence either — only one of the past five winners ranked inside the top 30 in driving accuracy here. On the flip side, bombing it near the hole off the tee has paid off as a strategy at Jackson of late, as three of the last four winners here averaged over 312 yards off the tee for the week of their win.

Country Club of Jackson Stats and Info

• Three of the four par 5’s here measure in between 550 and 600 yards; the last four winners here have gone 8 under or better on the par 5’s for the week of their win
• Fairways here are traditionally tough to find, with the field averaging 6-8% less than the tour average in driving accuracy
• Greens here are easier to find, with the field averaging around 2-3% over the tour average in greens in regulation

 


Related PGA DFS Content


Putting Splits

The greens at Jackson are listed as primarily Champion Bermudagrass, which is common to a couple other courses we’ve seen over the last two months in Sedgefield and TPC Southwind. Here’s a more general look at some of the best and worst Bermuda putters in the field relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.

Positive Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Sam Burns: +42 on Bermuda, +12 on all other surfaces
2. Patton Kizzire: +44 on Bermuda, +2 on all other surfaces
3. Sebastian Munoz: +23 on Bermuda, -10 on all other surfaces
*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost

Negative Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Si Woo Kim: -24 on Bermuda, +7 on all other surfaces
2. Rory Sabbatini: -3 on Bermuda, +13 on all other surfaces
3. Cameron Davis: -15 on Bermuda, -1 on all other surfaces

PGA DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel

Henrik Stenson

Stenson grades out nicely in the Awesemo projections this week. The Swede has the highest pure points projection and top-six percentage of anyone in the $8,000 range on DraftKings and comes in with a price tag on that same site, which is $600 cheaper than last week. The price reduction is significant, especially since Stenson is coming off a solid week in Punta Cana. The veteran produced four under-par rounds in the Dominican, a great sight for his backers this week considering how little he’d shown in his post-COVID starts of 2020. Stenson missed the cut at both major championships, and his delayed start to the summer season definitely left some doubts as to what kind of upside he still possessed. The top 25 against a weak field isn’t anything huge, but he did rank near the bottom in putts per greens in regulation last week, so his ball striking was certainly solid to get him into the top 25 there. The good news for those planning on rostering him in big-field GPPs this week is that one solid start doesn’t appear to have built up his public sentiment to “uber-chalk” levels. The 2016 Open Champion is still projecting out under 10% and makes for a solid upper-tier value here in all formats.

The Stats

• Leads the field in shots gained on approach over the last 50 rounds  despite missing two of his last three cuts
• Eighth in driving accuracy last week and 26th in greens in regulation
• His last full-field win on Tour (Wyndham) came on similar Champion Bermuda greens to the ones we’ll see this week

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 7.1%| FanDuel: 13.9%

Doc Redman

Redman is coming off a terrific performance at his first and only start of the 2020-21 season, a third-place finish at the Safeway Open. The 22-year-old closed with a 62 there and led the field in strokes gained on approach, gaining 7.7 against the field in that category alone. While he threw in a few missed cuts in the summer, Redman has shown superb upside for much of 2020, landing multiple top-five finishes in his last three starts and a 29th at the PGA Championship in August. From a statistical perspective, his around-the-green game is the only thing that seems to be holding him back, as he’s now gained two or more strokes putting in four of his last five starts. He’s expensive this week and will garner some ownership but also rates out very well in the site’s projections. Redman has the best pure points projection of anyone under $10,000 on DraftKings and the best top-six percentage of anyone in that range as well. He’s no longer available as a huge value in these weaker fields, but his recent upside has warranted the price increase. If you’re looking for a more balanced approach this week, Redman is a great player to start lineups with here.

The Stats

• Has gained two or more strokes on his approaches now in seven of his last 10 starts; ranks ninth in shots gained ball striking in this field over the last 50 rounds
• Gained over four strokes on his approaches at this venue last season (52nd)

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 12.8%| FanDuel: 24%

 

Low-Owned GPP Flier

Russell Knox

Knox is an interesting target for DFS purposes this week. The Scotsman has endured a mostly horrible 2020, landing an incredible 10 straight missed cuts before finally making a weekend in his last event of the season at the Wyndham — and landing himself a massive 72nd place. New seasons bring new beginnings, however, and Knox looked like a completely different player in his first official 2020-21 start, landing ninth at the Safeway Open. Knox did so with a strong tee-to-green performance (which used to be his trademark prior to his dip in play), gaining eight strokes tee to green at Silverado and three on approaches alone. Knox was in a funk for so long that one good event hasn’t caused his ownership to budge much, and he’s still projected for sub-5% ownership on DraftKings this week and rates out with the sixth-best points projection of any player in the $7,000 range. Knox used to be a fixture in the top-50 players in the OWGR and has three pro wins to his credit, including a WGC win and Irish Open crown. In this field, if he brings a similar level of play that he did at his first fall start. The payoff will again be immense for those who risk him.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 4.1%| FanDuel: 6.5%

Bonus: DraftKings Top Three Under Five

I am targeting three players here that I ultimately think will end up under (or close) to 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We’re searching for boom-or-bust players here with an almost 100% focus on upside.

Beau Hossler ($7,100)

• Hossler is another player who has shown better consistency of late, landing three made cuts in a row; he also shot 15 under par in his final three rounds at the Safeway Open
• Like many of the past few winners here, he can blast it off the tee and has gained at least one stroke or more off the tee in each of his past four starts
• Landed 10th at this venue in his rookie year in 2017 and has a similar style of game to the past couple winners here

Wyndham Clark ($6,900)

• Clark started to show a bit better consistency in the ball-striking department at the end of last season, gaining strokes on approaches in his last two starts of 2019-20
• He was great off the tee in his last start (gaining three strokes in two rounds) and should give himself plenty of looks at birdies this week on the par 5’s if he brings that same kind of consistency
• Gained 7.7 strokes putting on the greens here in 2017 when he finished 17th

Davis Riley ($6,700)

• Played predominately on the Korn Ferry Tour last season, winning twice; Mississippi native for those into narratives
• Comes in with semi-terrible recent form, having missed his last two cuts, but has the same kind of talent we’ve seen shine through here from recent winners
• Nineteenth in putting, second in birdie average and 17th in driving distance on the Korn Ferry Tour speaks to the kind of profile we’ve seen have instant success here


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