The Approach: PGA DFS Picks Based off Awesemo’s Rankings for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

The PGA Tour begins a two-week stay in Vegas with the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open this week. This first Vegas-based event will take place out at longstanding venue TPC Summerlin, host of the Shriners for well over a decade. Summerlin is a par-71 venue located out in the Vegas burbs that measures in at over 7,255 yards. Next week the C.J. Cup (normally a South Korean-based event) will take place at historic Shadow Creek. The two-week Vegas roll-through is significant as the extra stop has conveniently jacked up the field for the Shriners this year. We have 11 players in attendance this week who currently sit in the top 25 in the OWGR, with No. 6 Bryson DeChambeau leading the charge in that category.

The venue this week plays as one of the easiest on Tour, and with the extra dose of elite talent, expect birdies to be flying early and often here. TPC Summerlin is a straight-forward and traditional desert stop. It features average-sized bentgrass greens and is open in most places off the tee, with water only factoring in on the last few holes. One of the course’s most unique features is the fact it is located at altitude, so we typically see balls fly a long way here, with the average driving distance for the week of this event often 10-12 yards above the tour average. The course’s best defense is the wind, but without much water, even that hasn’t stopped the players from reaching 18 under or better as the winning score here in most years. 2017 featured terrible weather and high winds — Patrick Cantlay won at 9 under — but each year since has seen winning scores in the high teens or better.

TPC Summerlin Stats and Info

• Second shot course that emphasizes strong iron play and putting; the last five winners here have either gained three strokes or more in approach or putting (or both).
• Driving accuracy is typically down off the tour average by a couple percent, but driving distance is generally 10-12 yards more likely due to the thin air and drives running through fairway
• Nine of the par 4’s measure in between 440 and 500 yards; the course has three par 5’s with the longest being 585 yards, and all three are reachable in two thanks to the altitude

Putting Splits

The greens at TPC Summerlin are listed as primarily bentgrass. Some other prominent venues with similar green characteristics include TPC Deere Run and TPC Boston. Here’s a more general look at some of the best and worst bentgrass putters in the field relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.

Positive Bentgrass Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Cameron Davis: +7 on bentgrass, -5 on all other surfaces
2. Adam Hadwin: +23 on bentgrass, +4 on all other surfaces
3. Harris English: +32 on bentgrass, +14 on all other surfaces
*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost

Negative Bentgrass Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Patton Kizzire: -9 on bentgrass, +34 on all other surfaces
2. Matt Kuchar: +4 on bentgrass, +40 on all other surfaces
3. Lanto Griffin: +4 on bentgrass  +18 on all other surfaces

PGA DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel

Scottie Scheffler: Grades: A, Values: B

Scheffler returned to action last week after a bout with COVID forced him to miss the second major of the season. He was the most expensive player across the industry in DFS last week, so his 37th-place finish wasn’t exactly what most people were hoping for. That said, there were some definite positives from his week there that should flow over into this event. The American maintained his usual consistency off the tee, ranking 11th in that category, which included being as high as 14th in driving accuracy. He also continued his good run of around-the-green play, which has seen him gain strokes around the green now in five of his last six starts. The only thing holding back Scheffler from a better finish last week was his iron play, which improved in the final round. Before last week, though, he’d been one of the best on his approaches, gaining multiple strokes with his irons in three straight starts. While I admittedly prefer the upside of Matthew Wolff in GPPs, Scheffler actually rates out with a better pure points projection and value score this week in the Awesemo model, making him one of the strongest targets in the mid-$9,000 range on DraftKings. With he and Wolff splitting ownership, neither should be overly chalky, and either makes for a good way to start more balanced lineups.

The Stats

• Has gained strokes off the tee now in 12 straight starts dating back to last season
• Ranks sixth in shots gained tee to green in the field over the last 50 rounds
• Ranks fifth in birdies or better over the last 50 rounds in this field

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 14.6%| FanDuel: 16.9%

Louis Oosthuizen: Grades: B, Values: B

Our favorite South African comes into this week riding high after a solo third-place finish at the U.S. Open just a few weeks ago. Even if he still hasn’t managed to cross the finish line well in a U.S.-based event, there’s little doubt that the form he’s showing at the moment makes him a solid target this week for DFS purposes. A sixth at the WGC a month and a half ago and a third at the last major championship speak to the kind of form he can muster when everything is clicking. He comes into this week rested and having gained multiple strokes ball striking in five straight starts now. When he’s feeling it with the irons, good things generally happen (eventually) with the putter for the 2010 Open Champion, and his prices on the major sites this week feel drastically low. He’s ranked under the likes of Rickie Fowler, Jason Kokrak and the enigmatic Jason Day on DraftKings, which doesn’t feel correct given the consistency he’s shown of late. For Awesemo purposes, Oosthuizen has the best value rating of anyone over $8,500 in price on DraftKings, and the best total points and top-six probability of anyone in the $8,000 range there, period. It’s not a major, but everything here checks out to make him a nice DFS target this week.

The Stats

• Has gained strokes on approach and off the tee in five straight starts
• Ninth in total shots gained over the last 24 rounds and 14th in birdies or better over that same period

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 14.1%| FanDuel: 14.1%

Low-Owned GPP flier

Zach Johnson

Johnson has pounded out solid results for over a month now, but the DFS world seems unwilling to trust that this is anything but a fad. Despite seeing his price on DraftKings drop by $1,100 over last week, Johnson’s $8,500 price tag at the Shriners has still failed to garner him much love from an ownership perspective. He’s projecting around 5% on that site and even lower elsewhere. Johnson’s upside likely isn’t being respected enough here, as the two-time major winner has recorded top-25 finishes in three of his last four starts now, including an eighth at the last major. Johnson may not have the most elite ball-striking stats, but he’s trending up in those categories and ranked eighth in shots gained on approach last week at the Sanderson, where his 23rd-place finish likely would have been better if not for a slow week on and around the greens. Johnson ranks ninth and 15th in shots gained putting and around the green though over the last 50 rounds, so he could easily bounce back for a big week here. He rates out just as well as several other more popular players in the mid-$8,000 range in the Awesemo model and makes for a great pivot play on DraftKings.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: : DraftKings: 5.1%| FanDuel: 3.5%

Bonus: DraftKings Top Three Under Five

I am targeting three players here that I ultimately think will end up under (or close) to 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We’re searching for boom-or-bust players here with an almost 100% focus on upside.

Aaron Wise ($7,400)

• Vegas native who has played great at this event and at altitude over his career; record at Shriners includes two top-15s in four starts
• Coming off one of his best weeks in over a year on tour and still projecting at under 5% ownership

Martin Laird ($6,400)

• Terrific record at this week’s event, which includes a win here in 2009 and runner-up finish in 2010; has made cut here in four of last five seasons
• Coming off solid finish at Sanderson Farms (28th) where he gained 2.9 strokes on approach and over a stroke around the green; rounding into form after extra long COVID layoff in summer

Wyndham Clark ($6,100)

• Struck the ball well last week through two rounds but had uncharacteristically bad putting performance on the weekend; should expect a quick bounce back with that club, as he ranks 22nd in the field in long-term form in shots gained putting
• Big bust factor, but improvement in ball striking is noticeable and should be in for some decent weeks ahead when putter heats up again


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