We’re one tournament away from the Masters with our last stop coming in the great state of Texas. The Vivint Houston Open — formerly the Shell Houston Open — was moved into the fall part of schedule last year, but for one final time in 2020, it will get to act as the warmup for the players before Augusta. The main difference this year with the event, other than the sponsor, will be a change in venue, as the tournament is moving on from its old host at the Golf Club of Houston. So how will that impact our fantasy golf lineups and PGA DFS picks for this week’s tournament? We’ll get into that.
Memorial Park Golf Course is a public links track that was rebuilt by the city of Houston in 2019 with help from designer Tom Doak and PGA pro Brooks Koepka, who is in the field this week. The venue is a parkland golf course with light trees and little water. From a comparison standpoint, the best corollary is likely to be the last public golf course we saw on Tour, which was TPC Harding Park at the PGA Championship. It’s doubtful Memorial Park will play that tough, but at 7,400 yards, it’s decently long and looks set to play as a par 70 — the Tour finally confirmed this late Tuesday night. Three par 5’s will still be in play here, and given the setting, look for the course to play relatively “driver heavy” with strong off-tee and tee-to-green play likely winning the day.
Memorial Park Golf Course Stats and Info
• Par 70 venue that plays approximately 7,432 yards
• Three par 5’s in play this week, with all three playing over 570 yards
• Course only has water in play on four holes and only 19 bunkers. It should mean relatively big landing spaces for drivers off most tees
Putting Splits
The greens at Memorial Park are listed as MiniVerde Bermudagrass. They should play somewhat similar to the greens we saw at the old host club of this event. We’ve also seen Bermuda used recently at the Sanderson Farms and in Bermuda last week. Here’s a more general look at some of the best and worst Bermuda putters in the field, relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.
Positive Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds
1. Charl Schwartzel: +21 on Bermuda, -1 on all other surfaces
2. J.T. Poston: +40 on Bermuda, +17 on all other surfaces
3. Sungjae Im: +34 on Bermuda, -13 on all other surfaces
*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost
Negative Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds
1. Danny Willett: -13 on Bermuda, +16 on all other surfaces
2. Jordan Spieth: +7 on Bermuda, +21 on all other surfaces
3. Tony Finau: +7 on Bermuda, -4 on all other surfaces
Fantasy Golf: PGA DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel
PGA DFS Pick: Russell Henley: Grades: A, Values: B
Henley comes into this event off of two incredible starts at the CJ Cup and Zozo Championship. The three-time Tour winner has been playing at a high level from a statistical perspective ever since the restart began, and it’s started to finally pay off with some big weeks. He gained an incredible 9.2 strokes on his approaches at the Zozo but couldn’t find a putt there, losing five strokes on the greens. Henley’s putter has been a rollercoaster for much of the past three years, but it’s worth noting here that his career stats on Bermuda make that his best surface, and all three of his wins have come on Bermuda greens.
Wanna bet?
The Awesemo model has Russell Henley grading out with an overall “A” for this week’s tournament. Based on where he is in the expert model, he could be a good bet to win with his odds to win at +2200. Click on the image below to start shopping for the best edge in betting and check out all the player props available for this week’s Houston Open PGA Tournament.
A former winner of this event in 2017 — at the old venue — Henley grades out well this week in the Awesemo fantasy golf model despite being priced up at his highest point of 2020 in this field. Henley has the sixth-best points projection of anyone in the field and the highest point projection of anyone priced in the $9,000 range on DraftKings. Despite being priced up, the model doesn’t think he’s too expensive, as he also possesses the best value score of anyone priced $9,000 or more. He’s a solid roster starter this week on both major sites.
The Stats:
• First in shots gained on approach and shots gained tee to green over the last 50 rounds
• Third in birdie opportunities and first in bogey avoidance
• Three tour wins. All have come on Bermuda greens, and he has putt better on this kind of surface than any other throughout his career
Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 20.7% | FanDuel: 18.7%
PGA DFS Pick: Erik van Rooyen: Grades: B, Values: B
Van Rooyen comes into this week’s event showcasing some solid form. The South African finished a tidy 23rd at the US Open in early September, where he gained 5.4 strokes on his approaches alone for the week. He also played multiple times over in Europe afterwards, finishing sixth at the Scottish open and 27th at the BMW PGA the week after. The nice run of form has gone overlooked a bit by the bigger DFS sites, as his price remains quite affordable.
From a statistical perspective, van Rooyen is right up there with the elites in terms of his ball-striking numbers, as he ranks out 10th in shots gained tee to green and 15th in shots gained off the tee over his last 50 rounds. On Awesemo, van Rooyen comes out looking like a great play too, as he has the best value score attributed to anyone in the $7,000 range on DraftKings and the second-highest points projection of anyone in that same range. With an affordable price tag and ownership that shouldn’t get too out of control, he grades out as a nice target regardless of what format you are playing this week.
The Stats:
• 10th in shots gained tee to green over the last 50 rounds
• Made cut at both major championships in 2020 and has four top-25 finishes on the PGA in his last eight starts
Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 10.9% | FanDuel: 8.9%
Low-Owned PGA DFS GPP flier
PGA DFS Pick: Sam Burns
Burns is another player in this field with wildly good Bermudagrass splits. The 24-year-old nearly got there for his first win at the Safeway Open to kick off the Fall swing in Napa, but fell short after holding the 36-hole lead. Burns is a player, though, and the fact he was able to get himself out to a multi-stroke lead at the Safeway provided us a good glimpse into what he can do when there are a few more longer holes and driver opportunities in play.
Burns has already had some good results in the fall, and this will also be his fifth start of the swing season. For whatever reason, sentiment on him is somewhat down after he posted a 34th at the Shriners because his ownership levels are barely projecting over 5%, as of writing. He ranks sixth in birdie-or-better percentage and third in shots gained off the tee over the last 50 rounds in this field, though, and certainly should benefit from the longer setup here, which contains three long par 5’s. At just $7,500 on DraftKings, the price is right here to make him a GPP target for fantasy golf this week.
Projected PGA DFS ownership: : DraftKings: 5.2% | FanDuel: 3.3%
Bonus: DraftKings Top Three Under Five
I am targeting three players here that I ultimately think will end up under (or close to) 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We’re searching for boom-or-bust players here with an almost 100% focus on upside.
Beau Hossler ($6,900)
• Texas native who nearly won this event back in 2018, comes into this week off the back of six straight made cuts
• Approach game remains touch and go, but has gained strokes off the tee in six straight starts where shot tracker was available, and his work around and on greens remain up there with the best
• Ninth in birdies last week and projects out under 5% in ownership
Patrick Rodgers ($6,700)
• Solid price in just a medium-strength field for a player who ranks 16th in shots gained putting over the last 50 rounds
• Hasn’t played great of late — which is why his salary is down — but remains consistent enough off the tee that he can challenge here if the rest of his game is alive
• Has had some of his best results around this time of year and looks on track for very low ownership
Andrew Putnam ($6,400)
• Comes in having made four straight cuts now and is really rolling with his putter, which remains his best weapon
• Longer course doesn’t necessarily favor him, but he did rank fifth in greens in regulation and ninth in driving accuracy last week, so he is starting to strike it better
• Price is big factor here with a fairly straightforward setup. If he stays good with the putter a solid DraftKings score should emerge here
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Looking for more fantasy golf and PGA DFS picks content? We’ve got loads of fantasy golf articles, data, cheat sheets, and more on the Awesemo PGA home page. Just click HERE.
