The end of the regular season is upon us as the Tour heads to one of its mainstay events in the Wyndham Championship. Over the past decade or so, this stop has become synonymous with a lot of drama, mainly for the Tour’s fringe players as they all scramble to try and keep themselves inside the top 25 of the Tour’s FedEx Cup rankings. The repercussions of finishing outside or inside that line are massive for the average Tour player as full Tour status and a trip to the lucrative playoff events awaits those who can stay the course.
As for the actual course the players will be competing on, Sedgefield Country Club rates out as one of the easiest venues on Tour — the ninth easiest last season. It plays as a 7,127-yard par 70 that features Champion Bermuda greens and has water hazards that come into play on six holes. The Donald Ross-designed course isn’t overly tricky, though, as good iron shots will get paid off with birdie looks on greens that often become very receptive due to late summer storms. This week should be no different as some rain is in the forecast. Donald Ross course history at venues like East Lake and Detroit Golf Club is something to consider although better corollaries for the actual layout and specs of Sedgefield include the likes of Harbour Town and TPC Sawgrass.
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Sedgefield Country Club Course Stats and Info
• The last four winners of this event have all finished inside the top three in shots gained on approach for the week of their win; four of the last five winners have also ranked inside the top 10 here in driving accuracy
• Fairways at Sedgefield are generally easier to hit than normal; the field here hit over 65% of fairways, which is 3-4% above Tour average
•Seven to eight of the par 4’s fall within the 400-450 yard range, and both par 5’s play quite easy and don’t require big length to reach in two; its very much a par-4 scoring specialist’s delight
Putting Splits
The greens at Sedgefield are Champion Bermuda and similar in strain to greens we just saw at TPC Southwind as well as to those at Quail Hollow. It’s a big change from last week and could lead to some strange “pop” weeks with the putter. Here’s a look at some of the best and worst Bermuda putters in the field, relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.
Positive Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds
1. Sam Burns: +44 on Bermuda, +13 on all other surfaces
2. J.T. Poston: +33 on Bermuda, +2 on all other surfaces
3. Brooks Koepka: +22 on Bermuda, -2 on all other surfaces
*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost
Negative Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds
1. Shane Lowry: -10 on Bermuda, +7 on all other surfaces
2. Tommy Fleetwood: -1 on Bermuda, +14 on all other surfaces
3. Cameron Davis: -20 on Bermuda, +1 on all other surfaces
Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel
Justin Rose: Grades: A Values: B
It was only a matter time before players like Paul Casey and Rose got their acts together, and it just so happened that both men did at the year’s first major. Both men move onto Sedgefield this week for some extra playoff positioning before the FedEx Cup playoffs, and of the two, Rose looks like the slightly better option for DFS purposes. From a value perspective on DraftKings, he comes out with a solid score in that area in the Awesemo rankings and also projects with a better top-six percentage than Casey, who remains $400 more expensive on that site. Rose has only played Sedgefield once, back in 2009, but it did produce a fifth-place finish, and it is worth noting that he’s been much better on these type of shorter, more technical tracks later in his career, landing a win at Colonial and top 10 recently at Harbour Town. He gained over four strokes on approach last week, his best mark in that stat in over a year. A late-season win in this weaker field wouldn’t be surprising for the veteran who has averaged around one win a year on Tour over his career.
The Stats:
• Gained over four strokes on approach last week for the first since 2019
• Despite landing three missed cuts in a row coming into last week, he now has three top-15 finishes over his last six starts; his recent form is better than it appears as a result and could lead to slightly suppressed ownership relative to his actual value this week
• Grades out as best value in the $9,000 range on DraftKings in Awesemo model
Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 14.1%| FanDuel: 14%
Sungjae Im: Grades: A Values: B
Much like Rose and Casey heading into last week, it feels like we can’t go much longer without some kind of big week from Im, who has been in a pretty horrid slump ever since landing a 10th way back at the Colonial. The South Korean did flash a touch better ball striking at TPC Harding Park, gaining strokes on both approach and off the tee in his two rounds before exiting with a missed cut on Friday. His main issue last week was a putter that wouldn’t cooperate, but that problem seems unlikely to carry over to Sedgefield given the Bermuda greens that will be in play. Im’s been a huge Bermuda splits player since coming on Tour, landing four of his six top-five finishes (including his only win) on the surface. He also ranks 11th in shots gained putting over the last 50 rounds on Bermuda. He ranks out well in the Awesemo site tools as well, coming in with the best top-six percentage and value rating of anyone in the $8,000 range on DraftKings. At some very palatable ownership projections (see below), he makes for a nice bounce-back target in this week’s weaker field running.
The Stats:
• Sixth at Sedgefield last season where he gained over three strokes on approach and putting
• Has gained positive strokes off the tee now in three of last four starts
Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 20%| FanDuel: 25%
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Low-Owned GPP Flier
Tom Lewis
Despite nearly storming the field late for the win at the WGC Memphis event two weeks ago, Lewis projects out here as a low-owned target in DFS circles against this week’s far weaker field. The lack of respect here seems worth taking advantage of as the now 29-year-old Englishman has proven over the past couple of years that he is great at piling up the birdies when he’s in form. Lewis led the field in birdies made in Memphis, shooting the best weekend score of the field there and has won four times in his professional career now. The most recent win came on the Korn Ferry Tour in late 2019, where he bested a field filled with many of the same names he’ll be competing against this week by three shots. Lewis will be seeing Sedgefield for the first time here but certainly took well to another Donald Ross designed venue in Detroit recently, where he finished 12th without showcasing his best tee to green stuff. A missed cut last week could actually be a blessing in disguise too given that only two of the last four winners here have played the made the cut at PGA Championship the week prior. Lewis’ upside certainly seems underrated at the moment, making him a perfect target for GPPs this week.
Projected PGA DFS ownership: : DraftKings: 6%| FanDuel: 4.9%
Bonus: DraftKings Top Three Under Five
I am targeting five players here that I ultimately think will end up under (or close) to 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We’re searching for boom-or-bust players here with an almost 100% focus on upside.
Aaron Wise ($7,000)
Wise put in the round of the tournament at the Barracuda, shooting a +19 (62 in regular scoring) on Sunday there in a round that included 10 birdies. The potential has always been there for the former college standout, and he can go super low when he’s feeling it, as evidenced by his first win at the Byron Nelson where he got to 23 under par. He shot rounds of 65 and 64 at this venue last year and projects with minuscule ownership.
C.T. Pan ($6,500)
Pan finished runner-up at this venue back in 2018 and certainly projects as the type of golfer who should enjoy this venue when his game is in tune. He’s been bad with the putter of late but has been flashing some good form with his irons, including an effort at the Workday that saw him gain 9.4 strokes on approach for the week. If he makes the weekend and fires well with the flat stick for even one round, he’ll likely pay off his tiny salary here.
Austin Cook ($6,500)
Cook’s been making cuts lately but has struggled to put together a solid effort over four rounds. There are signs that a good week may be on the horizon, though, as he gained 3.4 strokes on approach his last time out in Minnesota but couldn’t pair it with a good putting week. The former RSM Classic winner has proven he can have some monster weeks on Bermuda with the flat stick, though, and rates out as a nice GPP target at this price.
