The tour’s adjusted fall swing continues this week as we head out West and into the Hillside of the L.A. outskirts for the Zozo Championship. This is only the second year of existence of this event, but it was originally created to be part of the tour’s “Asian” swing with its host course being located over in Chiba, Japan. This year the Jack Nicklaus designed Sherwood Country Club will be hosting the event for our PGA DFS picks, a venue which has seen some time on tour as the course that was once used for the annual Chevron Challenge event (now the Hero Challenge and held in the Bahamas), an 18-man limited field tournament.
Sherwood is set to play as a short par 72, coming in at just around 7,100 yards, but the venue is about as untraditional as they come. The setup includes five par 5’s for the players to tackle (and potentially rack up birdies or eagles on) but five par 3’s as well. The shorter scoring holes will undoubtedly lead to some low scores this week, but it’s worth noting that past iterations of the Chevron Challenge didn’t necessarily favor the biggest of hitters. Yes, Tiger Woods has won here five times, but the likes of Jim Furyk, Luke Donald, Graeme McDowell and Zach Johnson all did too.
As such, look for this tree-lined venue to play well to those with good all-around ball striking (not just power) this week. The venue includes some elevation changes and what will likely be quick bentgrass greens, so solid around-the green play could be a huge asset here as well.
Sherwood Country Club Stats and Info
• Five par 5’s on the course, only one of which comes in at longer than 570-yards
• Two par 4’s that measure in under 380 yards, with the other six all playing between 400-480 yards
• Water comes into play on eight of the holes, with a couple of the par 3’s playing as semi-island greens
• With the short course, expect wedge play and approaches from over 200 yards (on the par 5’s) to be vital this week.
Putting Splits
The greens at Sherwood Country Club are listed as primarily bentgrass (possibly with some poa mixed in since we’re on the West coast). This makes them at least a little similar to last week’s in terms of grass type. Here’s a more general look at some of the best and worst bentgrass putters in the field, relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.
Positive Bentgrass Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds
1. Hideki Matsuyama: +1 on bentgrass, -24 on all other surfaces
2. Viktor Hovland: +10 on bentgrass, -17 on all other surfaces
3. Alex Noren: +33 on bentgrass, +5 on all other surfaces
*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost
Negative Bentgrass Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds
1. Tommy Fleetwood: -12 on bentgrass, +8 on all other surfaces
2. Cameron Champ: -35 on bentgrass, -10 on all other surfaces
3. Daniel Berger: +4 on bentgrass, +13 on all other surfaces
Zozo Championship PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel
PGA DFS Pick: Justin Thomas: Grades: B, Values: C
Thomas looked like he was on the verge of inserting himself into contention for the win last week, but he was ultimately derailed by his own poor play on Sunday, which included six bogies en route to a final round 74. The 12th looks solid enough on paper, but considering where he was before starting the final round, the result will be disappointing for the No. 3 player in the world. His play last week was encouraging from a couple viewpoints, though, as he once again showcased dominant approach play which saw him gain 3.2 strokes on approach alone. Thomas has remained dialed in with his irons and seems like he’s heating up again with those scoring clubs, as the numbers he put up Shadow Creek marked his best effort in that area since the PGA Championship in August. From an Awesemo perspective, he comes in with the third-best points projection score behind the top two salaried players on DraftKings, but he has a much better value score than both and a better win percentage than Xander Schauffele in the sites model. With his numbers still trending well, everything here screams green light to fire up Thomas this week as an anchor play at what are looking like very palatable ownership numbers.
The Stats:
• Has gained strokes on his approaches in nine straight events now
• Coming off best U.S. Open finish two starts ago at Winged Foot
• DFS Price has stayed the same in most spots, while others in his tier have crept up considerably
Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 18.4% | FanDuel: 24.4%
PGA DFS Pick: Matthew Fitzpatrick: Grades: C, Values: C
Fitzpatrick put in another solid week at Shadow Creek, ultimately finishing 12th. The 26-year-old is all the way up to 19th in the OWGR despite not having recorded a win since early 2018. Despite missing the cut at the U.S. Open, he’s played good golf since then, landing a seventh at the BMW PGA Championship — an event where he was near the leaders around the halfway point. From a value perspective, his price this week could also be classified as one of the strangest in terms of movement, as he’s actually gone down $600 on DraftKings despite having a solid week at the CJ Cup. The movement hasn’t done a ton for his ownership either, as he’s still projecting at reasonable numbers despite the drop. Form-wise, he’s now gained 2.5 or more strokes on his approaches in three straight starts after gaining 4.7 last week in that area. On Awesemo, he projects out as a strong play too, as he has the second-best pure points projection of anyone under $9,000 on DraftKings this week and ranks ahead of numerous players in the $9,000 range. This shorter course could suit him, as his consistent iron play should give him plenty of chances to get hot with his putter again this week.
The Stats:
• Has gained multiple strokes with his irons in three straight starts now
• Has recorded four top-10 finishes over his last eight starts
• Saw his DraftKings price dip $600 this week
Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 14.1% | FanDuel: 13%
Low-Owned PGA DFS GPP Flier
PGA DFS Pick: Cameron Champ ($6,800)
Champ had an interesting week at Shadow Creek, ultimately landing a 42nd-place finish, but finishing with more DraftKings points than players like Si Woo Kim and Brooks Koepka who finished 15-20 places ahead of him in the standings. The two-time winner on the PGA actually had one of his best pure ball-striking weeks of his career, ending the week gaining a stroke off the tee but 6.4 strokes on his approaches. The move was quite dramatic when you consider he hadn’t gained more than two strokes on approach in an event since the Charles Schwab in April. Champ was done in at the CJ Cup by a putter, which saw him lose 4.3 strokes to the field. That’s an area of concern right now, as he’s been terrible with that club for over a month. But from a DFS perspective, his cheap DraftKings perspective and low ownership projections make him a nice buy-low candidate this week on a venue with five par 5’s in play. Champ landed three eagles last week and has ranked inside the top 35 in bird-or-better percentage in his two years on tour now. If he keeps up the good ball striking here, an even better scoring week could be ahead.
Projected PGA DFS ownership: : DraftKings: 3.5% | FanDuel: 2.3%
Bonus: DraftKings Top Three Under Five
I am targeting three players here that I ultimately think will end up under (or close) to 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We’re searching for boom-or-bust players here with an almost 100% focus on upside.
Jordan Spieth ($6,900)
• Ended last week with one of the best rounds of the day, shooting a 5-under 67. Shot eight under over final two rounds.
• Gained over five strokes putting last two days, but also had solid ball striking and gained strokes off the tee on Saturday and Sunday.
• Was 14th in birdies made last week, and 85.0 DraftKings points saw him finish with more points than Thomas and Collin Morikawa (despite finishing 38th).
• Currently has a 4.8% ownership projection on DraftKings.
Byeong Hun An ($6,700)
• An’s a pure stat play, as he was clearly was hitting the ball well all week at Shadow Creek, ranking 11th in shots gained tee to green and 11th on approach but finished 76th in putting.
• Price has stayed flat here and is projecting with almost no ownership at just a projected 3% right now on DraftKings for the week.
• He’s been a solid birdie producer throughout his career and is trending very well off the tee and on approach at the moment, so betting on some positive regression on the greens here at this price makes sense.
Danny Lee ($6,400)
• Struck the ball well last week, gaining over two strokes on approach and off the tee.
• Saw his putter start firing a bit last Sunday, as he closed with a final-round 66.
• The shorter course should set up well for him, especially given how well he’s hitting it right now, and he outperformed most in this range last week but didn’t see his price move up at all on DraftKings.
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