PGA DFS Picks & Stats for The 3M Open This Week

Having a variety of viewpoints and data points can be both a curse and a blessing. In this DFS golf advice article, I sift through all of the data and give you top picks from all four statistical angles that make up PGA DFS. This week the PGA Tour heads to the Twin Cities for the third showing of the 3M Open. Let’s take a deep dive into the stats that matter most and what players fit those molds for our PGA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel this week.

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PGA DFS Picks This Week: 3M Open

There will be 156 golfers teeing it up for the 3M Open and a lot of shifting given the British Open last week. Already a few big names have withdrawn, like Brian Harman, while Robert MacIntyre has been added to the field. Of the names in the field this week, only two have not teed it up on a registered professional event in the last 11 weeks: Ryan Hall and Brent Snyder.

Recent Form

Mito Pereira is making the most of his starts via the battlefield promotion from the Korn Ferry Tour, coming in fifth at the Barbasol last week. That was his fifth top-10 in the last 11 weeks across the two tours. He has only one missed cut in his PGA Tour debut as well, showing quite a bit of upside in his young career. Louis Oosthuizen, who is still in the field at the time of writing, leads a list of five names that have three top-10s in the past 11 weeks; Luke List, Steve Stricker, Hank Lebioda and Troy Merritt are the others. Merritt, however, has missed the cut in each of the last two weeks after losing in the playoff three weeks ago.

Lebioda and Stricker are joined by MacIntyre, Jhonattan Vegas and Kyle Stanley as the only five golfers in the field that have six starts and six made cuts in this dataset.

Negative Recent Form

It has been a bit of a rough spurt for Grayson Murray and Martin Trainer as of late, missing seven cuts in the last 11 weeks. Trainer has made zero cuts in that time. Matt Every is in the same camp as Trainer but has been in the news of late after chucking his putter into the pond at last week’s Barbasol event and then pulling out with a back injury. Dylan Frittelli broke out of his fog last week with a top-five at The British Open, but he had missed six of his last seven cuts heading into the week. Harry Higgs is in a similar boat, missing three straight and six of his last eight. However, he has a top-five at a major mixed in.

Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Recent Form

Robert MacIntyre ($9,000)
Hank Lebioda ($7,900)
Mito Pereira ($7,600)
Jhonattan Vegas ($7,500)

Course History: TPC Twin Cities

There are only two years of data to observe here, with the event starting in 2019. That year it was won by Matthew Wolff, who is one of only three golfers to come in the top 25 each year. The other two are Charles Howell III and Tony Finau. Finau was able to make the cut yet again in a major but was never really a factor at any point in the tournament.

Eleven other golfers have made the cut in each of the last two years: Lebioda, Frittelli, Cameron Triangle, Richy Werenski, Pat Perez, Tom Hoge, Brice Garnett, Denny McCarthy, Patton Kizzire, Jason Dufner and Bronson Burgoon.

Latest PGA DFS Content

Negative

Only two golfers have teed it up two times here and missed the cut each time: Chesson Hadley and Wes Roach. Roach has made his last five cuts, so something will have to give this week.

Click here for the google sheet link.

Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Course History

Tony Finau ($10,700)
Matthew Wolff ($9,700)
Charles Howell III ($7,700)

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Strokes Gained

Finau’s and Wolff’s strengths typically come from a long ball with solid to above-average iron games. Those will be two of the main focal points this week.

Strokes Gained Tee to Green

Keegan Bradley
Tony Finau
Dustin Johnson
Sergio Garcia
Patrick Reed
Bubba Watson
Doug Ghim
Louis Oosthuizen
Chris Kirk
Emiliano Grillo
Jhonattan Vegas

Strokes Gained Off Tee

Sergio Garcia
Jhonattan Vegas
Bubba Watson
Cameron Champ
Luke List
Dustin Johnson
Charles Howell III
Keith Mitchell
Tom Lewis
Cameron Davis

Strokes Gained on Approach

Keegan Bradley
Matthew NeSmith
Emiliano Grillo
Stewart Cink
Doug Ghim
Chez Reavie
Cameron Percy
Russell Knox
Tony Finau
Kyle Stanley

Strokes Gained Around Green

Fabian Gomez
Tony Finau
Louis Oosthuizen
Rickie Fowler
Patrick Reed
Byeong Hun An
Chris Kirk
Dylan Frittelli
Wyndham Clark
Robby Shelton

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Strokes Gained Putting

Louis Oosthuizen
Brendon Todd
J.T. Poston
Chesson Hadley
Patrick Reed
Kristoffer Ventura
Rhein Gibson
Brian Harman
Patton Kizzire
Hunter Mahan
Brice Garnett

For the yearly strokes gained ranks, Click here.

Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Strokes Gained

Dustin Johnson ($11,300)
Emiliano Grillo (9,300)
Keegan Bradley ($8,800)

Old School Statistics

There will be a heavier emphasis on ball striking this week, as the course will yield plenty of birdie looks with quality shots on the first two.

Proximity

Emiliano Grillo
Kyle Stanley
Vaughn Taylor
Doug Ghim
Chez Reavie
Russell Knox
Cameron Percy
Hank Lebioda
Chris Kirk
Brian Stuard

Driving Distance

Ryan Brehm
Cameron Champ
Dustin Johnson
Matthew Wolff
Sergio Garcia
Wyndham Clark
Brandon Hagy
Keith Mitchell
Luke List
Jhonattan Vegas

Scrambling

Hank Lebioda
Charles Howell III
Brian Harman
Doug Ghim
Cameron Tringale
Aaron Baddeley
Louis Oosthuizen
Scott Stallings
Andrew Putnam
Pat Perez
Chris Kirk

Putting 15-20 Yards

Aaron Baddeley
Rafael Campos
Brendon Todd
Ryan Moore
Matthew Wolff
Brandt Snedeker
Pat Perez
Cameron Tringale
Mark Hubbard
Patrick Reed
Patton Kizzire

Birdie or Better

Patton Kizzire
Cameron Davis
Patrick Reed
Dustin Johnson
Cameron Tringale
Tony Finau
Emiliano Grillo
Stewart Cink
Matthew Wolff
Maverick McNealy
Sergio Garcia

Click here to view in Google Sheets.

Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Statistical Analysis

Cameron Tringale ($9,500)
Maverick McNealy ($8,400)
Doug Ghim ($7,900)

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Author

Jason Rouslin

Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].