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Expert 3M Open PGA DFS Picks This Week for DraftKings & FanDuel | Monday, July 19, 2021

Jason Rouslin

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Daily fantasy golf PGA DFS picks DraftKings FanDUel Houston Open Tony Finau ownership projections rankings odds lines predictions optimal optimizer lineups this week today tonight Tony Finau

Having a variety of viewpoints and data points can be both a curse and a blessing. In this DFS golf advice article, I sift through all of the data and give you top picks from all four statistical angles that make up PGA DFS. This week the PGA Tour heads to the Twin Cities for the third showing of the 3M Open. Let’s take a deep dive into the stats that matter most and what players fit those molds for our PGA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel this week.


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PGA DFS Picks This Week: 3M Open

There will be 156 golfers teeing it up for the 3M Open and a lot of shifting given the British Open last week. Already a few big names have withdrawn, like Brian Harman, while Robert MacIntyre has been added to the field. Of the names in the field this week, only two have not teed it up on a registered professional event in the last 11 weeks: Ryan Hall and Brent Snyder.

Recent Form

Mito Pereira is making the most of his starts via the battlefield promotion from the Korn Ferry Tour, coming in fifth at the Barbasol last week. That was his fifth top-10 in the last 11 weeks across the two tours. He has only one missed cut in his PGA Tour debut as well, showing quite a bit of upside in his young career. Louis Oosthuizen, who is still in the field at the time of writing, leads a list of five names that have three top-10s in the past 11 weeks; Luke List, Steve Stricker, Hank Lebioda and Troy Merritt are the others. Merritt, however, has missed the cut in each of the last two weeks after losing in the playoff three weeks ago.

Lebioda and Stricker are joined by MacIntyre, Jhonattan Vegas and Kyle Stanley as the only five golfers in the field that have six starts and six made cuts in this dataset.

Negative Recent Form

It has been a bit of a rough spurt for Grayson Murray and Martin Trainer as of late, missing seven cuts in the last 11 weeks. Trainer has made zero cuts in that time. Matt Every is in the same camp as Trainer but has been in the news of late after chucking his putter into the pond at last week’s Barbasol event and then pulling out with a back injury. Dylan Frittelli broke out of his fog last week with a top-five at The British Open, but he had missed six of his last seven cuts heading into the week. Harry Higgs is in a similar boat, missing three straight and six of his last eight. However, he has a top-five at a major mixed in.

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Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Recent Form

  1. Robert MacIntyre ($9,000)
  2. Hank Lebioda ($7,900)
  3. Mito Pereira ($7,600)
  4. Jhonattan Vegas ($7,500)

Course History: TPC Twin Cities

There are only two years of data to observe here, with the event starting in 2019. That year it was won by Matthew Wolff, who is one of only three golfers to come in the top 25 each year. The other two are Charles Howell III and Tony Finau. Finau was able to make the cut yet again in a major but was never really a factor at any point in the tournament.

Eleven other golfers have made the cut in each of the last two years: Lebioda, Frittelli, Cameron Triangle, Richy Werenski, Pat Perez, Tom Hoge, Brice Garnett, Denny McCarthy, Patton Kizzire, Jason Dufner and Bronson Burgoon.


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Negative

Only two golfers have teed it up two times here and missed the cut each time: Chesson Hadley and Wes Roach. Roach has made his last five cuts, so something will have to give this week.

Click here for the google sheet link.

Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Course History

  1. Tony Finau ($10,700)
  2. Matthew Wolff ($9,700)
  3. Charles Howell III ($7,700)

Awesemo's Top Golfer Tool is an Ace

Since golf performances are largely uncorrelated between one golfer and the next, aside from weather impacts, a good way to view a PGA DFS lineup is as a parlay, where you have to hit all 6 picks to hit. The Awesemo Top Golfer Tool gives you the probabilities that each golfer will finish top 6, as well as their 25%, 50%,and 75% results as a benchmark for how you can expect each golfer to perform at the tournament.

Strokes Gained

Finau’s and Wolff’s strengths typically come from a long ball with solid to above-average iron games. Those will be two of the main focal points this week.

Strokes Gained Tee to Green

  1. Keegan Bradley
  2. Tony Finau
  3. Dustin Johnson
  4. Sergio Garcia
  5. Patrick Reed
  6. Bubba Watson
  7. Doug Ghim
  8. Louis Oosthuizen
  9. Chris Kirk
  10. Emiliano Grillo
  11. Jhonattan Vegas

Strokes Gained Off Tee

  1. Sergio Garcia
  2. Jhonattan Vegas
  3. Bubba Watson
  4. Cameron Champ
  5. Luke List
  6. Dustin Johnson
  7. Charles Howell III
  8. Keith Mitchell
  9. Tom Lewis
  10. Cameron Davis

Strokes Gained on Approach

  1. Keegan Bradley
  2. Matthew NeSmith
  3. Emiliano Grillo
  4. Stewart Cink
  5. Doug Ghim
  6. Chez Reavie
  7. Cameron Percy
  8. Russell Knox
  9. Tony Finau
  10. Kyle Stanley

Strokes Gained Around Green

  1. Fabian Gomez
  2. Tony Finau
  3. Louis Oosthuizen
  4. Rickie Fowler
  5. Patrick Reed
  6. Byeong Hun An
  7. Chris Kirk
  8. Dylan Frittelli
  9. Wyndham Clark
  10. Robby Shelton
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Strokes Gained Putting

  1. Louis Oosthuizen
  2. Brendon Todd
  3. J.T. Poston
  4. Chesson Hadley
  5. Patrick Reed
  6. Kristoffer Ventura
  7. Rhein Gibson
  8. Brian Harman
  9. Patton Kizzire
  10. Hunter Mahan
  11. Brice Garnett

For the yearly strokes gained ranks, Click here.

Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Strokes Gained

  1. Dustin Johnson ($11,300)
  2. Emiliano Grillo (9,300)
  3. Keegan Bradley ($8,800)

Old School Statistics

There will be a heavier emphasis on ball striking this week, as the course will yield plenty of birdie looks with quality shots on the first two.

Proximity

  1. Emiliano Grillo
  2. Kyle Stanley
  3. Vaughn Taylor
  4. Doug Ghim
  5. Chez Reavie
  6. Russell Knox
  7. Cameron Percy
  8. Hank Lebioda
  9. Chris Kirk
  10. Brian Stuard

Driving Distance

  1. Ryan Brehm
  2. Cameron Champ
  3. Dustin Johnson
  4. Matthew Wolff
  5. Sergio Garcia
  6. Wyndham Clark
  7. Brandon Hagy
  8. Keith Mitchell
  9. Luke List
  10. Jhonattan Vegas

Scrambling

  1. Hank Lebioda
  2. Charles Howell III
  3. Brian Harman
  4. Doug Ghim
  5. Cameron Tringale
  6. Aaron Baddeley
  7. Louis Oosthuizen
  8. Scott Stallings
  9. Andrew Putnam
  10. Pat Perez
  11. Chris Kirk

Awesemo's Top Golfer Tool is an Ace

Since golf performances are largely uncorrelated between one golfer and the next, aside from weather impacts, a good way to view a PGA DFS lineup is as a parlay, where you have to hit all 6 picks to hit. The Awesemo Top Golfer Tool gives you the probabilities that each golfer will finish top 6, as well as their 25%, 50%,and 75% results as a benchmark for how you can expect each golfer to perform at the tournament.

Putting 15-20 Yards

  1. Aaron Baddeley
  2. Rafael Campos
  3. Brendon Todd
  4. Ryan Moore
  5. Matthew Wolff
  6. Brandt Snedeker
  7. Pat Perez
  8. Cameron Tringale
  9. Mark Hubbard
  10. Patrick Reed
  11. Patton Kizzire

Birdie or Better

  1. Patton Kizzire
  2. Cameron Davis
  3. Patrick Reed
  4. Dustin Johnson
  5. Cameron Tringale
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Emiliano Grillo
  8. Stewart Cink
  9. Matthew Wolff
  10. Maverick McNealy
  11. Sergio Garcia

Click here to view in Google Sheets.

Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Statistical Analysis

  1. Cameron Tringale ($9,500)
  2. Maverick McNealy ($8,400)
  3. Doug Ghim ($7,900)

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Looking for more PGA DFS picks for Yahoo! and DFS PGA DraftKings picks? DraftKings PGA DFS rankings for this week will be posted at least a day in advance of any tournament. The DFS PGA projections for this week, the FanDuel DFS PGA showdown projections for today and the DraftKings DFS PGA ownership projections are made and used by Alex Baker, the No. 1 DFS player in the world.

Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now two years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of James as well as two Labradors (Choco and Bella) and he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, or somewhere hopefully lost in nature with his dogs guiding him along the way. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].

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