PGA DFS is filled with tons of useful information, but at times it can be overwhelming. The Awesemo golf team created a format to provide one condensed article that will analyze the four most important statistics for daily fantasy golf. This statistical overview will focus on recent form, course history, strokes gained and old-school statistics. I will provide notes and a data sheet to help with your PGA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel contests in each category. This week we’re focusing on the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Arnold Palmer Invitational PGA DFS Data and Picks
Recent Form
We’ll use the last 11 tournaments to complete our dataset this week, which takes us back to the OHL Mayakoba Classic. The winner of that event was Viktor Hovland, who since then has gone to accumulate four more top-fives and five other top-10s, an incredible stretch of golf. We saw this type of consistency from him in college, but to have it translate to the big stage is another thing, and he’s doing it superbly right now.
No one else in the field has eclipsed three top-10s in this dataset, let alone five, as Billy Horschel, Patrick Reed, Paul Casey, Tyrrell Hatton and Francesco Molinari all have two. Jordan Spieth and Hovland are the only two golfers coming into this week with three straight top-15s.
However, Hovland is matched on the top 25 metrics by Max Homa, who added his sixth in the last 13 weeks with a 22nd-place finish last week. Horschel, Reed, Casey, Rory McIlroy and Matthew Fitzpatrick all have four.
On the other side of the former-winner coin, Matt Every will look to tap into some good feels here this week as a two-time winner of the event, as he’s missed five cuts in this dataset. The only other one to do so is Denny McCarthy, whose game seems ice cold right now.
Click here to view in Google Sheets.
Latest PGA DFS Content
- RBC Heritage Preview: Course Breakdown, PGA DFS Model Plays & Much More
- 2024 RBC Heritage DFS Core Plays: Finding Course Fits for Harbour Town, Including Xander Schauffele
- RBC Heritage First Round Leader Picks, Bets & More (2024)
- PGA DFS Picks: Top Values for the RBC Heritage (2024)
- DraftKings Golf Cheat Sheet: Best PGA DFS Sims Picks for the RBC Heritage | Scottie Scheffler
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Course History
Bay Hill Golf Club & Lodge has been providing some thrilling moments for quite some time now. A regular stop on tour since the late 1970s, there is plenty of history to dig into. For this dataset, we will go back to 2014. Sixteen golfers will be making their first appearance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, including Spieth, Will Zalatoris, Cameron Davis, Robert MacIntyre and Will Gordon.
It’s good to see the Henrik Stenson back in action, although his trend wouldn’t provide us much to be excited about. His form here is also quite a roller coaster, filled with two missed cuts and four top-fives, all since 2014. He is one of three golfers that have four top-10s here since then; the other two are McIlroy and Molinari. Marc Leishman and Jason Kokrak are the only other two golfers with more than two top-10s, coming in with three apiece. Sungjae Im and Keith Mitchell are both 2-for-2 in finishing in the top 10 in their two starts.
Jason Day has had possibly the craziest and funniest course history of anyone in the field. He has withdrawn from the event each of the last two years, including a trip to Disney World mere hours after his withdrawal from the event. To this day, it is still talked about in this circle. Thirteen golfers in the field this week will be putting their made cut streak on the line (12 if you consider one of Day’s last two withdraws a missed cut), including: McIlroy, Molinari, Hatton, Horschel, Bryson DeChambeau, Ian Poulter, Keegan Bradley, Zach Johnson and Byeong Hun An.
Robert Gamez will give it another go here this week, as he missed the cut in each of the last seven years. Maybe this is the year.
Strokes Gained
Our Strokes Gained tool here at Awesemo is a great resource for this area. We will be pushing a new update to this on March 2, which I’ll come with a brief tutorial for those of you that aren’t familiar with this great set of statistics. For those of you that aren’t an Awesemo+ member but would like baseline strokes gained information, here is this week’s field and their yearly PGA Tour Ranks.
Strokes Gained off Tee
DeChambeau (1), Cameron Champ (2), McIlroy (6), Kokrak (10), Conners (15)
Strokes Gained on Approach
Matt Wallace (5), Zalatoris (10), Hatton (11), Chez Reavie (12), Henrik Norlander (18), Hovland (22)
Strokes Gained Around Green
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (1), Poulter (10), Kevin Na (11), Spieth (12), Adam Hadwin (13), An (16)
Strokes Gained Putting
Reed (2), Oosthuizen (3), Brendon Todd (5), Kokrak (8), J.T. Poston (11), Sam Burns, Hatton (16)
For the yearly strokes gained ranks, Click here.
Old School Statistics for PGA DFS Analysis
Before strokes gained statistics were invented, the focus was on data like greens in regulation and driving distance/accuracy. The old standards can still help develop a player’s profile further, helping us identify potential strengths and weaknesses. I’ve chosen my five favorite old-school statistics for this week’s Genesis Invitational. Four of these will come from a corollary statistic to the strokes gained category. I’ve listed each golfer along with their ranking in the statistical category.
Total Driving
Jazz Janewattananond (2), Hatton (3), Hovland (7), Doc Redman (9), Tommy Fleetwood (10), Casey (11), DeChambeau (12)
Greens In Regulation
Corey Conners (4), Hadwin (7), McIlroy (8), Casey (11), Harris English (14), Hideki Matsuyama (18), Champ (19)
Scrambling
Poulter (5), Molinari (6), Talor Gooch (8), English (10), Si Woo Kim (11)
Total Putting
Poston (7), Poulter (8), Hadwin (9), Hovland (10), Wyndham Clark (11), Burns (14)
Bogey Avoidance
Hatton (2), McIlroy (2), English (6), DeChambeau (9), Todd (13)
Click here to view in Google Sheets.
Data-Driven PGA DFS Picks for Arnold Palmer Invitational
I know that was a lot of information to digest. At the end of each weekly article, I will provide a trio of names that appear with positive data in at least two of the four (three this week) sections. These should make for good PGA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel.
- Reed, McIlroy, Hatton and Molinari show up in all four categories this week.
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Looking for more fantasy golf and PGA DFS picks content for the Arnold Palmer Invitational? We have loads of PGA DFS picks and fantasy golf articles, data, cheat sheets, and more for DraftKings and FanDuel on the Awesemo PGA home page. Just click HERE.
