PGA DFS is filled with tons of useful information, but at times it can be overwhelming. The Awesemo golf team created a format to provide one condensed article that will analyze the four most important statistics for daily fantasy golf. This statistical overview will focus on recent form, course history, strokes gained and old-school statistics. I will provide notes and a data sheet to help with your PGA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel contests in each category. This week we’re focusing on the Genesis Invitational.
The Genesis Invitational PGA DFS Data & Picks
Recent Form
We’ll use the last 11 tournaments to complete our dataset this week. Finally we have a week where the number of top-10s accumulated by the field is more than double that of last week, showcasing the strength of the field.
Tony Finau and Viktor Hovland have done a bit of traveling here in the past couple of months. In that traveling, they have accumulated four top-10s and three top-fives. Hovland has the only win at the Mayakoba Golf Classic, while Finau is working off of back-to-back runner-ups. Stop me if you’ve seen me write that before.
Four others check in with three top-10s, including Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele and Daniel Berger. Jordan Spieth and Cameron Tringale have made their presence felt more recently with back-to-back top-17s in the last two weeks.
With the exception of Morikawa, all of the other names above have four top-25s in this dataset. Others accomplishing that include Tringale, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Marc Leishman, Abraham Ancer and Max Homa.
Twenty golfers will be putting their made-cut streak on the line this week. Each of those with at least three starts has made the weekend in all of their starts, including: Matt Jones, Corey Conners, Carlos Ortiz, Hideki Matsuyama, Joaquin Niemann, Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott, Will Zalatoris, Wyndham Clark, Bryson DeChambeau, Jim Furyk and many of the names we’ve already listed.
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Negative side:
On the flip side of that, Scott Harrington, Tyler Duncan, Patrick Rodgers and Denny McCarthy will be looking to change their fortunes this week, with five missed cuts and no top-15s in this dataset.
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Course History at The Genesis Invitational
The king has come back to his thrown, so to speak. Dustin Johnson has competed here each of the last seven years, coming in the top 16 in each and the top 10 in six of seven, including a win and two runner-ups. No one even comes close to the type of history Johnson has here, although Bubba Watson’s three wins aren’t too shabby either, and some might take that over Johnson. Matsuyama and Scott are the other two golfers with at least three top-10s since 2014.
Nine other golfers have multiple top-10s here since 2014, and McIlroy, Spieth and Chez Reavie also join the other four golfers with at least four top-25s and top-10s.
Twelve golfers in the field will be attempting to earn at least their fourth consecutive paycheck here in Los Angeles. J.B. Holmes, Adam Hadwin, Sung Kang, Ortiz, Cantlay, Schauffele, DeChambeau, J.T. Poston and Ancer are nine of the names I’ve yet to mention in this section.
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Strokes Gained
Strokes gained is the best metric by which to measure and predict the tour for PGA DFS purposes. This is where we make our money on DraftKings and FanDuel. Strokes gained can primarily be broken down into four categories: Off the tee, on the approach, around the green, and putting. For this review, we are foregoing other categories such as strokes gained ball striking (which combines strokes gained off the tee and on approach) or short game (which combines around-the-green and putting data).
For more strokes gained information, check out Awesemo’s Strokes Gained Tool, which has all of this information and more for both DraftKings and FanDuel PGA DFS contests! Click Here.
I am going back 27 weeks, which should include roughly 20-25 tournaments.
Strokes Gained off the Tee
If you believe strokes gained off the tee will be massively important this week, then look no further than Rahm and Zalatoris. They’ve gained strokes off the tee in every start, Rahm with 16 and Zalatoris with six. Scottie Scheffler, Conners and Niemann are all at 95%, while Cameron Champ, Watson, McIlroy and DeChambeau are all a bit below that but still above 90%. Twenty-two golfers in all have gained strokes off the tee in at least 80% of their starts. A few names that I have yet to mention in this article include Sam Burns, Henrik Norlander, Jason Kokrak, Luke List and Cameron Davis.
Strokes Gained on the Approach
Camilo Villegas and Zalatoris are still trying to accumulate starts, as they have significantly less than most of the others in this dataset. For golfers that have at least 10 starts, Doc Redman and Russell Henley lead the way, with 44% of their starts ending in at least 1 stroke gained. Morikawa is also over 40%.
Strokes Gained Around the Green
Ten golfers have been able to gain strokes around the green in at least 70% of their starts, including Thomas, Cantlay, Spieth, Mackenzie Hughes, Dylan Frittelli, Brian Harman, Doug Ghim and Si Woo Kim.
Strokes Gained Putting
As good as he’s been with the driver in recent months, DeChambeau gets equally hot with his putter. In 54% of his starts, he was able to gain at least 1 stroke putting. Hughes is the only other one at or above 50%, and only two others have done it in 40%: Berger and Brendon Todd. Some may think this is Spieth’s category, but he’s only done it three times in this dataset, and one of them was two weeks ago.
For the yearly strokes gained ranks, Click here.
Old School Statistics for PGA DFS Analysis
Before strokes gained statistics were invented, the focus was on data like greens in regulation and driving distance/accuracy. The old standards can still help develop a player’s profile further, helping us identify potential strengths and weaknesses. I’ve chosen my five favorite old-school statistics for this week’s Genesis Invitational. Four of these will come from a corollary statistic to the strokes gained category, and we will add one additional scoring statistic. I’ve listed each golfer along with their ranking in the statistical category.
*This week, with such an emphasis being placed on off the tee, I’ve picked two stats for that category and omitted the correlating approach stat.
Total Driving
Gary Woodland (1), Rahm (4), Berger (5), Hovland (7), Garcia (8), Redman (9)
Driving Distance
Garcia (1), Watson (2), Champ (3) McIlroy (4), DeChambeau (5), Thomas (6), Rahm (8)
Scrambling 20-30 Yards
McIlroy (1), Garcia (2), Sepp Straka (8), Champ, Thomas, James Hahn (10), Spieth, Brendan Steele (14)
Putting Inside 10 Feet
Vaughn Taylor (2), Niemann (3) Brandt Snedeker, Joel Dahmen (4), Poston (6), Nick Taylor (7), Spieth (8), Clark (9)
Bogey Avoidance
McIlroy, Rahm (2), Woodland (7), DeChambeau (9), Schauffele (10), Thomas (11) Russell Knox (12)
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Data-Driven PGA DFS picks for the Genesis Invitational
I know that was a lot of information to digest. At the end of each weekly article, I will provide a trio of names that appear with positive data in at least two of the four sections we reviewed and make for good PGA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel.
- Many golfers show up in all four this week: Johnson, Cantlay, Schauffele, DeChambeau, Spieth and Scott.
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