PGA DFS is filled with tons of useful information, but at times it can be overwhelming. The Awesemo golf team created a format to provide one condensed article that will analyze the four most important statistics for daily fantasy golf. This statistical overview will focus on Recent Form, Course History, Strokes Gained and Old-School statistics. In each category, I will provide notes and a data sheet to help with your PGA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel contests. This week we’re focusing on the Sony Open.
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Recent Form
We are only one tournament into the PGA DFS year, so there’s not quite enough data to stay super recent. So, to stay semi-recent, we will cover 11 tournament weeks (14 weeks total) in this recent form sheet, bringing us back to the Shriners Open. This week there are 144 players in the field, and I’ll be providing info on 140 of them. The average number of starts per player is 4.17 over these 14 weeks.
In our sample, only two golfers in the field of 144 have four top-10s: Harris English and Takumi Kanaya. Twelve others have multiple top-10s, including Collin Morikawa, Sungjae Im, Joaquin Niemann, Cameron Smith, Ryan Palmer and Talor Gooch.Â
Similarly, there are only two golfers in the field with five or more top-25s in our sample: Niemann and Smith. Eight others have four, including Webb Simpson, Abraham Ancer and Sebastian Munoz.Â
A new calendar year will hopefully bring more success to golfers like Bo Van Pelt, Ryan Armour, Luke List, Nick Watney and previous Sony Open Champion Fabian Gomez, who have all missed at least four cuts over these past 14 weeks.
Click here to view in Google Sheets.
Course History at Waialae Country Club
While the beauty of Oahu and Waialae Country Club may be vastly different than the majestic sites and sounds of Maui and the Kapalua Plantation, it still is quite special in its own right. It is so special, in fact, that the tour has been coming here every year since the 1960s. That gives us over 50 years’ worth of data. However, since Gary Player and Jack Nicklaus decided to skip the event this year, we’ll just focus on results since 2014. Seventeen golfers of the 140 have played each of the last seven years.
There are seven golfers in our sample that have accumulated three top-10s since 2014: Kevin Kisner, Zach Johnson, Matt Kuchar, Charles Howell III, Brian Stuard, Hudson Swafford, and Jerry Kelly. When we stretch out the results to top-25 finishes, only two golfers have been able to do that five times in the last seven years: Howell and Simpson. Another seven have done it four times, but none of them have done it 100% of the time. The only golfer other than Simpson to have finished in the top 25 in all of his starts, with at least two starts at the Sony Open, is Im, who is 2-for-2.
There are plenty of golfers that will be looking to change their fortunes around Waialae Country Club this week, and no one more so than Troy Merritt, who has six missed cuts in seven tries. Chris Kirk has had varying levels of success, with two top-10s but also four missed cuts. Jamie Lovemark is in the exact same scenario as Kirk, while Jim Herman and Vijay Singh have each missed the cut five times in seven tries.
Click here to view in Google Sheets.
Strokes GainedÂ
Strokes gained is the best metric by which to measure and predict the tour for PGA DFS purposes. This is where we make our money on DraftKings and FanDuel. Strokes gained can primarily be broken down into four categories: Off the tee, on the approach, around the green and putting. For this review, we are foregoing other categories such as strokes gained ball striking (which combines strokes gained off the tee and on approach) or short game (which combines around-the-green and putting data).
For more strokes gained information, check out Awesemo’s Strokes Gained Tool, which has all of this information and more for both DraftKings and FanDuel PGA DFS contests! Click Here.
I am going back to when the PGA Tour came back from their COVID break for this sample.
Strokes Gained off the Tee
It’s no surprise to see Sergio Garcia (0.93) and Jason Kokrak (0.64) lead this category (as two of the top five players in said category last week) among some of the best drivers of the ball in the game. List (.53) and Jhonattan Vegas (.52) are the only other two golfers in the field that average at least half a stroke off the tee per round.
Strokes Gained on the Approach
Russell Henley’s resurgence late in the season, or post COVID, was fueled by his stellar iron play. In fact, he averaged a shot gained per start, easily the best in the field. Wesley Bryan, in about half as many starts, also gained over a store per round. They beat the next best guys by about a third of a stroke, as Matthew NeSmith, Chris Baker and Emiliano Grillo have all averaged just about 0.65 strokes gained per start.
Strokes Gained Around the Green
Anirban Lahiri had a couple of promising starts after his lengthy layoff, and a lot of it was driven by his success on and around the green. In his four starts, he gained strokes in all of them and averaged 0.71 per round. That’s 0.10 better than Rhein Gibson, and they are the only two golfers that gained over half a stroke per start post COVID. Brian Harman and English have both sustained great success on and around the greens as well.
Strokes Gained Putting
With Mackenzie Hughes and Brendon Todd in the field this week, it’ll be no surprise to see them Nos. 1 and 2 in average strokes gained putting per start post COVID. Johnson, Hunter Mahan, Andrew Putnam and Patton Kizzire join Daniel Berger, English, Todd and Hughes as the only golfers to average over a half a stroke gained putting in this sample.
For the yearly strokes gained ranks Click here.
Old School Statistics for Fantasy Golf AnalysisÂ
Before strokes gained statistics were invented, the focus was on data like greens in regulation (GIR) and driving distance/accuracy. The old standards can still help develop a player’s profile further, helping us identify potential strengths and weaknesses. I’ve chosen my five favorite old-school statistics for this week’s Sony Open. Four of these will come from a corollary statistic from the strokes gained category, and we will add one additional scoring statistic. I’ve listed each golfer along with their ranking in the statistical category.
Total Driving
Berger (5), Simpson (6), Garcia (8), Vegas (16), English, Im (18), Brendan Steele (24), Billy Horschel (25),
Proximity
Simpson (7), Steele (8), Ben Taylor (11), D.J. Trahan (12), Henley (14), Ted Potter Jr. (14), Jim Furyk (16), Doug Ghim (18), Tim Wilkinson (20)
Scrambling from 10-20 Yards
Lahiri (6), Tyler McCumber (8), Simpson, Kirk (12), Wilkinson (15), Roger Sloan (18), J.J. Spaun (19), Bryan (23) Russell Knox, Carlos Ortiz, Kuchar, Peter Malnati, Kevin Tway, Hank Lebioda (25)
Putting from 15-20 Feet
Malnati (1), Lahiri (2), Simpson (14), Ortiz (15), Spaun (16), David Hearn (16), Todd (21)
Par 4 scoring 400-450 Yards
Simpson (1), Kuchar (3), Hideki Matsuyama (6), Furyk, Pat Perez (12), Tom Hoge (14), Adam Scott (15), Munoz (19)
Click here to view in Google Sheets.
Data-Driven PGA DFS picks
I know that was a lot of information to digest. At the end of each weekly article, I will provide a trio of names that appear with positive data in at least two of the four sections we reviewed and make for good PGA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel.
- Sungjae Im
- Zach Johnson
- Brendon Todd
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