⛳ PGA DFS Picks: Data Driven Analysis for The Honda Classic | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

PGA DFS is filled with tons of useful information, but at times it can be overwhelming. The Awesemo golf team created a format to provide one condensed article that will analyze the four most important statistics for daily fantasy golf. This statistical overview will focus on recent form, course history, strokes gained, and old-school statistics. I will provide notes and a data sheet to help with your PGA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel contests in each category. This week we’re focusing on The Honda Classic.

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The Honda Classic PGA DFS Data and Picks

Recent Form

We will use the last 10 tournaments to complete our dataset this week, which takes us back to the Tournament of Champions. Fourteen golfers have competed eight times over the past 10 weeks, and the average is about five tournaments played. That gives us plenty of data on almost every player competing this week.

As of right now, Daniel Berger is still scheduled to tee it up, but that may change by Thursday. He is the only golfer with more than two top-10s in this dataset. There are only three other PGA Tour pros with at least two: Chris Kirk, Joaquin Niemann and Lee Westwood. Rafael Campos and Steve Stricker also have two, but only Campos has one on the PGA Tour. Stricker’s both came on the Champions Tour.

Sungjae Im, the model of consistency on the PGA Tour, is doing it again, but with more limited upside than expected. He has five top-25s in the eight starts in this dataset but only one top-10. Richy Werenski joins Kirk, Berger and Im as the only golfers that have accumulated at least four top-25s in these 10 weeks.

Ten golfers in this week’s field have made the weekend in all of their starts over the last 10 weeks: Im, Westwood, Niemann, Brendan Steele, Jim Furyk, Adam Scott, Brandon Wu, Patton Kizzire, Wesley Bryan and Zach Johnson. 

On the other side of that, there are plenty of golfers looking to change their fortunes around at PGA National. Jimmy Walker has six missed cuts and only one weekend made in his seven starts. Others like Peter Malnati, Austin Cook, Robby Shelton and Robert Streb will all be looking for their first paycheck in at least three weeks.

Click here to view in Google Sheets.

Course History at PGA National 

It is normal for the earliest times in March to lead to some tilting times at PGA National, but now that it’s at the back half off the Florida swing, we as gamers are quite used to that. Now, with a less-than-stellar field, there will be added variability for this tournament, especially with Im being the highest-priced golfer on the slate as the defending champion.

Nothing demonstrates the field’s lack of strength better than the fact that only seven of the 144 golfers competing have found their way into the top 10 more than once. Those seven are Berger, Bryan, Byeong Hun An, Luke List, Vijay Singh and Rickie Fowler. Fowler needs something miraculous to happen in the next three weeks to take part in The Masters this year. It would be his first time not making the event in 10 years.

Steele has had some of the most consistent records in his five starter here, earning four top-25s and a fourth-place finish last year. A couple of other bigger names that have at least three top-25s in the last six years include Scott and Russell Henley. On the other hand, Tom Hoge and Denny McCarthy have both missed the cut each of the last three years.

Click here to view in google sheets.

Strokes Gained

Our Strokes Gained tool here at Awesemo is a great resource for this area. We will be pushing a new update to this every Tuesday evening after a week in which strokes gained was measured. It’ll come with a brief tutorial for those of you that aren’t familiar with this great set of statistics. For those of you that aren’t an Awesemo+ member but would like baseline strokes gained information, here is this week’s field and their yearly PGA Tour Ranks.

This week, PGA National doesn’t favor anyone golfer over another, so taking the totality of these stats will be my aim this week.


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Strokes Gained Off Tee

Jhonattan Vegas (6), Im (7), List (10), Niemann (11), Campos (12), Cameron Davis (17)

Strokes Gained On Approach

Henley (5),  Matthew NeSmith (7), Keegan Bradley (9), Chez Reavie (12), Matt Wallace (13), Furyk (15), Kelly Kraft (16)

Strokes Gained Around Green

An (6), Stricker (8), Adam Hadwin (15), Ian Poulter (16), Vaughn Taylor (20), K.H. Lee (21)

Strokes Gained Putting

Malnati (6), J.T. Poston (9), Campos (11), Kristoffer Ventura (12), Chesson Hadley (15)

For the yearly strokes gained ranks, Click here.

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Old School Statistics for PGA DFS Analysis

Before strokes gained statistics were invented, the focus was on data like greens in regulation and driving distance/accuracy. The old standards can still help develop a player’s profile further, helping us identify potential strengths and weaknesses. I’ve chosen my five favorite old-school statistics for this week’s Genesis Invitational. Four of these will come from a corollary statistic to the strokes gained category. I’ve listed each golfer along with their ranking in the statistical category.

Total Driving

Berger (5), Vegas (16), Shane Lowry (17), Im (18), Lucas Glover (21), Steele (24)

Greens In Regulation

Furyk (3), Hadwin (7), James Hahn (12), Niemann (23), Hadley (24)

Around the Green Proximity 

Rob Oppenheim (3), Steele (9), Jason Dufner (9), Malnati (12), Kramer Hickok (13)

Putting from 15 to 20 feet

Malnati (1), Anirban Lahiri (2), Ventura (3), Maverick McNealy (9), David Hearn (19)

Bogey Avoidance

Russel Knox (12), Henley (15), Brice Garnett (16), Hadwin (20), Cameron Tringale, Adam Scheck, NeSmith (23)

Click here to view in Google Sheets.

Data-Driven PGA DFS Picks for The Honda Classic

I know that was a lot of information to digest. At the end of each weekly article, I will provide some of names that appear with positive data in at least two of the four. These should make for good PGA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel.

  • Berger, though trending towards not playing this week, is one of only two golfers to show up in all four categories, Im being the other. Niemann is in three, as are Steele and Henley.

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Looking for more fantasy golf and PGA DFS picks content for the The Honda Classic? We have loads of PGA DFS picks and fantasy golf articles, data, cheat sheets, and more for DraftKings and FanDuel on the Awesemo PGA home page. Just click HERE.

Author
Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].

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