PGA DFS Picks: Data Driven Analysis for The Masters | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

PGA DFS is filled with tons of useful information, but at times it can be overwhelming. The Awesemo golf team created a format to provide one condensed article that will analyze the four most important statistics for daily fantasy golf. This statistical overview will focus on recent form, course history, strokes gained and old-school statistics. I will provide notes and a data sheet to help with your PGA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel contests in each category. This week the focus is on The Masters.

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PGA DFS Picks: The Masters

Recent Form

Right now the title for best consistency and upside on the PGA Tour goes to Jordan Spieth and Paul Casey. Both are playing phenomenally, with five top-10s, a win apiece and multiple other top-fives. Between the two, Spieth has the lone missed cut — at the Farmers Insurance in January. There are a couple of golfers with four top-10s, but only one of them has a top-10 in the last five weeks: Jon Rahm. The other two, Tony Finau and Viktor Hovland, earned all of their top-10s at least six weeks ago and have struggled over the last month. Ten others have compiled three top-10s.

Of those that have at least three top-10s, Max Homa leads the field with seven top-25s in nine starts, while Matthew Fitzpatrick is 6-for-7 in coming in the top 25. Others with five include Rory McIlroy, Tyrrell Hatton, Abraham Ancer and Sungjae Im. 

Augusta National Golf Course is not typically the course for finding form, but Henrik Stenson will attempt to do so. He has missed every cut in the last 11 weeks. But he looked closer last week, doubling the 18th hole to miss the cut, but it was an improvement from what he had been doing. There are 10 others looking for their first top 25 in the last couple of months this week; a few of the bigger names include Cameron Champ and Matthew Wolff. 

Click here to view in Google Sheets.

Course History at Augusta National Golf Club 

It has been said many times and will be said many more: Whether it be the approach shots, getting used to uneven lies, or the greens that are the hardest in the world, there are many elements that make this tournament the best spectacle in professional golf. Only eight of 88 golfers don’t have a start here in the last six years.

McIlroy and Dustin Johnson both push Spieth for the best history at Augusta since 2015. Each of them has five top-10s and three top-fives. Spieth also has three top-fives. Casey went through a great stretch from  2015 to 2017 where he finished inside the top six each of those years, but the last three haven’t gone as well, including a missed cut. It’s a similar story for Justin Rose, who had two runner-ups and three top-10s through that stretch, but the last three years included a missed cut as well. Rahm is the only golfer outside of these five that has three top-10s here in the last six years. Cameron Smith and Finau are the other ones to mention here, as they have two top-10s in only three tires, whereas all the other ones mentioned have at least four.

Hideki Matsuyama is also incredibly consistent at Augusta, using his elite ball-striking to get around here with some of the best. He has made the cut all five years, his worst finish was 32nd, and the other finishes ended up inside the top 25. Only McIlroy has more, with six. Jason Day, Louis Oosthuizen, Brooks Koepka and Justin Thomas all have four top 25s.

Outside of the older previous champions competing this week like Sandy Lyle, Jose Maria Olazabal and Ian Woosnam, only Gary Woodland has more than three missed cuts. Charl Schwartzel, Danny Willett and Shane Lowry all have three.

Click here to view in google sheets.

Strokes Gained

Augusta National will test all parts of the game here this week. We’ll check in with a couple more corollary stats this week.


Latest PGA DFS Content


Strokes Gained Tee to Green

Bryson DeChambeau (1), Rahm (2), Collin Morikawa (3), Will Zalatoris (4), Thomas (5), Dustin Johnson (6)

Strokes Gained Off Tee

DeChambeau (1), Sergio Garcia (2), Rahm (3), McIlroy (3), Hovland (5), Im (6), Joaquin Niemann (8), Champ (9),

Strokes Gained On Approach

Morikawa (1), Thomas (3), Matt Wallace (4), Zalatoris (5), Hatton (10), Dustin Johnson (11)

Strokes Gained Around Green

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (1), Kevin Na (3), Dylan Frittelli (6), Cantlay (6), Webb Simpson (8), Oosthuizen (9), Dustin Johnson (10), Thomas (14), Spieth (17)

Strokes Gained Putting

Patrick Reed (1), Oosthuizen (3), Brendon Todd (4), Koepka (7) Jason Kokrak (8), Xander Schauffele (9), Zach Johnson (10)

For the yearly strokes gained ranks, Click here.

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Old School Statistics for PGA DFS Analysis

I have added a couple of other statistics that are important here this week.

Driving Distance

Garcia (1), Bubba Watson (2), Champ (3), McIlroy (4), DeChambeau (5), Thomas (6)

Scrambling 20-30 Yards

McIlroy (1), Garcia (2), Tommy Fleetwood (4), Day (5), Hudson Swafford (6), Champ (10), Thomas (10), Ryan Palmer (10), Spieth (14)

Putting Outside 20 Feet

Spieth (1), Billy Horschel (2), Rose (40), Simpson (4), Rahm (4), Kokrak (4)

Three-Putt Avoidance

Mackenzie Hughes (2), Smith (3), Hatton (5), Brian Harman (10), Kevin Kisner (12)

Click here to view in Google Sheets.

Data-Driven PGA DFS Picks for The Masters

That was a lot of information to digest. At the end of each weekly article, I will provide some of the names that appear with positive data in at least two of the four. These should make for good PGA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel.

  • Jordan Spieth
  • Paul Casey
  • Jon Rahm
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick

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Author
Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].

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