Having a variety of viewpoints and data points can be both a curse and a blessing. In this article, I sift through all the data and give you top picks from all four statistical angles that make up PGA DFS. With only 30 golfers left in the season-long FedEx Cup Race, 18 of them will be returning from last year. The course at East Lake has been used as the Tour Championship site for quite a few years now, so there is plenty of data to analyze before we get into making our PGA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy golf lineups this week.
PGA DFS Picks This Week: The Tour Championship
Recent Form
Everyone is still awaiting word from the Patrick Reed camp if he will be able to tee it up or not. Outside of him, the lowest number of starts over the last 13 weeks has been six. Three golfers hold the lead for most starts, with nine.
Jon Rahm continued his hot play earning his sixth top-10 in his last six starts, but he is probably not happy with the ninth-place finish last week. Collin Morikawa’s back injury seems to be affecting him right now, as he missed the cut at the Northern Trust and came in 63rd last week. Prior to that he had four top-10s in six starts. Dustin Johnson and Erik van Rooyen are going the other way, as they each added their fourth top-10 in the last 13 weeks. Van Rooyen is the biggest Cinderella story of the season. He was at risk of losing his card entering the Barracuda Championship, but he won that and added back-to-back top-10s in the playoff events to get him into East Lake. Scottie Scheffler and last week’s winner Patrick Cantlay each picked up their sixth top-25 in the last 13 weeks, as did Sergio Garcia.
Negative Recent Form
Only two of the 30 golfers playing this week have failed to record a top-25 in the last 13 weeks: Stewart Cink and Billy Horschel.
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PGA DFS Picks Based on Recent Form
- Jon Rahm ($13,000)
- Scottie Scheffler ($6,800)
- Erik van Rooyen ($5,000)
Course History
There is plenty of history here at East Lake, and it shows that it tests all parts of the game. Of the 30 competing here this week, only two of teed it up every year since 2015: Johnson and Hideki Matsuyama. Johnson has finished outside of the top 10 only one time, while Matsuyama has only finished in the top 10 twice. Justin Thomas is 5-for-5 finishing in the top 10 since 2016, and Rory McIlroy is the only golfer to have won here twice. He also has two other top-10s in five trips.
Negative
Daniel Berger and Kevin Na are the only two golfers in this field that have yet to come in the top 10 at the Tour Championship, with a minimum of four starts.
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Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Course History
- Dustin Johnson ($10,700)
- Justin Thomas ($11,000)
- Rory McIlroy ($9,300)
Strokes Gained
With only one week left on the schedule, here is how each golfer performed in each of the strokes gained statistics.
Strokes Gained Tee to Green
- Jon Rahm
- Collin Morikawa
- Justin Thomas
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Patrick Cantlay
- Rory McIlroy
- Brooks Koepka
- Corey Conners
- Viktor Hovland
- Sergio Garcia
- Hideki Matsuyama
Strokes Gained Off the Tee
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Jon Rahm
- Sergio Garcia
- Rory McIlroy
- Viktor Hovland
- Brooks Koepka
- Corey Conners
- Joaquin Niemann
- Patrick Cantlay
- Sungjae Im
Strokes Gained on Approach
- Collin Morikawa
- Justin Thomas
- Daniel Berger
- Jon Rahm
- Corey Conners
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Xander Schauffele
- Viktor Hovland
- Sam Burns
- Brooks Koepka
Strokes Gained Around the Green
- Kevin Na
- Jordan Spieth
- Patrick Cantlay
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Tony Finau
- Justin Thomas
- Cameron Smith
- Harris English
- Scottie Scheffler
- Hideki Matsuyama
Strokes Gained Putting
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Jason Kokrak
- Cameron Smith
- Harris English
- Sam Burns
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Xander Schauffele
- Patrick Cantlay
- Abraham Ancer
- Jordan Spieth
- Joaquin Niemann
For the yearly strokes gained ranks, Click here.
Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Strokes Gained
- Patrick Cantlay ($13,400)
- Louis Oosthuizen ($7,600)
- Harris English ($8,700)
Old School Statistics
With just about 55% of the greens hit in regulation, scrambling and around the green become much more important. Greens are not overly large either, so the misses should be rather small, in the 10- to 20-yard window.
Greens in Regulation
- Jon Rahm
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Sergio Garcia
- Daniel Berger
- Collin Morikawa
- Jason Kokrak
- Patrick Cantlay
- Sungjae Im
- Viktor Hovland
- Stewart Cink
Driving Distance
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Rory McIlroy
- Dustin Johnson
- Brooks Koepka
- Sergio Garcia
- Jon Rahm
- Xander Schauffele
- Joaquin Niemann
- Justin Thomas
- Viktor Hovland
Scrambling
- Patrick Cantlay
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Harris English
- Abraham Ancer
- Kevin Na
- Daniel Berger
- Cameron Smith
- Sungjae Im
- Sergio Garcia
- Jon Rahm
Scrambling 10-20 Yards
- Kevin Na
- Harris English
- Patrick Cantlay
- Sungjae Im
- Sergio Garcia
- Daniel Berger
- Cameron Smith
- Corey Conners
- Justin Thomas
- Jordan Spieth
Putting 15-20 Feet
- Harris English
- Patrick Cantlay
- Kevin Na
- Jordan Spieth
- Jason Kokrak
- Joaquin Niemann
- Cameron Smith
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Scottie Scheffler
- Erik van Rooyen
Par 4 Scoring 450-500 Yards
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Collin Morikawa
- Patrick Cantlay
- Justin Thomas
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Jon Rahm
- Dustin Johnson
- Rory McIlroy
- Sungjae Im
- Sam Burns
Click here to view in Google Sheets.
Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Statistical Analysis
- Jordan Spieth ($10,400)
- Cameron Smith ($10,100)
- Sungjae Im ($7,300)
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