PGA DFS is filled with tons of useful information, but at times it can be overwhelming. If this is your first time visiting the article, this statistical overview will focus on recent form, course history, strokes gained and old-school statistics. I will provide notes and a data sheet with DFS golf projections to help with your PGA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy golf contests in each category. This week the focus is on The US Open.
Since the US Open is being played at a course, we see each and every year. The in-depth research will focus on course history and tournament history this week. Look for in-depth stroke gained research found here on our Awesemo’s stroke gained tool!
PGA DFS Picks: The US Open Championship
***Get a SNEAK PEEK with our free premium data, tools, and content of the day, the Awesemo Premium PGA DFS Golfer Rankings.***
Recent Form
It is impossible to talk about recent form without mentioning Jon Rahm. He likely would have one the event two weeks ago if not for the COVID withdrawal. That would have been his fourth top-10 in the last 11 weeks, one of three golfers in the field to accomplish that. Garrick Higgo has five, and Jordan Spieth is the other with at least four. Collin Morikawa leads a list of nine names that have three top-10s over the last 11 weeks. The other eight are:
- Patrick Reed
- Scottie Scheffler
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Cameron Smith
- Shane Lowry
- Abraham Ancer
- Sam Burns
- Troy Merritt
- Richard Bland
- Marcus Armitage
While top-25s don’t help one win massive GPPs (unless there’s a hole in one), they can help win smaller-field GPPs. Charley Hoffman and Abraham Ancer lead the way with six, and Ancer was close to a seventh with his 26th-place finish 10 weeks ago. Corey Conners and Ryo Ishikawa also have with six top-10s in the last 11 weeks. For Ishikawa, those finishes were mostly on the Japan Golf Tour.
Majors are not typically where one wants to find form, but Tom Hoge, Kevin Kisner, Peter Malnati, Sungjae Im and Chez Reavie all have at least five missed cuts in the last 11 weeks. However, the latter two both found a bit of form last week, coming in 35th and 14th, respectively.
Click here to view in Google Sheets.
Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Recent Form
- Jon Rahm ($11,200)
- Collin Morikawa ($9,500)
- Shane Lowry ($7,600)
Course History at Torrey Pines
While only three of four rounds are competed on the South Course, it’s a good enough sample size to discuss. Rahm and Tony Finau lead the way with four top-10s, and Finau, has seven top-25s in the last seven years here at The Farmers.
Adam Scott leads a list of 11 names that have at two top-10s here since 2015. A few of those names include Rory McIlroy, Ryan Palmer, Justin Rose, Marc Leishman, Patrick Reed and Patrick Rodgers.
No one will catch Finau’s 7-for-7 in the top-25 markets, Ryan Palmer gives him a run for his money, finishing in top 25 in each of his last four at Torrey Pines.
It has been feast or famine for Rodgers, who is one of the few golfers to have missed four cuts here over the last seven years. The same goes for Xander Schauffele, who has a second-place finish, a 25th, and four other missed cuts.
A couple of other big names have three missed cuts here in the last seven years, including Cameron Smith and Justin Rose.
Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Course History
- Patrick Reed ($9,000)
- Tony Finau ($8,900)
- Ryan Palmer ($7,100)
US Open Form
Each year the US Open changes its venue, giving the players new looks and feels. But a few things remain constant on a year-to-year basis, at least with most venues, and that’s how the USGA sets them up. Nothing is more evident in that hypothesis than the same names on the leaderboard. The longest setups with the hardest rough are just two of the most reoccurring attributes one can find at US Opens.
Two golfers have found the first page of the leaderboard four times over the last six US. Opens: Schauffele and Dustin Johnson. Schauffele is 4-for-4 in finding the top 10 in this event. Some would say that would spell a win coming soon. It should be a pair of wins for Johnson, but a couple of blunders late in the tournament cost him at least one title, if not two.
Brooks Koepka, however, has been the most dominant in the event, even though he missed out on the Winged Foot edition of the event. That was probably good for his sake because he wasn’t beating Bryson DeChambeau that week, who has come in second and first place (twice) in his last three starts at the US Open. These three are joined by McIlroy and Louis Oosthuizen as golfers with at least three top-10s in the US Open since 2015.
Oosthuizen is the only golfer in the field to have found the top 25 in this event six straight years, Koepka has gone for 5-for-5, and Masters Champion Hideki Matsuyama missed out on the top 25 only once in the last six years, missing the cut in 2016. Viktor Hovland has only competed in the event twice and finished in the top 13 both times.
There are plenty of golfers that don’t fare well at these setups. Bubba Watson and Jimmy Walker have missed the cut four times only making the cut twice, and neither of those made cuts yielded anything better than a 35th. Si Woo Kim and Matt Jones are a couple of other popular names that have failed to make the weekend at the US Open in each of the last three years.
It has also been feast or famine here at the US Open for both McIlroy and Justin Rose, who have five combined top-10s in 12 tries combined (three for McIlroy, two for Rose) but also have six combined missed cuts.
Top PGA DFS Picks Based on US Open Form
- Brooks Koepka ($10,100)
- Xander Schauffele ($9,300)
- Louis Oosthuizen ($8,100)
Strokes Gained
It is no secret that the way to win at Torrey Pines is driving the ball the furthest and finding the most fairways. While strokes gained off the tee won’t be everything this week, there should absolutely be a heavier emphasis on it, especially when analyzing golfers on a 1v1 basis.
Latest PGA DFS Content
- Masters Core Plays: PGA DFS Picks
- The Masters First Round Leader Picks, Bets & More (2024)
- Masters DFS Picks: Top Values for The Masters (2024)
- The Masters DFS Preview: Course, PGA DFS Model Plays & Much More
- DraftKings Golf Cheat Sheet: Best PGA DFS Sims Picks for the Masters | Rory McIlroy
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Strokes Gained Tee to Green
- Collin Morikawa
- Jon Rahm
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Patrick Cantlay
- Justin Thomas
- Tony Finau
- Will Zalatoris
- Viktor Hovland
- Brooks Koepka
Strokes Gained Off Tee
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Sergio Garcia
- Jon Rahm
- Viktor Hovland
- Jhonattan Vegas
- Bubba Watson
- Sungjae Im
- Corey Conners
- Rory McIlroy
- Joaquin Niemann
Strokes Gained On Approach
- Collin Morikawa
- Justin Thomas
- Will Zalatoris
- Paul Casey
- Charley Hoffman
- Russell Henley
- Corey Conners
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Jon Rahm
- Tony Finau
- Sam Burns
Strokes Gained Around Green
- Fabian Gomez
- Kevin Na
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Tony Finau
- Jordan Spieth
- Webb Simpson
- Wyndham Clark
- Dylan Frittelli
- Patrick Cantlay
- Cameron Smith
Strokes Gained Putting
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Brendon Todd
- Zach Johnson
- Patrick Reed
- Jason Kokrak
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Ian Poulter
- J.T. Poston
- Xander Schauffele
- Justin Rose
For the yearly strokes gained ranks, Click here.
Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Strokes Gained
- Viktor Hovland ($9,200)
- Patrick Cantlay ($9,100)
- Will Zalatoris ($8,600)
Old School Statistics
I mentioned how important I think off the tee will be this week, so an additional metric has been added to account for that: Club head speed. If any of these golfers get hot with finding the fairway this week, they should score very well as some of the longest drivers of the ball.
Driving Distance
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Rory McIlroy
- Cameron Champ
- Brooks Koepka
- Dustin Johnson
- Matthew Wolff
- Sergio Garcia
- Wyndham Clark
- Jon Rahm
- Xander Schauffele
Club Head Speed
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Cameron Champ
- Gary Woodland
- Rory McIlroy
- Jhonattan Vegas
- Matthew Wolff
- Brooks Koepka
- Sergio Garcia
- Adam Scott
- Dustin Johnson
Total Driving
- Scottie Scheffler
- Jon Rahm
- Jason Kokrak
- Paul Casey
- Sungjae Im
- Viktor Hovland
- Dustin Johnson
- Corey Conners
- Martin Laird
- Sergio Garcia
Greens in Regulation
- Jon Rahm
- Chris Baker
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Collin Morikawa
- Stewart Cink
- Sergio Garcia
- Webb Simpson
- Daniel Berger
- Jason Kokrak
- Will Zalatoris
Scrambling 20-30 Yards
- Collin Morikawa
- Kevin Na
- Ian Poulter
- Matt Wallace
- Cameron Smith
- Scottie Scheffler
- Wyndham Clark
- Patrick Cantlay
- Dylan Frittelli
- Jordan Spieth
- Tom Hoge
Putting 15-20 Feet
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Martin Laird
- Brendon Todd
- Matthew Wolff
- Zach Johnson
- Patrick Reed
- Harris English
- Patrick Rodgers
- Jimmy Walker
- Robby Shelton
Click here to view in Google Sheets.
Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Statistical Analysis
- Bryson DeChambeau ($10,400)
- Paul Casey ($7,900)
- Wyndham Clark ($6,700)
Check out Jason Rouslin’s Top 5 Sleepers PGA DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on our Awesemo YouTube Channel.
Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!
[PGAPAGE]
