It is great to have a week a few weeks stretch on the PGA Tour where data is plentiful and the course is known. That was the case with Copperhead last week at the Valspar Championship and again here with Quail Hollow at the Wells Fargo Championship. PGA DFS is filled with tons of useful information, but at times it can be overwhelming. If this is your first time visiting the article, this statistical overview will focus on recent form, course history, strokes gained and old-school statistics. I will provide notes and a data sheet to help with your PGA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel contests in each category. This week the focus is on The Wells Fargo Championship.
PGA DFS Picks: The Wells Fargo Championship
It has been a crazy nine weeks for Jon Rahm, which includes him becoming a first-time father. He is also one of two golfers in the field with four top-10s in the last nine weeks. He has only competed four times, and he’s 4-for-4. Corey Conners, who added his sixth top-25 last week (most in the field), is the other golfer with four top-10s in the last nine weeks, but he has needed seven starts to do so, while Rahm only needed four.
Keegan Bradley, Brian Harman and Max Homa all have at least four top-25s and two top-10s in the last nine weeks. Other notables with at least three top-25s and two top-10s include Matt Wallace, Camilo Villegas, Will Zalatoris, Cameron Tringale, Shane Lowry, Bubba Watson and Emiliano Grillo. Abraham Ancer is the only other one to note here, having competed six times and finish inside the top 25 all six times, including last week’s fifth at the Valspar.
Austin Cook, Robby Shelton, Peter Malnati, Bo Hoag, C.T. Pan and Andrew Putnam have all really struggled. At most, they’ve only made one cut, and in the last five weeks, there is only one made cut among the six of them. Something has to got to give here in Charlotte this week.
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Course History at Quail Hollow Golf Club
If there is any spot for a few high-profile golfers to break their run of bad form, it would be here at Quail Hollow. Rory McIlroy and Rickie Fowler have not missed a weekend in their 11 combined starts since 2014, and in those 11 starts, seven have ended with top-10s. Fowler has three and McIlroy has four, and McIlroy also added a win here back in 2015. Only four other golfers have multiple top-10s here since 2014: Phil Mickelson, Justin Thomas, Patrick Reed and Jason Day.
A couple of names are added to the good history mix when looking at top-25s, including Gary Woodland, who has four since 2014. Others with three include Webb Simpson, Francesco Molinari, Robert Streb, Chesson Hadley and Reed.
Last to note, both Joel Dahmen and Aaron Wise have a second-place finish and another top-20 in their two trips to Quail Hollow.
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Past winners like Day and McIlroy would suggest that this is a bomber’s course, but Homa showed an all-around game could work out just as well. Do not discount the other statistics this week in favor of strokes gained off the tee solely, but it may be prudent to lean that way if it comes down to one of two golfers.
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Strokes Gained Tee to Green
Bryson DeChambeau (1), Rahm (2), Thomas (2), Tony Finau (5), Viktor Hovland (6), Bradley (7)
Strokes Gained Off Tee
DeChambeau (1), Rahm (3), Hovland (4), McIlroy (5), Sungjae Im (7), Conners (8)
Strokes Gained On Approach
Thomas (2), Zalatoris (4), Russell Henley (5), Bradley (7)
Strokes Gained Around Green
Joseph Bramlett (4), Thomas (11), Brendon Todd (12), Xander Schauffele (13), Adam Hadwin (14), Fowler (15)
Strokes Gained Putting
Reed (1), Brendon Todd (4), Kris Ventura (6), Xander Schauffele (9), Zach Johnson (10)
For the yearly strokes gained ranks, Click here.
Old School Statistics for PGA DFS Analysis
Keeping the ball in play and elite iron games have been the winning formula at Harbour Town for the past few years. Just look at past winners like Simpson, Pan and Satoshi Kodaira. None of them are even ranked inside the top 150 in driving distance, showcasing brute force cannot overtake this golf course. Let’s focus on stats that aren’t driving distance this week for the first time in a while.
DeChambeau (1), Ryan Brehm (2), McIlroy (4), Wyndham Clark (9), Keith Mitchell (10), Rahm (11)
Rahm (2), Im (3), Joaquin Niemann (4), Bradley (5), James Hahn (6), Hovland (8)
Greens In Regulation
Rahm (1), DeChambeau (2), Stewart Cink (3), Grillo (5), Matthew NeSmith (6)
Simpson (1), Patrick Cantlay (2), Scott Stallings (3), Henley (4), Ian Poulter (4), Putnam (7)
Putting 15-20 feet
Rafael Campos (3), Harris English (5), Reed (5), Patrick Rodgers (7), Jimmy Walker (8)
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Data-Driven PGA DFS Picks for The Wells Fargo Championship
That was a lot of information to digest. At the end of each weekly article, I will provide some of the names that appear with positive data in at least two of the four. These should make for good PGA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel.
- Jon Rahm
- Keegan Bradley
- Webb Simpson
- Patrick Reed
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