The return to some normalcy is likely going to be a gradual process rather than a sprint. Being able to sit down and write this article every Sunday sets my entire PGA DFS week. This is the first installment in our weekly PGA content for DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft, breaking down the best PGA DFS picks and everything you need to know for The Memorial.
If this is your first time reading the article, or you’ve simply forgotten all about PGA DFS, then I’ll give you a quick summary of what’s to come:
- Tournament Intro
- Course Breakdown and DFS Sweatsheet
- Player Preview
- Statistical Preview
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Tournament Intro: The Memorial
The second of two weeks at Muirfield Village will give us plenty of reason to watch again, as Tiger Woods makes his return to the golf course, a full five months after we last saw him in competition. He won’t be the only one returning to the course, as Rory McIlroy and many others come to play one of the best tournaments and strongest fields all year. The course always plays tough and fast, something Tiger loves. The famous handshake for the winner from Jack Nicklaus on the 18th green may not happen this year, or at least in the form we typically see it in. But I suspect we’ll still get Nicklaus’ presence throughout the week. It is one of only three tournaments to receive invitational status, one that rewards the winner with a three-year exemption. Because of this, the field size is reduced to 120 players with different qualifications to get into the tournament.
A couple of changes are sure to be made for this week’s event, including the speed of the greens and rough length. Both should play harder, precisely the way Tiger likes it. Let’s dig into these facts and a couple of new ones from this past week.
Tournament Format
There are 120 players with the top 65 and ties making the cut after 36 holes, which we know is the worst thing about PGA DFS. That means you might have a better chance to get 6-for-6 this week.
*However, because of the epidemic, it seems the field size has expanded to 133 for this year’s contest.
Course Commentary: Muirfield Village Golf Club
Course Profile
Par and YardageÂ
- Par 72: 7,400
Course Difficulty 2019 & 2020 (to be updated Monday afternoon)
- 13/49: +.08 over par. 2019
Hole Dispersion
- Four par 3’s: 200, 185, 185, 201
- 10 par 4’s: 470, 455, 401, 447, 412, 471, 455, 363, 478, 484
- Four par 5’s: 527, 563, 567, 529
Grass Types & Hazards (if available)Â
- Grass Type: Bent
- Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. feet.
- Water Hazards: 13
- Bunkers: 73
DesignerÂ
- Jack Nicklaus
Facts and Figures (2019& 2020 numbers)
- Off the Tee:Â Even though the rough length is expected to grow in an inch or two thicker, I don’t think it’ll change how the course plays off the tee. Last year, the fairways were hit on average about 70% of the time. Due to this, Nicklaus and his team made some enhancements to the course, and it seemed to work, as driving accuracy came down from the 70% to near 59%.
- Approach to the green:Â In 2019, the greens were hit at less than ideal average, around 68% of the time. That, for sure, doesn’t help the golfers that aren’t good around the green. With the lower percentage of fairways hit this year, the greens were also significantly harder to hit, coming in at 63% of the time, the sixth-hardest of the year.
- Around the Green: When a golfer missed the green, which was 37% of the time, he failed to get up and down at least 45% of the time. That makes it one of the hardest on Tour all year. Scrambling percentage ticked down a bit, making it the hardest of this shortened season with golfers only getting up and down 52% of the time.
- On the Green: Once on the greens, however, they aren’t incredibly tricky. In terms of overall putting average, it ranked in the Top 11 easiest last year. Greens were receptive once on them again, as it came in as one of the easiest to make putts on the whole year.
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Sweatsheet and CommentaryÂ
With the average score being over par, and four par 5s on the course, you know there are some brutal ones out there. The par 5s add up to over 40% of the total scoring with only one other hole getting above 5%. The best chance at a birdie streak on the week will be holes 5-7. That means there is no real stacking advantage for showdown purposes.
A big change from last year’s scores to last week’s was the 14th hole. Last week, the 14th hole played as a drivable par 4, but that is expected to switch back to the stated 363-yard hole for The Memorial. Maybe Bryson DeChambeau can still drive it, but not many others will be able to.
Player Preview
The Expected Top-30 Players in the Field by OWGR and Corresponding Odds (Updated Monday p.m. with Odds and Newest OWGR Ranking)Â
Among Top-10 golfers, only Adam Scott, currently ranked 10th in the world, is not competing here this week. Only two more golfers are missing the from top 20 other than Scott. It’s two Englishman: Tyrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood. This looks like one of the best, and strongest fields all year, outside of majors. It should give us a good preview of what’s to come in a month’s time at TPC Harding Park for the PGA Championship.
Previous Winners & Cutline:
- Workday* 2020: Collin Morikawa (-19), cut line was -2.
- 2019: Patrick Cantlay (-19), cut line was +1
- 2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-15), cut line was E
- 2017: Jason Dufner (-13), cut line was +3
- 2016: William McGirt (-15), cut line was -2
- 2015: David Lingmerth (-15), cut line was -1
Statistical Comparison for PGA DFS Picks
- Driving Accuracy vs. Driving Distance:Â The note from last week’s First Cut was “Total Driving” with a combo of length and accuracy. Thomas, Hovland and Collin Morikawa all exemplified that this past week, a recipe for certain success here.
- Strokes Gained Tee to Green Analysis:Â David Lingemerth was the only winner out of the last five years to not have a good week around the green with that being the highest correlation to the winner’s score we’ve seen since the restart. All of the golfers except DeChambeau ranked inside the Top 10 in strokes gained on the approach for the week. No golfer gained over a stroke off the tee en route to their win. In fact, it’s one of the hardest places to gain more than a stroke off the tee, as it averages only two a year. Morikawa was incredibly impressive with his irons, so he didn’t need his around the green game much. But when he did, it didn’t let him down as he gained a little bit on the field.
- Putting; How good do they need to be here?: A hot putter is definitely the key here. Morikawa continued the streak of golfers that aren’t necessarily the best putters, but when they get hot, they don’t miss and have a good chance to win. Cantlay fits this mold, as does DeChambeau.
Related PGA Content
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