PGA DFS Picks: The First Cut Tour Championship Preview

Thanks for stopping by The First Cut! This is the first installment in our weekly PGA content for DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft, breaking down the best PGA DFS picks and everything you need to know for the Tour Championship, the last leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

If this is your first time reading the article, or you’ve forgotten all about PGA DFS, then I’ll give you a quick summary of what’s to come:

Tournament Intro
Course Breakdown and PGA DFS Sweatsheet
Player Preview
Statistical Preview

PGA DFS Picks: The Tour Championship

The top 30 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings have been crowned, and now they’ll duel it out for the biggest prize in golf, $15 million. This marks the second year the Tour is also implementing a staggered start, which the golfer who performed the best during the regular season and the two previous playoffs events starts at 10 under par. From there its is a sliding scale all the way down to even par. The winner on Sunday evening will win both the FedEx Cup and the Tour Championship. Here’s what that breakdown for this year looks like:

STARTING STROKES	FEDEX CUP RANK/PLAYER
10 under	1. Dustin Johnson
8 under	2. Jon Rahm
7 under	3. Justin Thomas
6 under	4. Webb Simpson
5 under	5. Collin Morikawa
4 under	6. Daniel Berger 7. Harris English 8. Bryson DeChambeau 9. Sungjae Im 10. Hideki Matsuyama
3 under	11. Brendon Todd 12. Rory McIlroy 13. Patrick Reed 14. Xander Schauffele 15. Sebastian Munoz
2 under	16. Lanto Griffin 17. Scottie Scheffler 18. Joaquin Niemann 19. Tyrell Hatton 20. Tony Finau
1 under	21. Kevin Kisner 22. Abraham Ancer 23. Ryan Palmer 24. Kevin Na 25. Marc Leishman
Even par	26. Cameron Smith 27. Viktor Hovland 28. Mackenzie Hughes 29. Cameron Champ 30. Billy Horschel

Course Commentary: East Lake Country Club

East Lake is another par 70 around 7,400 yards, marking the second straight week the golfers will face a similar golf course setup, but with much less emphasis on rough length. Golfers that teed it up at Olympia Fields last week, which is everyone except for Webb Simpson, will have played with roughs five inches or longer, making it almost impossible to control the ball in most spots. This week, if the course plays like it has the last few years, they should only see about 2.5 inches in most spots, and instead of the sticky, hard-to-hit-out-of Kentucky bluegrass, they get Bermuda throughout.

Tournament Commentary

The Tour Championship has been played here at East Lake since 2004, and it first hosted the tournament back in 1998. If you aren’t familiar with the East Lake neighborhood, I’ll tell you a bit about it. In the mid-’90s, investor Tom Cousins struck a deal with the city of Atlanta to build a mixed-income neighborhood. It has flourished since then as one of the best communities in the Atlanta area and has been a model for newer communities built with the same ideals.

Tournament Format

With only 30 golfers in the field, there is no cut this week.

Course Facts & Figures: East Lake Country Club

Par and Yardage

Par 70: 7,300 yards

Course Difficulty

14/49 in 2019 or +.033 (70.03)

Hole Dispersion

Four Par 3’s: 197, 235, 214, 211
12 Par 4’s: 469, 391, 479, 442, 481, 455, 424, 389, 440, 520, 455, 430
Two Par 5’s: 525, 590

Grass Types & Hazards

Grass Type: Bermuda
Average Green Size: 6,300 sq. ft.
Water Hazards: 6
Bunkers: 74

Designer

Donald Ross/Rees Jones

Facts and Figures

Off the Tee: Golfers that make it here do not really care much about the 2.5-inch Bermuda rough, as the total driving distance ranked 38th out of 49 courses last year. To no one’s surprise, that meant a lot of fairways missed. Only 55% of them were hit on the week.
Approach to the Green: Below-average fairways hit (ninth hardest in 2019) meant for below-average greens in regulation, coming in at 63% for the week last year.
Around the Green: Scrambling came in at 58% last year, good enough for 18th out of 49. One thing of note, though, the bunkers here seem to be very easy, as the sand save percentage was third-highest on the PGA Tour.
On the Green: As long as players get on the right side of a Donald Ross green, their putts are makeable. Get on the wrong side, and a three-putt is definitely in play as well. This course ranked 30th last year in overall putting average.

PGA DFS Sweatsheet and Commentary

Unlike last week, the par 5’s are gettable here at East Lake, compared to last week where each of the par 5’s still played rather difficult. That is not the case this week, however, with the two par 5’s totaling over 31%. The next easiest holes are 12 and 17.

Player Preview

The Top 30 from the FedEx Cup Standings

Previous Winners and Cutline for the BMW Championship (Held at Different Courses)

2019: Rory McIlroy (-13)
2018: Tiger Woods (-11)
2017: Xander Schauffele (-12)
2016: Rory McIlroy (-12)
2015: Jordan Spieth (-9)

Statistical Comparison

Driving Accuracy vs. Driving Distance: Four of the five winners hit 64% of their fairways, which would place about 10% above the average. I’d also consider most of those guys bombers, with Spieth being the exception, so I’d lean bombers here over accuracy.
Strokes Gained Tee to Green Analysis: For the first time in quite a while, all of the winners gained more strokes off the tee than they did in any other category. That should bode well for Bryson DeChambeau and others that lean heavily on their driver.
Putting; How good do they need to be here?: Only Woods and Spieth were in the top three in terms of strokes gained putting for the week, so it’s not overall important to be the best putter.

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Author

Jason Rouslin

Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].