PGA DFS Picks: U.S. Open Player Preview | DraftKings + FanDuel 9/14

Thanks for stopping by The First Cut! This is the first installment in our weekly PGA content for DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft, breaking down the best PGA DFS picks and everything you need to know for the U.S. Open.

If this is your first time reading the article, or you’ve forgotten all about PGA DFS, then I’ll give you a quick summary of what’s to come:

Tournament Intro
Course Breakdown and PGA DFS Sweatsheet
Player Preview
Statistical Preview
All Non-PGA Tour Players that qualified for this year’s U.S. Open.

PGA DFS Picks: The U.S. Open

Typically one of the most grueling tests of golf, both to qualify for the event and then the event itself, this year will have a bit of a different field. Instead of the sectional qualifying that would generate a good portion of the field, it instead changes to a vastly different set of criteria, which we will get into towards the end of the article. This year the tournament returns to Westchester County in New York and back to the famed Winged Foot Golf Club. Including the U.S. Amateur, this will be the 12th major the course has held and the first since Geoff Ogilvy’s triumphant win over Phil Mickelson in the 2006 U.S. Open.

The Tournament

It wouldn’t be U.S. Open week if I didn’t get my obligatory Rhode Island comment in there, as the first ever playing of the tournament was held at Newport Country Club in Newport, R.I. Since par was tracked back in 1930, the winning score has been over par 28 times and even par another seven times. The last time an over-par score won an Open was Brooks Koepka in 2018, just a couple of frog necks away from this week’s host.

The Course: Winged Foot Golf Club

A Par 70 that now measures just shy of 7,500 yards, much will be made about the difficulty of the course throughout the week. With NBC getting the television rights back, their subsidiary Golf Channel will have coverage all week, starting tomorrow. A great video has already been posted on Twitter as well, showcasing just how hard the golf course will be playing from the rough this week.

Hot tip for players at Winged Foot for the @usopengolf: Stay out of the rough. Caddie Kenny Harms shows you just how brutal it is not far off the fairways. pic.twitter.com/eD2b6jltUI

— Caddie Network (@CaddieNetwork) September 13, 2020

We have some stats to share from the 2006 event, which should give us some sense of how the course will play this week. As always, no two tournaments are the same, even if they are played at the same event. Weather and course conditions can vastly affect scoring averages one way or the other. There is no better example than last year’s winner, Gary Woodland, who won at -13 playing at Pebble Beach. Graeme McDowell played a fantastic tournament to shoot even par at the same course in 2010. Course conditions were the big factor there, as a hard and firm Pebble Beach proved to be too much for most golfers in the 2010 showing.

Tournament Format

There are 144 golfers with a cut after 36 holes and the top 60 and ties making the cut

Course Facts & Figures

Par and Yardage

Par 70: 7,500 yards

Course Difficulty

While we don’t have concrete numbers from the 2006 season, the cut was +10.

Hole Dispersion

Four Par 3s: 243, 162, 214, 212
12 Par 4s: 451, 484, 467, 321, 490, 384, 452, 426, 498, 504, 470
Two Par 5s: 565, 633

Grass Types & Hazards

Grass Type: Poa/Bent
Average Green Size: 6,600 sq. ft.
Water Hazards: 2
Bunkers: 76
Rough Length: 3.5 first cut (six feet wide) five-inch second cut.

Designer

A.W. Tillinghast with Gil Hanse Restoration 2013-2015

Facts and Figures

Off the Tee: Similar to what we saw at TPC Harding Park, the fairways are hard to hit at Winged Foot, fairways hit rate in 2006 was just above 50%.
Approach to the Green: A lot of missed fairways and long five-inch rough is likely going to make hitting the green very hard. In 2006, golfers hit greens 51% of the time. It is no wonder why +5 was the winning score. That would rank the hardest pretty much every year on tour.
Around the Green: If one misses the green at Winged Foot, it is big trouble. Golfers will only get up and down 40% of the time this week, at least if the course plays anything like 2006.
On the Green: When one finally gets on the green, they’ll be lucky to make it on the first try, with the putting average coming in a whole 0.12 higher than the tour average back in 2006. For comparison, that’s one of the largest betas from the average, making it one of the hardest on tour that year.

Sweatsheet and Commentary

PGA DFS picks

With stats a little harder to come by, I’ve made my own cheat sheet for the week. It’s far from scientific, but I’m basing it off of 408 holes played. This should at least give us an indication of where golfers will need to pick up strokes this week. The sixth hole will set up as a drivable par four each day and will be the first real scoring opportunity the golfers get. The first and fourth holes could turn into scoring holes with reasonable drives, but the others in that front six will be daunting.

Then there will be the shortest par 3 on the course, which should play on the easier side, follower by a long par 4 and the shorter of the two par 5s .

The back nine has two or three scorable par 4s and a long par 5. Outside of those holes, the course should play well over par this week.

Player Preview

Since it is a major, the best of the best are here to play this week. We know most of those golfers at this point, but I thought I’d do something a bit different and talk about all the golfers that are not PGA Tour players that qualified this week. It may be a bit long, but if you are a sponge like me, then you’ll love this. I’m going to break it into a few different sections done by the exemption category.

Exemption Category: First Five events on the 2020 European Tour’s 2020 UK Swing

My Top Five

Rasmus Hojgaard ($6,800): The 19-year-old from Denmark has had an incredible run of golf since the restart. He’s finished second, sixth, third, first and 31st in his five starts. That easily qualified him for the event this week, where he’ll be making his first start. He’s easily my favorite Euro player of these 10. I think this will be just the beginning of what we can see from him. Another fun tidbit about Hojgaard, he has a twin brother who is also on the European PGA Tour, Nicolai.
Sam Horsfield has had to withdraw from the event due to COVID 19.
Andy Sullivan ($6,300): Sullivan is an Englishmen that has found success on the European Tour over the years but never on the PGA Tour. He’s here by ranking inside the top 10 of the first five events of the Euro Tour’s U.K swing. At that time, he had a win and a top five while only missing one cut.
Renato Paratore ($6,400): Paratore is a young Italian golfer that found his stride right out of the gates after the European Tours restart, winning the BetFred British Masters. That all but locked up his spot in the field this week. It will be his second start in a U.S. Open, missing the cut last year.
Sami Valimaki ($6,300): The 22-year-old from Finland has had a crazy run the last year. He was bouncing around local tours, and the Challenge tour, the European version of the Korn Ferry Tour. A good qualifying school got him some starts. From there, he won the Oman Open, his fourth start on the big boy tour. That gave him status to play in pretty much any tournament on that tour. He came out of the restart with a couple of missed cuts but quickly found his form by going sixth at the Celtic Classic, second at the Wales Open and 10th at the Andalucia Masters. Those starts are the reason he’s here this week.

Bottom Five

Connor Syme ($6,400): Hailing from Scotland, the 25-year-old Syme had a rough start to the UK Swing. But, after a missed cut and a 68th, he bounced back with a 19th, a third, a seventh and an eighth. This will be his first appearance at a U.S. Open.
Justin Harding ($6,300): At times dubbed as the Jordan Spieth from South Africa, the 34-year-old had a burst onto the scene over the last few years, relying on his putting to get it done. He played in last year’s event but missed the cut. Harding made it here by coming in third at the Betfred Masters. He followed that up with another third-place finish at the Andalucia Masters two weeks ago.
Thomas Detry ($6,500): The 27-year-old from Belgium can certainly be tagged in with the Belgian Bomber stereotype. He’s enjoyed a very nice restart, missing only one cut in five tries, with three top 10s and two top fives.
Romain Langasque ($6,400): The Frenchman, 25, will be making his first appearance in a U.S. Open. Langasque had a nice come-from-behind victory and won the Handa Wales Open at Celtic Manor, earning him a spot in this week’s field.
Adrian Otaegui ($6,200): The 27-year-old from Spain is making his first appearance in a U.S. Open. He was able to secure a spot in the field in large part due to his second-place finish at the English Championship and 14th the following week at the Celtic Classic.

Exemption Category: Korn Ferry Tour Regular Season Top Five Point leaders

Will Zalatoris ($6,700): Zalatoris is a 24-year-old who hadn’t quite broken through on the professional level until this year. H’s had an amazing run now on the Korn Ferry Tour, with 11 straight starts where he finished inside the top 20, including eight top 10s. Sure, those may not have been against the world’s best each week, but the competition on the Korn Ferry Tour is fierce. Zalatoris missed the cut at the 2018 U.S. Open.
Davis Riley ($6,300): Losing to Zalatoris in the U.S Amateur a few years back, Riley has endured a good restart to he season as well, getting the win out in San Antonio. The 23-year-old will be competing for the second time at the U.S. Open, first playing as an 18-year-old at Chambers Bay, where he missed the cut.
Lee Hodges ($6,300): The 25-year-old played with some of the best in college, attending the University of Alabama. But he’s yet to really break through in professional golf prior to this year, where he won the WinCo Foods Portland Open. That came after five straight top 20s.
Taylor Pendrith ($6,100): The 29-year-old from Canada had a nice four-tournament stretch, coming in third once and second three straight tournaments. That was easily good enough to earn him one of five spots in the field this week.
Paul Barjon ($6,000): The second Frenchman here in this list, the 27-year-old Barjon will be making his first appearance at a U.S. Open. Barjon has accumulated four top 10s over the last eight weeks but has four missed cuts on top of that.

Exemption Category: Korn Ferry Tour Postseason Top Five Point Leaders

Brandon Wu ($6,600): Here is one I’m quite excited about this week. I’ve played Wu before in some places, and it’s also his second start at an Open. He made the cut in his first try, coming in 35th last year. Now, he heads home to a course growing up no more than 15 minutes from it. Wu is here after winning the Korn Ferry Tour Championship a week ago. Two weeks before that, he had a second-place finish as well, so he seems to be in great form heading back home.
Stephan Jaeger ($6,100): It wasn’t long ago Jaeger was tweeting that he’d be giving lessons in the area he was for $50 bucks an hour. Now, a Korn Ferry Tour winner again after winning the Boise Open, Jaeger followed up that good play with a fifth place at the Nationwide Children’s Hospital, and another top 10 this past week. This will be Jaeger’s third start at a U.S. Open, making the cut at Erin Hills in 2017 but missing the cut at Chambers Bay in 2015.
Curtis Luck ($6,100): Only 24 years old, Luck was supposed to be the next big thing from Australia. His first big win came at the 2016 U.S. Amateur. Luck hadn’t broken through on the professional ranks, but the win at the Nationwide Children’s Hospital Championship might have just changed the trajectory of his career
Greyson Sigg ($6,100): The 25-year-old has taken a bit to get going in the professional rank. However, with an 11th at the Boise Open and the second place at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship, Sigg earned enough to get him a spot in this week’s field.
Daniel McCarthy ($6,000): Not to be confused with Denny McCarthy, the 35-year-old from Syracuse will make his second U.S. Open start, his first in the last 10 years. He missed the cut back in 2010 at Pebble Beach. McCarthy earned the exemption by coming in third at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship. He also added a second at the Kraft Nabisco Boise Open.

Exemption Category: Asian Tour/ Australasia/ Sunshine Tour

J.C. Ritchie ($6,000): The 26-year-old from South Africa lead the Sunshine Tour’s order of merit, earning him a spot in this week’s field.
Ryan Fox ($6,600): The Euro Tour vet also plays on the Australasia Tour. He finished first in the standings, earning him a spot in this week’s field.

Exemption Category: PGA Professionals

Ryan Vermeer
Marty Jertson
Danny Balin

Amateurs in This Week’s Field: *WAGR= World Amateur Golf Ranking

James Sugrue ($6,100): The 24-year-old from Ireland won the 2019 Amateur Championship, and since the tournament wasn’t able to be competed this year, James keeps the exemption.
Cole Hammer ($6,200): The 21-year-old from Texas is here on the 2019 McCormack Medal for being the No. 1-ranked amateur in the world. Since then, Hammer has dropped all the way to 20th in the WAGR rankings.
Takumi Kanaya ($6,100): Currently ranked No. 1 on the WAGR list, the 20-year-old from Japan will be turning pro in the near future. We’ve seen him recently at the Emirates Australian Open, where he finished third. In addition, we’ve also seen him at the Japan Golf Tour Fujisankei Classic, where he finished fifth.
Ricky Castillo ($6,000): Ranked second on the WAGR, Castillo is just a sophomore at the University of Florida. The most recent event we’ve seen him at was at the Western Amateur Championship. He finished third just over a month ago.
Chun An Yu ($6,100): Currently Attending Arizona State University, Yu last seen at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he missed the cut. He ranks third on the WAGR.
Davis Thompson ($6,000): The University of Georgia product, Thompson ranks fourth in the WAGR. A junior, Thompson is also ranked fourth on the initial PGA Tour university rankings this season.
Eduard Rousaud Sabate ($6,000): Part of the 2018 Junior Ryder Cup team, information on Sabate is a bit scarce.
John Pak ($6,000): Pak is entering his senior season at FSU. He’ll look to transition on the PGA Tour after his last season in Tallahassee.
Sandy Scott ($6,000): A senior at Texas Tech, Scott is here because he slipped inside the top 10 WAGR. From Narin, Scotland, Scott will be making his first appearance at a U.S. Open.

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Author

Jason Rouslin

Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].