This week marks the first iteration of the Mexico Open. The event semi-replaces the old WGC Mexico event which used to run before the Masters in March but leaves a much-reduced field. Just five of the world’s top 50 players are in attendance after Daniel Berger withdrew and there is an atrociously short betting favorite in Jon Rahm this week who is going off at +350 in some spots.
The weaker field means it will be wide open for DFS golf purposes too and that is where the Awesemo projections can help. The venue they will be using this year is Vidanta Vallarta, a Greg Norman designed course that looks similar, albeit larger and longer, to his El Chameleon setup that is used for the PGA’s other Mexican stop, the Mayakoba Classic. Players who are used to playing in tropical settings like Mayakoba, Punta Cana and Puerto Rico could have an edge given the paspalum greens this week mimic what the players see at those stops every season.
DFS Golf Rankings & Expert Mexico Open 2022 Picks
Vidanta Vallarta Stats and Info
- Greg Norman designed venue: 7,456 yards, par 71
- Greens: Paspalum
- Resort-style setup that plays as a par 73 for amateurs
- Lots of large natural bunkers surround the greens but fairways reportedly are quite large with lots of big landing spots
- Expect receptive greens and for this to turn into more of an approach/putting contest with the venue likely being easier off the tee for everyone
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Mexico Open 2022 DFS Golf Picks & Fantasy Golf Rankings
Aaron Wise: Grades: A, Values: B
The fact that Aaron Wise is +3000 in this field tells you about how respected his talent level is. Any sniff of form generally drives his betting prices down and this week it has also driven his daily fantasy salary up too. That does not mean he is a poor value though. Wise has posted top-20 finishes in two of his last four starts on the PGA Tour and looked in great form for most of the RBC Heritage before a poor ending dragged him out of the top 10. Like many in this field, the step down in competition should help Wise and he has typically performed great in these weaker field events.
The Byron Nelson in 2018 (his only win) was on a similar quirky course where scoring was generally not difficult. He has also grabbed top-five finishes at the Barracuda and Bermuda Championships. Wise should be in his wheelhouse this week then and comes in off a confidence-inspiring performance, even if the finish was not what he wanted. He ranks out as the top projected play under $10,000 this week in the Awesemo Model and is a good way to start lineups if you are planning to fade the $10,000 and above names.
- Has gained three strokes or more tee to green in three of his last four starts.
- Prior to the RBC Heritage, had gained 1.5 strokes or more on approach in three straight starts.
- Has top-five finishes at both the Bermuda Championship and Mayakoba Classic.
Charles Howell III: Grades: B, Values: B
When thinking about who might show up this week to compete, you cannot forget about the veterans in this field. Too often, random names like Brice Garnett and Graeme McDowell have popped off at these secondary events with weaker fields on quirky setups. Charles Howell III looks to finally be gaining some traction in what has been, to this point, a mostly fruitless season.
Howell had gained over three strokes on approach in his previous two starts, prior to the RBC Heritage, an event that has never really been his cup of tea. He has done well on Greg Norman venues though, grabbing numerous top finishes at the Mayakoba Classic and is fresh off a fourth-place finish at another Norman-designed venue in TPC San Antonio. Howell is also projecting well this week, as he has the second-highest points projection of anyone under $8,500, but his experience playing in these type of events should shine through and makes him an even more attractive option. Ignoring the recent missed cut and taking the moderate salary offered seems prudent.
- Has gained over +3.0 strokes on Approach in two of his last three starts on the PGA TOUR
- Has five top-10 finishes on Greg Norman designed courses (TPC San Antonio and El Chameleon) since 2013
Awesemo golf betting experts Ben Rasa and Eytan Shander will be coming to you every week on the OddsShopper YouTube Channel with the Putting for Dough golf betting show, where they give you their expert PGA picks and predictions for the week. This week, they are giving their free golf betting picks for the Mexico Open 2022.
Low-Owned Daily Fantasy Golf GPP Flier
Brendon Todd ($9,300)
This is a weaker field event that is taking place in a tropical setting, on what should be receptive greens. That has been a great formula for Brendon Todd throughout his career, who picked up two wins in late 2020 in Bermuda and Mexico against similar style fields. Todd has been showing some increased form of late, which is likely why his salary has skyrocketed into the $9,000 range. Even in this weaker field, that salary looks to be drawing people off him, which is great for his GPP prospects, as he is someone who has proven to have the confidence to perform when the field strength gets to this level.
Todd has now made three cuts in a row, which started off with an eighth-place finish at another Greg Norman course (TPC San Antonio). As per usual, the putter has been carrying Todd but his approach game has been great lately too, gaining him strokes in three straight starts. If he continues that trend, he should rack up a bunch of birdies in what should be an easy off-the-tee venue for the shorter hitter. As a GPP play, he is a great way to pay up for low ownership this week.
Top Three Under 5% in DraftKings Fantasy Golf This Week
This section will target players that should end up under or close to 5% ownership in larger DraftKings Golf GPPs. These picks are boom/bust PGA DFS players with an almost 100% focus on the upside.
Peter Uihlein ($7,000)
Uihlein has played all over the world in his career, which started over in Europe. He has grabbed multiple top-10 finishes at the Puerto Rico Open and recently landed himself a second-place finish on the Korn Ferry Tour. The competition this week is not much stiffer than what he saw there and Uihlein is capable enough with the putter to get hot this week and challenge for a top placing.
Graeme McDowell ($7,100)
It is surprising McDowell has not gotten at least a little heat this week, but he is trending with super low ownership projections. He finished top 25 at the RBC Heritage and has wins in Puerto Rico and in Punta Cana, both weaker field events where paspalum greens were involved. As a GPP play, you will get well below sub-5% ownership.
Wyndham Clark ($7,600)
Clark certainly feels like the type of player who could pull off something great this week. He has made three cuts in a row, is coming off a confidence-inspiring top-10 finish at the team event and has shown improved iron play of late. He nearly won in Bermuda last season and should like the huge fairways given how far he drives it.
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The Yahoo! PGA DFS projections for this week, the FanDuel PGA DFS showdown projections for today and the FanDuel DFS PGA ownership projections for this week are made and used by Alex Baker, the No. 1 DFS player in the world. Looking for more DFS PGA stats and PGA DFS advice? PGA DFS rankings for FantasyDraft will be posted at least a day in advance of any tournament.
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