DFS Golf Picks This Week & Expert Rankings for the 2022 Honda Classic

The Florida swing starts by making a stop at PGA National, which is consistently lauded as being one of the best venues of the year by fans but fails to draw strong fields for the most part. None of the top-10 players from the Official World Golf Rankings are in attendance this week, with Louis Oosthuizen (13) and Brooks Koepka (15) being the top two ranked players in the field. The lack of star names is not great for the sponsors, but for DFS golf picks purposes it will definitely make for an interesting week in what is shaping up to be a wide-open event. With the parity likely to run throughout the tournament, the question is: who should be targeted for our as the top fantasy golf picks this week for PGA DFS lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel?

One reason why this event often delivers excitement, regardless of the field, is the course. PGA National is a water and sand-laden mine trap that delivers major-caliber scoring every season. It is a Jack Nicklaus design that brings water into play on 15 of the 18 holes and features a menacing closing stretch, with the famous “Bear Trap” (holes 15 through 17) being the main attraction for viewers. The 7,125-yard par 70 stresses both approach and short games, while deemphasizing power with lots of less than driver tee shots. Veterans and long-shot winners, like last year’s champion Matt Jones, have been quite frequent at PGA National as well, so do not be afraid to look at less recognizable names this week in DFS.

Expert Fantasy Golf Picks: 2022 Honda Classic

PGA National Golf Links Stats and Info

  • Greens-in-regulation percentages are very low at PGA National, typically 5 to 8% lower for the field than an average tour stop. Water and longer approaches into many par 3’s and 4’s cause higher rates of misses.
  • Driving distance is also de-emphasized at PGA National, as the average for the week has typically come in 8 to 10 yards under tour average. Players are often forced to club down to avoid water or due to doglegs.
  • The last two winners here gained +5.0 strokes or more on Approach for the week, and each of the last three winners gained +3.0 or more strokes around the green as well

Awesemo golf betting experts Ben Rasa and Eytan Shander will be coming to you every week on the OddsShopper YouTube Channel with the Putting for Dough golf betting show, where they give you their expert PGA picks and predictions for the week. This week, they are giving their free golf betting picks for the 2022 Honda Classic.

Putting Splits

The greens at PGA National are TifEagle Bermuda and tend to run on the fast side of things. It is a big change this week for many of the players who have putted on Poa in three of their last four outings. Here is a more general look at some of the best and worst Bermuda putters in the field, relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these in your daily fantasy golf picks; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.

Positive Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Denny McCarthy: +43 strokes on Bermudagrass, +4 on all other surfaces
2. Harry Higgs: +24 on Bermudagrass, +7 on all other surfaces
3. Joaquin Niemann: +23 on Bermudagrass, +4 on all other surfaces
*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost

Negative Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Tommy Fleetwood: -6 on Bermudagrass, +10 on all other surfaces
2. Doug Ghim: -23 on Bermudagrass, -2 on all other surfaces
3. SungJae Im: -4 on Bermudagrass, +10 on all other surfaces


Latest PGA DFS Content


DFS Golf Picks & Fantasy Golf Rankings for DraftKings & FanDuel

Daniel Berger: Grades: A+, Values: C, B

The grades this week are quite close at the top as there are three players sitting within 1.0 projected points of each other in the Awesemo Model. The top projected play of that group though is Daniel Berger. As just the fourth-most expensive player on DraftKings this week, he does appear to be the best upper-tier value. Berger has not had the greatest start to 2022, as he put in a bad missed cut two weeks ago in Phoenix and had been previously dealing with an injured back. The injury issue does not seem overly serious. He is now nearly a month removed from withdrawing from the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and also back in his home state of Florida.

Berger has had some great results at PGA National, taking a solo 2nd place at the Honda Classic back in 2015 as a rookie and adding another top-five finish to that resume in 2020. He had gained strokes on Approach in 13 straight events prior to the missed cut in Phoenix and leads this field in long-term form in both Strokes Gained Approach and Ball-Striking stats. His ownership will be up there this week but he is also pretty clearly the cream of the crop in this very weak field. Any bounce-back to the mean, in terms of ball-striking, should have Berger put in a very strong week in what has been one of his strongest events on Tour.

The Stats:

  • Leads the field in Strokes Gained Approach and Ball-Striking stats over the last 50-rounds
  • Has suffered just one missed cut in his last 13-starts; has two top-five finishes in five career appearances at the Honda Classic

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 20.4% | FanDuel: 27.1%

Shane Lowry: Grades: A,  Values: C

As mentioned above, the projections this week on Awesemo are quite tight at many price-ranges. The sub-$10,000 range on DraftKings is likely to see condensed ownership on a few players, including the likes of Billy Horschel and Keith Mitchell. While both of those names have been playing well, it is worth noting that Shane Lowry has nearly the exact same projection in the Awesemo Model as Horschel this week and the two come in as the highest rated players under $10,000 for play in DraftKings daily fantasy golf.

Lowry has been plying his trade over in Europe to begin the year but he ranks out very strongly in long-term form, coming in fifth in Strokes Gained Tee to Green stats and sixth in Around the Green play over the last 50 rounds. Lowry’s weak end to 2021 is offset by some better play over on the European Tour in 2022. He has finished top-25 in his last three starts and has made the cut at the Honda Classic in each of his last four appearances. Lowry’s biggest asset this week though may be lower ownership, as he comes in projected for under 10.0% roster on both major sites, making him a proper upper-tier pivot play in big fields.

The Stats:

  • Has made the cut at PGA National in all four of his previous appearances; has gained strokes around the green at PGA National in each of his last three appearances there
  • Ranks out well in long-term form; fifth in tee to green stats and sixth in around the green stats

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 7.9% | FanDuel: 7.8%

Low-Owned Daily Fantasy Golf GPP Flier

Russell Knox

While the projected ownership percentage on Russell Knox this week is a little higher than usually targeted for this section, he does stand out as a great play for big fields in PGA DFS. Knox has played PGA National plenty of times in the past and the fact he has missed the cut at this venue in four of the last five seasons should help rostership in big GPPs stay to a minimum as well. Knox may have been inconsistent at PGA National of late but he has also flashed great affinity for it at times as well. He finished runner-up at this event in 2014 (playoff loss) and third in 2015.

Knox has made four of five cuts this year and has gained +3.0 strokes or more against the field on Approach in each of his last three starts. His 7th place finish at the Sony Open also saw him gain strokes around the green and putting. Knox will have to replicate that greenside success for a big week at PGA National, but he has at least proven somewhat recently that it is possible. At the very least, the ball-striking should keep him relevant against this weak field and if the putter shows up, you will have a contender on your hands at likely less than 10% ownership levels.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 9.1%

Top Three Under 5% in DraftKings Fantasy Golf This Week

This section will target three players that should end up under or close to 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. These picks are boom/bust players with an almost 100% focus on the upside.

Matthias Schwab ($7,100)

This event gets thin very quickly in the bottom half of the field, so why not go with the highest available talent? Matthias Schwab has showcased the ability to produce high-end ball-striking weeks that makes him at least somewhat similar to last week’s winner Joaquin Niemann in that regard. Schwab produced a 62 at Pebble Beach in his last start and is worthy of being added to your player pool if multi-entering big GPPs.

Sung Kang ($6,600)

In his last start, Sung Kang gained over +4.0 strokes on Approach alone and grabbed his highest finish in over five starts with a 26th place finish at the Phoenix Open. The rest of Kang’s game had already been flowing quite well so the improved iron play could lead to more higher finishes soon. He has played PGA National plenty in past years and looks like a great target under $7,000.

Luke Donald ($6,400)

Savvy veterans have typically been able to hang at PGA National until quite late on Sunday and Luke Donald feels like a player who could help keep that trend going. The former number one player in the world has made just two of four cuts this season but has struck the ball well in all four of his 2022 starts. This is a venue he has played very well at over the years and even won the event way back in 2006.

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