DFS Golf Picks & Expert PGA Rankings This Week: Arnold Palmer Invitational

The first big PGA event of 2022 is only a week away, but before heading to TPC Sawgrass for The PLAYERS Championship, the tour makes a brief stop at one of its more iconic venues in Bay Hill for the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational. While it is been moved around the schedule a couple of times, the Arnold Palmer Invitational is an integral part of the Florida swing and gives players another chance to go chasing after the bigger money available at these invitational stops. The DFS golf contests this week have lost a few of of the world’s best golfers (Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, Collin Morikawa, to name a few), but there are a plethora of other interesting golfers around who would love to get 2022 started with a win, or just find some form before the year’s first big event. Even with the withdrawals of some of the best golfers, there is plenty of top-tier talent to choose from with our DFS Golf picks this week on DraftKings and FanDuel.

As for the venue, Bay Hill plays as a traditional par 72, with four par 5’s. The par-5 16th can be a huge swing hole down the stretch, and there have been many a big eagle putt holed there throughout the years. In terms of players you should be targeting, this venue is long but driving distance typically rates under the tour average. Greens-in-regulation percentages are also low, and the winners at Bay Hill tend to be up in strokes gained Approach stats and greens in regulation. Bay Hill is really more of an all-encompassing test, though, and last year’s winner DeChambeau gained over +1.0 strokes in all the major areas.

DFS Golf Rankings & Expert Picks This Week: Arnold Palmer Invitational

Bay Hill Stats and Info

Bay Hill typically presents players with lots of long approaches on long par 4’s and par 5’s. Shots over 200 yards are the most popular approach basket
The fairways are easy to hit, but driving distance is typically still 5 to 7 yards lower than the tour average due to the 70-plus bunkers and water in play on over half the holes
Six of the last seven winners of this event all had recorded a top-five finish at Bay Hill in a previous year before winning

Awesemo golf betting experts Ben Rasa and Eytan Shander will be coming to you every week on the OddsShopper YouTube Channel with the Putting for Dough golf betting show, where they give you their expert PGA picks and predictions for the week. This week, they are giving their free golf betting picks for the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Putting Splits

The greens at Bay Hill are TifEagle Bermuda and will be similar in style to the ones last week at PGA National. Here is a more general look at some of the best and worst Bermuda putters in the field, relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these in your fantasy golf picks; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.

Positive Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

Russell Henley: +16 strokes on Bermudagrass, -16 on all other surfaces
Kevin Kisner : +35 on Bermudagrass, +8 on all other surfaces
Scottie Scheffler : +15 on Bermudagrass, -11 on all other surfaces
*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost

Negative Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Adam Scott: +3 on Bermudagrass, +38 on all other surfaces
2. SungJae Im: -9 on Bermudagrass, +11 on all other surfaces
3. Jason Kokrak: +10 on Bermudagrass, +46 on all other surfaces

Latest PGA DFS Content

DFS Golf Picks & Fantasy Golf Rankings for DraftKings & FanDuel

Adam Scott: Grades: B, Values: C

The DFS Golf projections this week on Awesemo have a tight range among the top-10 players. There are two clear upper-tier targets in Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm but then a gap to the next tier. Adam Scott rolls in inside the top-eight in point projections but also stands out with the best PGA value score of any golfer above $9,000 this week on DraftKings. The price on Scott has not risen much after a solid start to the year, which saw him play the WM Phoenix Open for the first time in forever and post a solid fourth-place finish at one of his favorite stops in Riviera.

Scott rededicated himself to playing more on the PGA towards the end of last season and he has re-found some of that high-end ball-striking that has gotten him 14 PGA Tour wins. He has gained over +4.0 strokes on Approach in three of his last six starts and found far more consistency with the driver of late too, a club that was once the best weapon in his arsenal. Scott has never won at Bay Hill but has finished top-five at this event numerous times and certainly would like to take a title at Arnold Palmer’s event before he retires. It is a good time to back him in daily fantasy golf circles this week as his game is trending towards bigger things.

The Stats:

Ranks ninth in DraftKings points gained and 11th in proximity from 200+ yards in long term form
Has shown good upside with his approaches of late across the board, has now gained +1.0 strokes or more on Approach in five of his last seven PGA Tour starts

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 15.8% | FanDuel: 14.5%

Justin Rose: Grades: B, Values: A, B

A pair of established veterans will be the main targets this week, as 2013 US Open champion Justin Rose joins his major winning comrade as a standout play on Awesemo. Rose ranks just outside the top-10 in the Awesemo Model but comes in with easily the highest points projection of any player under $8,000 in salary. Rose has played exclusively on the PGA TOUR this year making three cuts in a row and showed some solid form at the Farmer Insurance Open, where he took a sixth-place finish and gained +5.4 strokes on Approach, his best week in that stat since the 2019 WGC St. Jude.

Like Scott, Rose has played Bay Hill numerous times and had numerous top-five finishes at this week’s event, but never won it. With his price still under $8,000 on DraftKings this week, there is little doubt that he stands out as a solid daily fantasy golf target and comes with palatable ownership levels on both sites, so he likely will not reach mega chalk status.

The Stats:

Has gained strokes on Approach at Bay Hill in seven of his last eight starts at this event; has made the cut in eight of his last 10-starts at this event as well
Has started to strike the ball more consistently of late and shown improved play off the tee; has gained strokes on Approach in three of his last four starts

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 13.9% | FanDuel: 9.1%

Low-Owned Daily Fantasy Golf GPP Flier

Keegan Bradley

If you are looking for a nice blend of course history and recent form to target in GPPs, then Keegan Bradley should be at the top of your lists. He is trending with less than 6% ownership levels on DraftKings at the moment according to the Awesemo PGA DFS Ownership Projections and comes into this week having made the cut in all four of his 2022 PGA TOUR starts. Bradley is still capable of punting his entire week with some sloppy putting or around the green catastrophe but has been striking it well of late. He has now gained over +1.0 strokes on Approach in each of those four 2022 starts.

Bradley also loves playing at Bay Hill and this season will incredibly mark his 11th year playing in the event. He has only missed the cut at Bay Hill once and has encouragingly gained strokes around the greens on Bay Hill in eight of his last nine trips to the event. If his putter finds a little positive momentum he will almost certainly push for a top-10 finish at one of his favorite venues.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 5.2%

Top Three Under 5% in DraftKings Fantasy Golf This Week

This section will target three players that should end up under or close to 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. These picks are boom/bust players with an almost 100% focus on the upside.

Rickie Fowler ($6,900)

Rickie Fowler likely is not going to win this week but he has started to show signs of progress with with two made cuts in a row now. A putter change helped him on the greens last week and he has been positive on Approach in three of his last four starts. He has always been a solid back in Florida and at a sub-$7,000 price, he has delved into solid GPP territory.

Sam Ryder ($6,700)

Sam Ryder has found some improving form this season. He has made three cuts in a row entering this week and short-term has shown a much-improved short-game, which has seen him gain strokes Around the Green now in five of his last six starts. Ryder finished 26th or better his last three times out.

Danny Willett ($6,400)

Danny Willett is coming off an interesting week at the Honda Classic. One bad round cratered his chances there but he still finished 48th and gained over +5.0 strokes Off the Tee and on Approach combined. He will be playing the Arnold Palmer for the third year in a row and has made the cut at this event the last two years.

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