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The Winning Element: PGA DFS Optimizer Picks & Projections for American Express DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

Jason Rouslin



All of the PGA DFS content and picks this week are geared toward providing information that will help with DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy golf and PGA odds and betting decisions in the best way possible. With the help of the Awesemo expert , this is the last of the week-long written PGA fantasy picks material for DraftKings and FanDuel at the 2022 American Express.

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PGA DFS Optimizer Picks & Projections | American Express

This column will include 6 to 12 players as part of the core, which earns my highest allocation on DFS and is matched with bets across the board. Two-thirds of my favorite trio of Jordan Spieth, Collin Morikawa and Patrick Cantlay are teeing it up around the world this week, with Cantlay teeing it up for the American Express. With superb form and good history here, he will earn one of my highest allocations this week.

PGA Weather Forecast

For the second straight week in Hawaii, the pros will have absolutely perfect conditions and little wind. Expect low scoring once again.

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Total expected player pool: 79

Expected number of lineups created: 450

American Express Fantasy Golf Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel

These golfers will have anywhere between 20% and 50% allocation.

Jon Rahm ($11,300 DraftKings/$12,100 FanDuel)

This week prices on both sites are underpriced based on the returns Rahm has provided recently. Ownership should be close to 50%, but it is trending around 30%. Rahm, Cantlay or both will start almost every lineup this week.

Matthew Wolff ($9,300 DraftKings/$11,200 FanDuel)

A unique swing that translates into great results makes Wolff an incredibly marketable and likable golfer. At times, however, fans forget that these professional athletes are still people, and while their talent level far exceeds the average person’s, their mental strength does not have the same heightened level. That got the better of him for much of the year last year and still is not quite back to normal. But, more recently, his cheery attitude has returned. When his head is in the game, Wolff has some of the highest upside on tour.

Abraham Ancer ($9,200 DraftKings/$11,100 FanDuel)

If the back nine on Friday had gone differently and got him into the weekend, Ancer’s price this week would have been at least $500 more than it is. So throw out the bad nine holes of putting, see that he gained just shy of two strokes tee to green in two days, add in lower ownership because of the missed cut, and it is good position for a bounce-back leverage spot this week. For the cherry on top, he has come in a second and fifth in the last two years here.

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Patrick Reed ($8,800 DraftKings/$10,800 FanDuel)

After a strong of solid events since becoming fully healthy, Reed is good value relative to his long-term form compared to the strength of this field, especially on DraftKings. He is a former winner here, although the most recent results are not quite as good and include a few missed cuts. Still, there is a lot to work on off the tee. Using the new PXG driver, his driving distance was in the bottom five of the field, averaging less than 297 yards per drive. But if he keeps it in the fairway this week (or close to it), he has the short game to overcome the lack of distance, especially at these courses.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,700 DraftKings/$9,900 FanDuel)

Bezuidenhout was a great value last week, scoring north of 95 points at a $7800 salary, but now he gets a big bump in price with his form returning. His upside and consistency have been there for quite some time, and his ball striking looks to be at his high after gaining almost five strokes last week. If that remains and the putter gets hot this week, he should find himself on the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday.

Harold Varner III ($7,600 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel)

The last time Varner played was at the Hewlett Packard Open, withdrawing on the 14th hole. Not much was made about it, other than he was out of the tournament. His new son, Liam, was born in October, so back then he was likely somewhere in the neighborhood of 6 to 8 weeks old. Now a few months removed from that and adjusting to life as a first-time father, Varner gets his 2022 kicked off in Palm Springs, where he has one top-20 in his past. His self-confidence is very high, and he feels more ready to win than ever.

Doug Ghim ($7,500 DraftKings/$8,700 FanDuel)

Ghim’s early top-five here last year propelled him to his best season on tour, easily finishing inside the top 125 in the FedEx Cup standings. He had a few other solid starts throughout the Florida swing as well, but not quite enough to win an event. Now with that experience under his belt, and making five of six cuts to start the season, Ghim should use the confidence of his top-five here last year and a consistent start to the year to a big finish this week. His ownership is mild as well, paired up near the popular Lucas Glover this week.

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Fantasy Golf Picks: $7,000 or less

While none of these golfers are strong enough to earn 20% allocation, they are the four highest-owned golfers in my player pool under $7,000 this week.

Adam Svensson ($7,000 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel)

A tie for seventh is just the start of good play from Svensson, as he finds himself in a good position for his second go-around on the PGA Tour. He had a good start here during his first stint on tour, coming in 18th. He will need to clean up his off-tee game, losing over a stroke and a half last week, but that should be easier to improve at these courses. As long as his iron game stays hot and the putter remains in good form, he should pay off his salaries across the sites this week.

Davis Riley ($6,800 DraftKings /$7,500 FanDuel)

At first Sahith Theegala filled this spot, but Riley’s ball striking was much better last week, and his putter was just as good as Theegala’s. His recent form also has shown much more upside than that of Theegala, and on top of all that he has the highest projection of all golfers priced under $7,000 this week.

Joseph Bramlett ($6,500 DraftKings/ $7,400 FanDuel)

On the complete flipside of Theegala, Bramlett gained over seven strokes ball striking last week while losing three strokes with his short game. But for that type of ball striking, he is hard to pass up in this type of format. He is missed the cut in each of his two starts here.

J.T. Poston ($6,400 DraftKings/ $7,400 FanDuel)

Usually aligning with Theegala in terms of his strokes gained, Poston showed he has been working on his ball striking over the break, gaining three strokes ball striking last week in Hawaii. If he has a baseline week with his short game, he will wind up in the top 20. That seems like a good bet to return this week, especially at a course where he has a top-10.

Latest PGA DFS Content

PGA DFS Chalk Zone (Projected for 10%+ ownership)

E = Equal-Weight to projected ownership

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U = Underweight to projected ownership

O = Overweight to projected ownership

  1. Scottie Scheffler (E)
  2. Tony Finau (O)
  3. Sungjae Im (U)
  4. Talor Gooch (U)
  5. Corey Conners (U)
  6. Russell Henley (U)
  7. Justin Rose (E)
  8. Rickie Fowler (E)
  9. Si Woo Kim (O)
  10. Luke List (U)
  11. Adam Hadwin (E to O)
  12. Lucas Glover (E)
  13. K.H. Lee (U)
  14. Taylor Moore (E to U)
  15. Hayden Buckley (E To O)
  16. Russell Knox (U)

Fringe PGA DFS Picks (12-17% of Lineups)

  1. Seamus Power
  2. Will Zalatoris
  3. Cameron Tringale
  4. Alex Noren
  5. Jhonattan Vegas
  6. Michael Thompson
  7. Sahith Theegala

Alternates (6-11% of Lineups)

  1. Chris Kirk
  2. Brendon Todd
  3. Emiliano Grillo
  4. Adam Long
  5. Sebastian Munoz
  6. Jason Day
  7. Patton Kizzire
  8. Denny McCarthy
  9. Patrick Rodgers
  10. Alex Smalley
  11. Troy Merritt
  12. Kramer Hickock
  13. Andrew Landry
  14. Tom Hoge
  15. Aaron Rai
  16. Nick Hardy
  17. Dylan Wu
  18. Brandt Snedeker
  19. Davis Riley
  20. Harry Higgs
  21. Cameron Young
  22. Tyler McCumber
  23. Andrew Novak
  24. Max McGreevy
  25. Trey Mullinax

Holes in One (1-5% of Lineups)

  1. Charles Howell III
  2. Cameron Champ
  3. Brian Harman
  4. Chez Reavie
  5. Lanto Griffin
  6. Phil Mickelson
  7. Andrew Putnam
  8. Vincent Whaley
  9. Taylor Pendrith
  10. Francesco Molinari
  11. Zach Johnson
  12. Henrik Norlander
  13. Doc Redman
  14. Brandon Wu
  15. John Pak
  16. Kevin Chappell
  17. Austin Smotherman
  18. Paul Barjon
  19. James Du Preez

Looking for value under $7,000 this week? From the above two lists, Davis Riley has the most projected points: 78.1. View the full field here.

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The PGA DFS projections for DraftKings, the DraftKings PGA DFS showdown projections and the DFS PGA ownership projections for DraftKings are made and used by Alex Baker, the No. 1 DFS player in the world. PGA DFS rankings for today will be posted at least a day in advance of any tournament. Looking for more PGA DFS picks for Yahoo! and DFS PGA Yahoo! picks?

Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].

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