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The Winning Element: PGA DFS Optimizer Picks & Projections for The Farmers Insurance Open DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

Jason Rouslin



All of the PGA DFS content and picks this week are geared toward providing information that will help with DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy golf and PGA odds and betting decisions in the best way possible. With the help of the Awesemo expert , this is the last of the week-long written PGA fantasy picks material for DraftKings and FanDuel at the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open.

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PGA DFS Picks & Projections | Farmers Insurance Open

This column will include 6 to 12 players as part of the core, which earns my highest allocation on DFS and is matched with bets across the board. Only one-third of my favorite trio of Jordan Spieth, Collin Morikawa and Patrick Cantlay is teeing it up around the world this week, with Spieth teeing it up for the Farmers Insurance. He has poor form here at this course and has not looked close to peak in his two early-season appearances, leading to low ownership. My standard 20% allocation should get close to 3x this week on the field.

PGA Weather Forecast

Colder temperatures can certainly play a factor, and that will be the only actual elements golfers face. Friday morning there is a spot of wind coming through, with gusts up to the low 20s mph , but it is expected to clear for the most part in the afternoon. With 80 or so golfers on each course, using split tees, tee times are only separated by at most two hours, so there is no real advantage, even with the stronger winds expected Friday morning.

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Total expected player pool: 78

Expected number of lineups created: 450

Farmers Insurance Open Fantasy Golf Picks

These golfers will have anywhere between 20% and 50% allocation.

Jon Rahm ($11,300 DraftKings/$12,200 FanDuel)

Rahm and Cantlay were the clear, obvious favorites last week, leading to very high ownership among them. But this week, with a much deeper field, Rahm’s ownership stays mild — somewhere in the 15-20% range. His ball striking looked all right last week, but he could not get the putter rolling. He should not have to make as many putts to win this week.

Xander Schauffele ($10,100 DraftKings/$11,900 FanDuel)

The big debate for me this week is the $800 difference between Schauffele and Justin Thomas. If the salary is there, Thomas is the clear favorite in the matchup, but if the salary is needed, Schauffele presents as a fine option as well. His course form has gotten better over the last few starts close to his home, as the first four did not go well, missing three of four cuts. He has not had an official PGA Tour win in over two years now, but he does have the win at the Olympics and plenty of other high-quality finishes, including seven top-10s last year.

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Sam Burns ($9,700 DraftKings/$11,200 FanDuel)

Some may see the price and be a bit sticker shocked, but Burns has earned it. He has not missed a cut since the U.S. Open, and since then (13 starts) his worst finish is 76th. However, he finished top 20 in 11 of the other 12 starts. It has brought him all the way up to 11th in the world and is set to break into the top 10 with a good start here this week. In MME GPPs settings this week, however, Bryson DeChambeau is trending lower on the ownership scale, so I will lean to DeChambeau over Burns for the leverage play in those contests. But for the main lineup, Burns get the spot next to Rahm this week.

Will Zalatoris ($9,200 DraftKings/$10,600 FanDuel)

At the British Open last year, Zalatoris drove it into the hay, tried to hit out of it and almost broke his back. However, a three-week break was all he needed, as he had a nice run from the FedEx St. Jude through the Sanderson Farms where he finished in the top 30 four straight events and had one top-10. After that he had a bit of a rusty spot, with two missed cuts in his next three events. Things were trending in the wrong direction. But a top-six last week and a tie for seventh here last year have things moving back in the right direction for this elite ball striker. High ownership is not there yet either, and Zalatoris happens to make a great pairing with Spieth as the first two guys in the lineup.

Joaquin Niemann ($7,700 DraftKings/$10,000)

Niemann is the first of many in this price range that are great values on my board, the Awesemo projections or both. For Niemann, it was a rough end to his season after the top five at the OHL Mayakoba, as he missed the cut at the Hewlett Packard Open and the RSM Classic. He has not played since then, forgoing the trips to Hawaii and La Quinta, instead starting his season here at the Farmers Insurance Open. That is inevitably why his salary is down at this level, even though his history here is not the greatest. He has made the cut each time but came in 49th and 72nd in those. This week it is more about the value than his upside.

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Luke List ($7,600 DraftKings/$9,100)

List has had a solid start to the season, as he has come in the top 22 in each of the last three events. He also adds in a top 10 at the ZOZO Championship earlier this season, showing consistency in his form. In the weeks where he does not make any putts in the first two rounds, he becomes a bit of a cut liability, but with four straight made cuts at this event, his chances to play all four rounds this week are high. He also differs a bit in the rankings in terms of projected points, as there are eight golfers outside of the ones on this list that project better this week based on the Awesemo projections.

Aaron Wise ($7,500 DraftKings/$9,400 FanDuel)

Davis is the second of three golfers in this range that rank inside the top five in projected points for golfers priced under $8,000, after Niemann. Each of them has shown ability beyond their salaries this week but has no recent form to pull from. So if there is little to no rust in their games, the values will be there in a hurry. Even just making it to the weekend with their scoring ability will be a positive ROI at these salaries.

Brandt Snedeker ($7,400 DraftKings/$8,900 FanDuel)

Another slight variation from the Awesemo PGA DFS Projections this week, Snedeker is quite a ways down the list, with only 55 projected points this week. The difference comes down to a golfer regaining old form that projections are not noticing yet. Going back 24 months ago, Snedeker came in a tie for third here at this event and was ranked 43rd in the world. Since then, incredibly, he has not recorded a single top-10, dropping all the way to 186th in the world, his worst since 2006. While the 41-year-old certainly is not getting any younger, his problems last year centered around his off-tee game. While he was never long, he lost the ability to find the fairway. That has changed this year, as he has hit all 14 fairways on Sunday after hitting around 80% on Saturday at the PGA West Course. Add that to a 75% accuracy rate at the Sony Open, and things appear to be moving in the right direction. So while he may not be back to OWGR top 50 form yet, he certainly knows this golf course better than anyone in the field. That matched with good form and confidence coming off his best performances in six months should yield good results this week.

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Cameron Davis ($7,300 DraftKings $9,200)

The last of the three highly projected golfers, Davis has had a great start to the calendar year after a rough patch to end last season. He finished top 10 out on Maui, followed by a 27th at the Sony Open, which included a poor Sunday. Davis has regained some of that top-end form of last year, which ended ultimately with his first PGA Tour victory. He has enjoyed mild success here, even when he was not playing his best, making the cut all four times, but he has no finish better than 32nd. Given his newfound form and confidence and comfort with this course, a top-20 or better should be in the cards this week.

Fantasy Golf Picks: $7,000 or less

While none of these golfers are strong enough to earn 20% allocation, they are the four highest-owned golfers in my player pool under $7,000 this week.

Sahith Theegala ($6,500 DraftKings/$7,900 FanDuel)

There are certainly some question marks about his game, but Sahith has proven to be ready for the PGA Tour. From Orange, Calif., Theegala has found mild success early in this season, with one top-10 and five other made cuts against just two missed cuts. One of the things that still needs to be learned about him is, does he like low-scoring events like last week’s where he can shoot 10 under in one round and not worry about his driving accuracy problem? Or does he prefer tournaments like this one where short game and distance off the tee are a great combination? That seems to be his profile in his brief stint on the PGA Tour, so it is worth the gamble to find out.

J.T. Poston ($6,400 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel)

Similar to Theegala, Poston struggles at times to hit the fairway. But Poston has been showing some great signs over the last few weeks, making each of the two cuts while gaining strokes off the tee in all six of his measured starts. That is a trend, maybe not so much one that will stick around, but he also has one of the best short games on tour. Add that all in with three straight made cuts at this event, and his chances seem relatively high to play the weekend. That is what is needed at this salary.

Latest PGA DFS Content

PGA DFS Chalk Zone (Projected for 10%+ ownership)

E = Equal-Weight to projected ownership

U = Underweight to projected ownership

O = Overweight to projected ownership

  1. Hideki Matsuyama (E to U)
  2. Daniel Berger (U)
  3. Bryson DeChambeau (E to O)
  4. Scottie Scheffler (E)
  5. Sungjae Im (E)
  6. Tony Finau (E)
  7. Marc Leishman (E)
  8. Corey Conners (E)
  9. Patrick Reed (E)
  10. Maverick McNealy (E to U)
  11. Ryan Palmer (E)
  12. Justin Rose (U)
  13. Billy Horschel (E)
  14. Si Woo Kim (U)
  15. Lanto Griffin (U)
  16. Mackenzie Hughes (E to O)
  17. Luke List (E)
  18. Tom Hoge (U)

Fringe PGA DFS Picks (12-17% of Lineups)

  1. Dustin Johnson
  2. Brooks Koepka
  3. Talor Gooch
  4. Max Homa
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
  6. Keegan Bradley
  7. Francesco Molinari
  8. Jason Day
  9. Alex Noren
  10. Keith Mitchell
  11. Mito Pereira
  12. Wyndham Clark
  13. Doug Ghim
  14. Joseph Bramlett
  15. Harry Higgs

Alternates (6-11% of Lineups)

  1. Matthew Wolff
  2. Jhonattan Vegas
  3. Gary Woodland
  4. Charley Hoffman
  5. Adam Svensson
  6. Joel Dahmen
  7. Taylor Moore
  8. Kyle Stanley
  9. Cameron Young

Holes in One (1-5% of Lineups)

  1. Aaron Rai
  2. Cameron Champ
  3. Rickie Fowler
  4. Hayden Buckley
  5. Greyson Sigg
  6. Nick Hardy
  7. C.T. Pan
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Scott Stallings
  10. Rory Sabbatini
  11. Patrick Rodgers
  12. Nick Watney
  13. Sepp Straka
  14. John Huh
  15. Kevin Streelman
  16. Tyler McCumber
  17. Henrik Norlander
  18. Jason Dufner
  19. Emiliano Grillo
  20. Doc Redman
  21. Trey Mullinax
  22. Kevin Tway

Looking for value under $7,000 this week? From the above two lists, Emiliano Grillo has the most projected points: 57.2. View the full field here.

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The PGA DFS projections for Yahoo!, the DraftKings DFS PGA showdown projections and the DFS PGA ownership projections for this week are made and used by Alex Baker, the No. 1 DFS player in the world. Looking for more DFS PGA stats and DFS PGA picks? PGA DFS rankings for FanDuel will be posted at least a day in advance of any tournament.

Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].

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