PGA DFS Picks: Against the Grain for the Sentry Tournament of Champions (FREE)

Whether it’s your first time reading or you’re a seasoned vet, this article covers GPP PGA DFS picks for fantasy golf. It also breaks the field down into four price categories for FanDuel, DraftKings and Yahoo PGA DFS. The article is meant to be a guiding tool in creating variance in your lineups, which in turn, hopefully, can create an edge against the field.

Winning a GPP of any size is a difficult task, especially ones with 40,000-plus entries. Each of my big wins has come by going against the grain with some players and pairing them with the right chalk. Now, these picks are meant only for game theory plays and may not ultimately be in my player pool.

Don’t forget to check out the PGA DFS Strategy Show with Timothy Frank and Ben Rasa. Come back tonight at 8:30 p.m. EST for our Live before lock show where I drag Ben in for another hour of chatting about all the current week’s hot topics and plays!

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Last Week Recap

A new season is dawned as we recap each week after it happens. See you next week at the Sony Open.

Fantasy Golf Player focus this week:

This week, since we only have 34 players in the field, I’m going to break them into the top, 10 projected middle 10 and bottom 14. This is in place of my traditional approach breaking the players into four pricing sections, which I’ll go back to next week. I’ll give my commentary on each section, and then my top Against the Grain pick at the end.

Top 10 Projected Golfers:

 

Commentary

A top-heavy bomber’s paradise no-cut event will certainly concentrate ownership at the top. Rickie Fowler as the second option in people’s lineup or first paired with Gary Woodland will likely drive ownership up to one of the highest owned. The two highest-priced golfers, Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas, should get around 35%. It’s hard to fit them both in there and some gamers will just fade them. A 70% combined ownership seems likely.

One of the more interesting talking points this week is Dustin Johnson whom I highlighted as being a great ‘course fit’ earlier today. I think because of his salary, he will end up being the second golfer in a lineup paired with Rahm or Thomas. Gamers will have a hard time passing up on his dominance here in Maui. Xander Schauffele will still get plenty of attention, having played well over the fall circuit and Presidents cup. The top 10 is rounded out with Joaquin Niemann, someone gamers will likely trust over Cameron Champ this week. Niemann is joined by Paul Casey and Chez Reavie to round out my projected top-10 owned this week.

Budding superstar Collin Morikawa is likely done getting passed over, as he comes into the event with some of the lowest odds to win and a reasonable salary. That is normally a recipe for extreme chalk. I suspect the higher dollar you go, the more ownership he gets.

Middle 10 Projected PGA DFS Golfers:

Commentary

Corey Conner versus Reavie will be one of the more interesting decisions of the week, as I have them only separated by about 2% ownership. The former of the two checks in right around 20%, along with Patrick Reed and Kevin Kisner. Reed gets lost a bit as Rahm/Thomas and Johnson/Fowler take up the first couple of spots on the lineup, making it difficult to fit another $9,000 salary. The name of Matt Kuchar will drive his ownership near 20% this week, while Dylan Fritelli and J.T. Poston come in just north of 15%.

I skipped over Patrick Cantlay to talk about him more in-depth. I think he plays a pivotal role this week. His only showing here in Maui back in 2018 resulted in a lackluster 15th-place finish. I’m of the belief that gamers will favor the other top golfers above and directly below him. If the combined ownership is somewhere in the 200% range for those six golfers priced around him, it’s going to be hard to get Cantlay in as the third golfer, thus the call for lower ownership.

Brendan Todd is another great talking point this week, as the reemergence has seemingly come out of nowhere. I suspect that not everyone is ready to trust it, and thus the mid-level ownership sticks with him. He should come in around 15%. Two bombers are left: Matthew Wolff and Keith Mitchell both making their first trip out to Maui, which I think will lower their ownership, even with a rather good course fit.

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Bottom 14 Projected PGA DFS Golfers:

PGA DFS Commentary:

Still, plenty of ownership to go around these 14 golfers. I’m sure a heavy focus will be placed on that high-$6,000, low-%7,000 range. Adam Long has been a surprise of late, whereas Sebastian Munoz‘s odds to win are much better than those around. This likely pushes his ownership closer to 20%. Lanto Griffin has certainly come back down to earth after win in Houston with a missed cut and a last-place finish in his two subsequent starts. Even with that, I suspect more gamers will trust him over the likes of Sung Kang golf swing video extraordinaire Max Homa. 

Champ is the lowest projected golfer above $8,000, but even still, he should earn around 15%. He finished 11th here last year riding a hot putter over the first few days. As with Kuchar, the name of Graeme McDowell and his cheap price will likely earn him north of 10% this week.

That leaves us with six other golfers, seven including Homa, that will be under 10% owned. Ryan Palmer is making his first trip back but is priced on the higher side at $7,200. Kevin Na also seems overpriced, and he withdrew from this event last year.

That leaves us only J.B Holmes, Tyler Duncan, Martin Trainer and Jim Herman. While one of these four is likely to be a difference-maker in terms of DFS results, they are the last four I’d be interested to put into a lineup.

Top PGA DFS ATG Plays

This tournament last year had well over 100% for the lineups’ total ownership, showing us we don’t have to go that against the grain to win. So I’ll start with Cantlay as the lowest-owned stud and Champ as the lowest-owned mid-level play. Lastly, if I had to pick from the lowest-owned four it would be Martin Trainer. He ranked inside the top 25 in driving distance on tour last season.

Until next time

Cheers,

Jason

Author
Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].

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