Whether it’s your first time reading or you’re a seasoned vet, this article covers GPP Players Championship picks for PGA DFS. It also breaks the field down into four price categories for FanDuel, DraftKings and Yahoo. The article is meant to be a guiding tool in creating variance in your lineups, which in turn, hopefully, can create an edge against the field.
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Winning a GPP of any size is a difficult task, especially ones with 40,000-plus entries. Each of my big wins has come by going against the grain with some players and pairing them with the right chalk.
Last Week Recap
Overall, it was a good week projected ownership for both parties, as I eked out again against the Awesemo guys. In terms of the article, no real starts were mentioned, other than Matt Fitzpatrick.
Top-10 Projected Golfers by Awesemo.com This Week
For the full list, click here.
PGA DFS Player Focus This Week
This week features 144 players with the top 65 and ties making the cut.
$10,000 and Above
There is quite a disparity between the top and bottom ends of the ownership range just out of these five guys. Rory McIlroy will undoubtedly get well over 20% this week, and Jon Rahm won’t be too far behind. It is quite surprising, however, to see Justin Thomas come in close to 10%. Sure, he’s missed a cut in the last 10 weeks, but he also has four top-15s, including a win in that same time frame. Books Kopeka and Dustin Johnson, on the other hand, are not in good form, especially Koepka. With that, low ownership is bound to happen, providing some against-the-game plays here this week.
Top Against the Grain Plays
I’ll take Thomas over either of the other two bolded golfers that will be lowly owned every time.
Patrick Cantlay returns for the first time in a month after getting surgery to help repair his deviated septum. The average recovery time for this type of surgery is about a month, maybe longer, and he’s been out for about a month now. That seems to be lowering his ownership from the low 20s to the mid-teens, about a 5% reduction. Five golfers are expected to be chalky: Webb Simpson, Bryson DeChambeau, Tommy Fleetwood, Hideki Matsuyama and Sungjae Im. Still, there is plenty of room to give, as Gary Woodland, Patrick Reed and Xander Schauffele should be about 15% owned.
It is inevitable, though, that it will create plenty of golfers that will be under or right at 10%:
- Tony Finau
- Paul Casey
- Justin Rose
- Jason Day
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Sergio Garcia
- Adam Scott
- Rickie Fowler
Top Against-the-Grain Plays
All of those names look good for one reason or another. Even Schauffele at 15% seems appetizing. In my total balanced builds where I stack three or four from this price range, I’ll try and make one of the guys on the above bulleted list part of the lineup.
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The strongest field in all of golf will always present some underpricings, as DraftKings tries to shift through who gamers will focus on. The most underpriced golfer of this week is Collin Morikawa. This is the first time he’s been below $8,000 in quite awhile, and with that will come 20% ownership or more. Tyrrell Hatton — coming off the biggest win of his career — and Marc Leishman both will also get around 20%. Matthew Fitzpatrick and Matt Kuchar will be owned right around 15%. Then we dip into the low $7,000s and find some favorites, Abraham Ancer and Daniel Berger, who will be the lower-priced chalk, coming in at around 15% as well.
After them, though, we should have a bit of a drop-off, with most of the remaining golfers coming at or below 10%. A couple of guys in that range are:
- Scottie Scheffler
- Billy Horschel
- Byeong Hun An
- Victor Perez
- Henrik Stenson
That will leave many golfers in this range under 5%, including:
- Jordan Spieth
- Ian Poulter
- Adam Hadwin
- Viktor Hovland
- Shane Lowry
- Lanto Griffin
- Kevin Kisner
Top Against-the-Grain Plays
Spieth is the direct pivot off of a chalky Morikawa, but let’s be completely honest here; who wants to roster Spieth right now? Look instead to Scheffler or Poulter.
It is pretty easy to tell where ownership is going to go this week with Max Homa and Joel Dahmen getting most of the attention down here at these prices. Ryan Palmer will also get some looks, but after him, you will be hard-pressed to find any golfers that will be more than 5% owned. A few that have piqued my interest are Sung Kang, Talor Gooch, Sebastian Munoz, Jimmy Walker and Jhonattan Vegas.
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