This column is a quick-hitter article to give you the stats you need to make informed PGA DFS picks for your DraftKings + FanDuel daily fantasy lineups and give you a couple of recommendations for The Memorial. On a typical showdown contest, DraftKings will offer upwards of $50,000 to first for rounds 2 and 3 showdown, and sometimes up to $100,000 for the final round contests. They also provide weekend-long contests that have been offering $25,000 to first for most weekends. Lastly, FanDuel has also tried to get into the weekend-long and final round contests, offering $10,000 and $5,000 to first.
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Previous Round Commentary
Hot temps throughout the day did exactly what I suspected would happen, for the most part, flip the leaderboard. Brendon Todd was the big mover on the day, shooting 68, and went from a T for 63rd to inside the top 20. Crazy. Five scores of 79 and one of 81 showed just how tough a golf course can be when green speeds are incredibly fast. There wasn’t much wind today, but there will be tomorrow.
The Expected Weather for Tomorrow’s Round
Jon Rahm maybe have a four-shot lead, but there’s still plenty to play for. Especially given the fact that there are winds projected to be sustained into the high teens and low 20s from three o’clock on. We saw how quickly a three-shot lead evaporated today. In a span of six holes, Tony Finau went from up three to down four, just like that. No lead is safe with these conditions, whether it be PGA DFS or the PGA Tour.
Previous Round Stat Review
With little to no wind to speak of today, there were still no bogey-free rounds on the golf course. Many golfers suggested this played very much like a U.S. Open, and with the strength of field as strong as it was, it certainly feels that way. To bad for Jon Rahm, this isn’t being classified as such. Still, birdies were out there if one could get hot with the putter. Here’s the review thru three rounds.
BOB Leaders Through Round 3
- Tony Finau (18)
- Jon Rahm, Danny Willett, Matt Wallace, (16)
- Matthew Wolff, Viktor Hovland (15)
Strokes Gained Ball Striking vs. Putting
Bubba Watson had another superb day ball striking, and not so great day putting, bringing his average to a 4.26 differential, to lead the way in this stat. Tyler Duncan is only .04 behind, while Xander Schauffele, Sebastian Munoz, & Collin Morikawa aren’t too far back, all gaining at least three more strokes ball-striking than with their putting.
PGA DFS Slate Preview:
Slate Lock Time
- DraftKings is really upping their game this week offering a 200K to first place with 600K GTd for the final round showdown.
- FanDuel puts up something, at least, giving us a 10K to first contest.
PGA DFS Slate Strategy:
Let’s first review something that’s vital. Final Round Showdown contests award finishing points. Here’s the breakdown:
So, as you can see, coming in the top 10 tomorrow is worth an additional birdie, on a sliding scale up to first, where it’s almost three birdies. Now, with the wind expected to be as high as it is tomorrow, making birdies won’t come easy. There are five holes this week playing under par, thus obviously, five quality scoring opportunities that golfers must capitalize on. This actually doesn’t include the par-four 14th, which they played as a drivable par 4 today, but has danger lurking all-around.
So, five quality chances. One might think the best in the world make three-maybe four birdies on these holes on a good day, with little to no wind conditions. Since we have wind problems tomorrow and fast greens speeds, I suspect 2/5 would be prudent to get. The average score today was close to 74, which I think could be higher than tomorrow. If you are under par for the tournament, it may end up getting you a top 10 this week.
If we believe that to be true, take today’s round low of 68 as a basis, which I think would be extremely hard to do given the projected conditions, that would mean the +3s could get into the top 10 with a 68 tomorrow. Lastly, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t play Joel Dahmen, but just know that because he’s so far back, you have very little chance to pick up these “bonus points,” so now he’s just gotta make more birdies than the other guy.
Top 10 Breakdown & Pick
Danny Willett makes it back to back starts that he’s played well, seeking his second straight top 5 finish. Even with the problematic conditions today he managed a two under 70. Henrik Norlander, Patrick Rodgers, Matt Wallace, & Mackenzie Hughes are a few of the other surprises in the top 10 heading into Sunday, all seeking their best finish in some time. Well, outside of Hughes, that is who has a couple of good finishes on the year. Then the stars come, Patrick Cantlay, Jon Rahm, & Tony Finau will be a popular stack tomorrow. Throw in some Ryan Palmer, and you’ve got a big chance for it to be duplicated.
Chez Reavie ($7,800)
16 real quality holes for Reavie, before going bogey-double to finish his round, something I’m sure that’ll sting a bit. Still, I’ve written about him a couple of times this week, and one of my statements has always been that when he’s on, you ride the rave. He managed the wind in round one and shot under-par, so maybe these types of conditions suit him. He did come in the top 5 at the U.S. Open last year.
Stud or Value Pick Outside of Top 10
Brendon Todd ($6,600)
If the wind hurts a certain golfer the most, it’s not those that already hit much shorter than everyone else. They just don’t’ create as much spin. Todd found his approach game today and loved the fast greens, sinking putts from all over. His day tieing low vaulted him up the leaderboard, as he continues his remarkable comeback season. Another good round and another top 10 is on the horizon for him.
Sneaky Pick Outside of Top 10
Zach Johnson ($6,800)
If there’s anyone that can navigate the wind, it’s this guy. Winner of The Open Championship, Johnson is a Wiley veteran that should navigate these harsh conditions, He dug himself a hole with the 75 today, and sits at +5 for the week, so even a 68 won’t get him inside the top 10. So, with that being said, he’s not a huge target for me, but he’s one that if I wanted to go that far down the leaderboard to play the morning wave angle, he’s who I’ll I take.
Matthew Wolff ($6,700)
Si Woo Kim ($6,200)
Patrick Reed ($8,900)
Billy Horschel ($7,800)
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