PGA DFS Picks: Top 3 SuperDraft Picks | BMW Championship | Tony Finau + Hideki Matsuyama

Each week we’re diving into PGA DFS analysis and giving you some of the top PGA DFS picks for SuperDraft with the help of the world’s No. 1 DFS player, Alex “Awesemo” Baker, and his SuperDraft Projections (PREMIUM). Let’s do a quick recap of last week’s first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

It’s official: Dustin Johnson is good again. All the major sport and fantasy outlets are pumping him now. Only thing is he was never bad. Johnson struck the ball well and put four of the best rounds of golf together we’ve seen in years, demolishing the field by 11 strokes. As a noted Johnson backer, I felt it my responsibility to note he was never not a top-10 golfer in the world. He proved it yet again last weekend.

The field this week is trimmed down to the top 70 golfers in the FedEx Cup points standings. A lot of big names and strong players will be around, so building lineups might actually be tougher with fewer players in the player pool. The BMW Championship is played at Olympia Fields just outside of Chicago. It’s a 7,333-yard, Par-70 track, and this is its first PGA Tour event in nearly 20 years (2003).

We’re going with a bit of a different formula this week, baking in PGA odds but still using Awesemo’s projections as the baseline. Here’s a quick glance behind the curtain at three of Awesemo’s best PGA picks to plug into your SuperDraft lineups for this week’s 2020 BMW Championship.


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SuperDraft PGA DFS Picks | 2020 BMW Championship

1) Harris English (1.15x multiplier)

The career 180 Harris English has done in 2020 has been stunning. Generally, I don’t believe in drastic changes late in player’s career, but I’m buying this one. If 2020 has taught us anything, it’s that legitimately anything can happen at any time.

English is currently No. 6 in the FedEx Cup points standings, coming off a 19th at the PGA and a second-place finish at Northern Trust. In his run at the PGA Championship, he finished inside the top 20 in strokes gained total (1.779). Unsurprisingly, he was No. 2 in the field at Northern Trust — behind Dustin Johnson, of course — with 3.132 strokes gained.

What stands out to me most about English is that his big finishes haven’t been due to just going nuclear with the putter. He gained just over a half stroke at both the PGA Championship and Northern Trust with the flat stick. His approach game looked strong last week at TPC Boston. With many par 4’s of 450-500 in line this week, his top-10 standing in par 4 scoring on holes 450-500 yards sets up well.

2) Tony Finau (1.10x multiplier)

Is Tony Finau actually going to win a tournament? That’s a legitimate question to ask. However, you don’t always need the winner — though it’s nice to get — in your lineup to be atop the PGA DFS leaderboard. Finau has shown a propensity to fade in the big moments, but some narratives can be overblown. It feels like the hate on Finau has finally gone a bit too far, especially after a rough finish last week.

One of the best ways to find a bounce-back play in PGA DFS is to see who was let down by the putter the previous week. With putting being a finicky stat, it’s good strategy to target poor putters from a week ago. Most — not all — putting statistics find level water. Finau fits that mold. He lost nearly four strokes on the green through two rounds.

What we do know about Finau is that he is consistently one of the best iron players around. He’s inside the top 20 on Tour this season in strokes gained on approach (+.571). At the Northern Trust alone, he gained 2.7 strokes off the tee and on approaches in his second round. Finau seems to always give himself opportunities to score, and with his No. 1 standing in par 4 efficiency from 450-500, I really like him this week at Olympia Fields.


Related PGA DFS Content


3) Hideki Matsuyama (1.15x multiplier)

Many around the PGA DFS landscape know the upside Matsuyama presents, it just never seems to come together all at once. He’s a precision iron player, and when he’s on, he can pin-stalk better than just about anyone in the world. He’s No. 4 in strokes gained approach on Tour this year and has never been lower than ninth since 2014.

Last week, he looked like the Mastuayam we’re used to seeing, gaining 0.7 strokes on approach, rather than the -0.2 we saw at the PGA a few weeks back. It’s a good sign to see him start dialing it in with the irons again. What might be the most encouraging trend for Matsuyama is that he’s actually gained strokes putting in his last two events. At the PGA Championship (+0.35) and Northern Trust (+0.67) combined, he gained more than a full stroke putting — an area he usually struggles.

There are a lot of long iron shots to be played into the greens this week, including a pair of long par 3’s of 215 yards and longer. Since returning from hiatus, Matsuyama is one of the best in proximity on 200-plus yards — along with Harris English. It seems he might be rounding into overall form at just the right time, so firing up Matsuyama this week could pay off big.

SuperDraft PGA DFS Picks Honorable Mentions

  • Scottie Scheffler (1.15x multiplier)
  • Daniel Berger (1.10x multiplier)
  • Patrick Cantlay (1.10x multiplier)
  • Russel Henley (1.25x multiplier)

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Author
I'm a wannabe athlete whose athletic career ended after a long tenure riding the bench through JV baseball. The fantasy sports and sports betting degen side of me blossomed at age 12 when I found fantasy baseball and football, and led to a 12-year submergence into the poker scene -- I started playing "secret" cash games in my parents' basements by age 14. Luckily, I've finally found what I love to do -- write about "fake sports," which my girlfriend refers to it as, though it only took me until age 30. If you decide you like the words I write and follow me on Twitter (@nd_joyce), I apologize in advance for the copious amounts of dog photos you will see.

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