The Approach: PGA DFS Picks Based off Awesemo’s Rankings for the PGA Championship

The 2020 PGA Championship will take place at TPC Harding Park in San Francisco, a venue that hasn’t been seen on Tour since the 2015 WGC-Matchplay event in 2015, an event won by Rory McIlroy. The venue will play as a par 70 this year (it played as a par 71 in 2015) at around 7,234 yards with pure bentgrass greens that could also have a bit of poa grown in given the West Coast location. The actual yardage may be deceiving, though, as many expect the course to play much longer than its scorecard due to factors like cooler weather and wet, spongy fairways. Thicker major championship rough will also be a factor.

The course has a blend of fairly straightforward holes and doglegs that will feature some tight tee shots. Several of the holes set up well for players who work the ball from right to left, although none of the doglegs on the course are overly extreme in nature. A couple scoring holes will be mixed in, including two potentially driveable par 4’s and a shorter par 5. The rest of the holes should challenge golfers just to make par, though. Seven par 4’s measure in over 450 yards in length and will certainly play extra-long this week given the weather and setup. There’s also a par 3 that should play anywhere from 240-260 yards this week and seems likely to play half a shot over par, if not more. With some wind in the forecast, a winning score similar to what we saw last year at Beth Page Black (8-under par) seems likely.


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TPC Harding Park Course Stats and Info

• Course underwent massive renovations in early 2000s and had new bentgrass greens installed in 2014.
• Hosted 2005 WGC American Express (Tiger Woods beat John Daly in a playoff); 2009 Presidents Cup (won by USA); and 2015 WGC Matchplay event (Rory McIlroy beat Gary Woodland in the final).
• Longer hitters have trended well here over time with Woods and Daly in 2005 and McIlroy finding a win here too over Woodland. It’s also worth noting that Tom Lehmen won a Champions Tour event here in 2012 and was ranked fifth in driving distance on the Champions Tour that year.
• Greens are bentgrass and quite large in spots, but there are only 47 bunkers on the course, which is half of last week and less than normal for a PGA venue.


Putting Splits

The greens at TPC Harding Park are pure bentgrass, but they should have a little poa grown through as most West Coast venues do. Here’s a look at some of the best and worst bentgrass/poa putters in the field relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.

Positive Bentgrass/Poa Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Abraham Ancer: +19 on bentgrass/poa , -11 on all other surfaces
2. Jon Rahm: +26 on bentgrass/poa , +6 on all other surfaces
3. Patrick Cantlay: +26 on bentgrass/poa , -12 on all other surfaces
*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost

Negative Bentgrass/Poa Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Matthew Fitzpatrick: +5 on bentgrass/poa , +37 on all other surfaces
2. Sungjae Im: +9 on bentgrass/poa , +31 on all other surfaces
3. Justin Thomas: -11 on bentgrass/poa , 0.0 +/- on all other surfaces


Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel

Patrick Cantlay: Grades: A,B, Values: B

Cantlay shows up here as a solid value at both major sites, although he looks a touch better on DraftKings. In terms of golfers priced in the $9,000 range on DraftKings, he has the second-highest top-six percentage in the Awesemo model this week behind only Webb Simpson. While we respect what the model gives out, it’s also OK to think around it a bit too. Simpson is coming into this major with a non-regular caddie on the bag and carries significantly less distance off the tee than Cantlay. Additionally, while we could give Simpson the upper hand in recent form, Cantlay had the third-best weekend score of anyone in the field at the WGC Memphis, gaining over four strokes combined tee to green in his last two rounds. Cantlay’s price has also come down this week — he’s $600 cheaper on DraftKings — and he’s proven adept at these PGA Championship setups, posting improved finishes at this event over the last three seasons — third last year. As Ben Rasa pointed out in his Awesemo betting article this week, Cantlay hasn’t lost strokes on his approaches in an event all season. He’s ready for a big win soon and has nice prices across the DFS landscape coming off a quiet week.

The Stats:

• Third at Beth Page Black last season; top-10 finishes in two of his last four major championship starts
• 11th in SG: APP and 10th in SG: TTG over the last 50 rounds
• Coming off weekend rounds of 65 and 67 where he gained over a stroke on approach and putting in both rounds

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 17.7%| FanDuel: 17.7%


Abraham Ancer: Grades: B, Values: B

Ancer is grouped with some pretty heady company this week. Tommy Fleetwood, Adam Scott and even the lately flimsy Justin Rose all provide stiff company. Ancer will have to outplay all of them this week to really pay off. While he grades out with slightly lesser point projections and top-six percentages than those players on Awesemo, he still has fine grades attached to him. I prefer targeting him over many of those other names. Ancer’s lead-up to this event has been nearly perfect. He’s played in five events since the restart and grabbed four top-15 finishes, including a solo runner-up bid at the RBC Heritage where he had one of the best statistical ball-striking weeks of the past five years. While his approach numbers have dipped a bit since then, it is worth noting his putter has heated up, as he’s gained over two strokes with that club in three straight starts. Top-30 on the year in shots gained tee to green, off the tee and on approach, Ancer sets up perfectly for a tough tee-to-green test that TPC Harding Park looks to provide and could provide big returns for those who choose to go with him over more well known names.

The Stats:

• Big positive splits putting on bentgrass and poa over all other surfaces (see above)
• Tied for 16th last year at lengthy Beth Page Black in PGA Championship
• 16th in SG: TTG stats and 15th in SG: OTT over the last 24 rounds

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 17.2%| FanDuel: 15.9%


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Low-Owned GPP Flier

Brendan Steele

Steele’s a golfer I don’t think about that often, but his results over the last couple of months have started to catch the eye. Prior to a weak showing at the Barracuda event (53rd), he had posted three made cuts in a row with 13th and sixth-place finishes at the Memorial and Travelers events. While his stats tend to dip and rise from event to event, he’s now gained at least 1.9 strokes on his approaches in three straight starts and certainly seems to be playing with a level of consistency we haven’t seen from him in a while. The PGA setup has been kind to Steele over the years as well, as he’s posted two top 20s in five PGA Championship starts and was the 54-hole leader at this event way back in 2011 (he finished 19th). A bigger hitter who can have dominate weeks with his driver when he’s on, Steele has solid upside at this venue if he can keep himself steady on and around the greens over the first couple of days.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 1.9%| FanDuel: 1.1%


Bonus: DraftKings Top Three Under Five

I am targeting five players here that I ultimately think will end up under (or close) to 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We’re searching for boom-or-bust players here with an almost 100% focus on upside.

Erik van Rooyen ($7,100)

His ownership seems destined to stay quite low after he ruined half of the DFS lineups in play at the 3M Open. He is a fantastic ball striker, though, who showcased well last week, gaining over three strokes off the tee in Memphis, and he tends to play well in elite field events. The South African has made the cut in all four of the major championship events he’s played, including last year’s PGA where he finished eighth.

Emiliano Grillo ($6,800)

Another player who should relish the tough conditions in play this week, Grillo’s ball striking remains elite, and lately his tee-to-green play has been particularly spectacular. The Argentine gained over eight strokes tee to green at the 3M Open and backed that performance up with a ninth last week at the Barracuda. He has made the cut at the PGA Championship in four of five starts and seems perfectly well-suited for a long, narrow golf course like TPC Harding Park where par will be a good score on most every hole.

Russell Henley ($6,600)

Henley leads the field in shots gained on approach over the last 24 rounds and gained nine and 11 strokes tee to green in two of his final four starts prior to this week. He also has good West Coast experience with multiple solid finishes to his credit at Pebble Beach, where he finished 16th at the US Open in 2010 (his first major). Considering how bad he’s putted of late, he’s a complete boom-or bust-play. He is perfect for GPPs because, if he putts even to field average (he likely won’t), he’ll likely land you a top 25 or better.


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