PGA DFS Picks Based off Awesemo's Rankings

The PGA Tour heads into the Midwest this week for the first of two stops at Muirfield Village. The Workday Charity Classic was added to the Tour’s schedule after the John Deere Classic was removed due to COVID-19 concerns. The event will take place on the same 18 holes that the Memorial is played on but with some different stylistic features attached. Muirfield will still setup as a 7,456 yard par 72 that features predominately bentgrass greens, with some poa grown through. Muirfield is known for having some of the toughest green complexes on Tour with scrambling percentages three to four points less than an average Tour stop.

The rough here is often grown thicker than you’ll see at many Tour venues, although for this week the word on the street is to expect shorter rough and slower greens as they try to give players a unique setup for this one-time event. Patrick Cantlay won here at 19 under par in 2019, gaining 7.4 strokes with his irons, and three of the last five winners at Muirfield have now gained six or more strokes on approaches for the week.

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Workday Course Stats and Info

• Par 72, 7,456 yards
• Cut makers hit 68% of fairways vs. 60% (Tour average); Scrambling percentages here have been around 53% vs. 58% (Tour average)
• Bentgrass greens mixed with poa (similar to last week); course will be setup with shorter rough and slower greens this week, compared to next
• Four par 5’s, none over 560 yards in length. These holes ranked as the four easiest holes on the course last year

Putting Splits

For the third week in a row we’ll have predominately bentgrass greens with some poa in the mix. Whereas last week’s had more poa than expected, this week’s are likely closer to being pure bentgrass. Here’s a look at some of the best and worst bent/poa grass putters in the field, relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.

Negative Bentgrass/Poa putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Cameron Champ: -16 on bent/poa, +7 on all other surfaces
2. Phil Mickelson: +/-0 on bent/poa, +16 on all other surfaces
3. Marc Leishman: +4 on bent/poa, +19 on all other surfaces
*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost

Positive Bentgrass/Poa Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Patrick Cantlay: +26 on bent/poa, -6 on all other surfaces
2. Matt Wallace: +18 on bent/poa, +2 on all other surfaces
3. Louis Oosthuizen: +15 on bent/poa, +6 on all other surfaces

Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel

Gary Woodland: Grades: A, Values: A

From a pure value perspective, I’m not sure you can do better than Woodland this week. He ranks behind just three players (one is the carcass of Jason Day) in the value projections on Awesemo and has juicy-looking price tags attached on both major DFS sites. Before his missed cut two weeks ago, the 2019 U.S. Open winner had gained 2.5 strokes or more on his approaches in four of his last five starts on Tour. That sort of consistency should play well at Muirfield Village where three of the last five winners have gained six or more strokes on their approaches. Woodland’s stellar course history also doesn’t seem to be factored into his pricing. He’s played the Memorial event eight seasons in a row and has only missed the cut at Muirfield once, landing a career-best tied-fourth finish in 2016. Ranked ninth in the field in par-4 efficiency from 450-500 yards, he should be able to handle the longer par 4’s in play better than most and at his low-$8,000 salary on DraftKings and makes for a great mid-tier value target.

The Stats:

• Has made seven out of eight cuts at Muirfield Village over his career
• Has gained strokes putting now in seven straight starts
• Ranked ninth in the field in par-4 efficiency from 450-500 yards

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 13.6%| FanDuel: 13.7

Rickie Fowler: Grades: A, Values: B

Fowler showed a heartbeat last week as he posted book-end rounds of 67 in Detroit to get him into a tied-12th finishing position. The 2015 Players champion doesn’t grade out as a top bargain on Awesemo, but he does carry solid point projections nonetheless, which have him ranked out in front of studs like Victor Hovland and Sungjae Im for the Workday. Fowler’s progression since the restart has been slow, but it’s worth noting that he has now improved his strokes gained: tee to green stats in three straight starts. He also finally had a decent week with his putter in Detroit, gaining 1.2 strokes on the greens there. Fowler should be eager to get back to Muirfield Village where he’s now finished inside the top 15 in three straight seasons, gaining at least five strokes tee-to-green in each of those finishes. Fowler’s proximity to names like Hovland and Collin Morikawa in pricing this week should keep his ownership levels down and makes him a solid pivot play given how well he grades out in the site’s point projections.

The Stats:

• Has finished second, eighth, 14th at Muirfield the last three seasons
• Has gained at least two strokes putting at Muirfield the last three years
• Improved ball-striking stats (strokes gained) in three straight starts

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 12.3%| FanDuel: 14.4%

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Low-Owned GPP flier

Bud Cauley: Grades: C, Values: B

After withdrawing due to a COVID-19 scare in his last start, Cauley will return to action this week at one of his favorite venues on Tour. In six visits to Muirfield Village over his career, Cauley’s made the weekend here five times, recording ninth- and 25th-place finishes in 2019 and 2017. What’s really interesting about Cauley is how he’s achieved his success at Muirfield. Outside of his one missed cut from 2018, Cauley has never failed to gain at least 1.5 strokes on his approaches at Muirfield. In two out of his last four visits, he has gained five or more strokes in this area for the week. His recent form has been more solid than his player card suggests too, as he ranks 20th in strokes gained on approach, 12th in around the green and 14th in tee to green over the last 50 rounds. Plus he’s gained 2.5 or more strokes on approaches in three of his last four starts. Coming off a withdrawal and a missed cut in back-to-back starts, he should garner low sentiment around the horn this week and makes for a great GPP target in the first go-around at Muirfield.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 4.4%| FanDuel: 2.8%

Bonus: DraftKings Picks | Top Five under Five

I am targeting five players here that I ultimately think will end up under (or close to) 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We’re searching for boom-or-bust players here with an almost 100% focus on upside.

Jordan Spieth ($8,600)

• Has improved his SG: APP stats in three straight starts now and sneakily made six cuts in a row
• Has gained 1.9 strokes or more off the tee in five of his seven starts at Muirfield Village and finished 15th or better here in three of last five starts
• May end up well above 5% owned in many spots but still a great GPP pivot for me; was eighth in birdies made at Travelers despite losing strokes putting for the week

Louis Oosthuizen ($7,900)

• Projects to be well under 5% owned yet played well to start in his last event when he opened with a 64 before fading
• Also has been good from some key proximity ranges for this week; ranks fifth in proximity from 175-200 yards, which is busiest grouping of approaches for this venue
• Pedigree play, but also finished 13th at this venue two years ago and will be playing Muirfield for the third year in a row

Henrik Norlander ($6,500)

• Coming in on a two-event made-cut streak and finished 12th in Detroit where he gained a ridiculous 8.2 strokes on his approaches
• Good ball striker when he’s on and hasn’t lost strokes off the tee or on approach in three straight starts since the hiatus lifted, which sets him up well for tougher test that Muirfield should provide

Carlos Ortiz ($6,400)

• Has only lost strokes on his approaches once now in his last six starts and has also flashed improved around-the-green game this year which has him ranked 16th in SG: ATG in this field over the last 50 rounds
• Has shown when he’s on, the upside he’s able to provide at this price is mammoth, as he’s recorded six finishes of 12th or better since the beginning of 2019

K.H. Lee ($6,300)

• Finished 37th at Muirfield on his debut last season, but led at halfway point and gained strokes everywhere but on the greens for the week
• Gained over five strokes on approaches last week and would have likely contended there but for a terrible week on the greens. Makes him a good pop candidate if he can figure that club out even a little for this week