This week will mark the third running of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. The event started off as an opposite-field event, but it has its own place on the schedule in the fall swing as part of the PGA’s three-week international excursion. Brendon Todd won in 2019, and last year Brian Gay prevailed over Wyndham Clark in a playoff. Both winners went off around 200-1 in the betting odds for the week. This article will utilize the Awesemo expert PGA DFS projections and daily fantasy golf ownership for DFS golf lineup picks this week on DraftKings and FanDuel.
The event takes place on the small island of Bermuda and is played at the longest course on the island, the par-71, 6,828-yard Port Royal Golf Club. The venue used to host the defunct Grand Slam of Golf back in the day and underwent major renovations to be able to host the current-day pros. The course is short (one of the shortest on tour), and its main defense is the wind and its location on the sea. Six of the holes skirt the ocean, where trade winds can wreak havoc if they are up. Both Gay and Todd ranked inside the top 10 in driving accuracy and putting for the week of their win. Power off the tee has been a non-factor the first two seasons, as players with good short-iron play and strong putting skills have dominated.
Port Royal Golf Club Stats and Info
- Par 71, 6,825-yard venue; uses TifEagle Bermuda grass on the greens and has water in play on six holes.
- Six of the par 4’s on the course measure in under 400 yards in length, but smaller greens and winds have kept greens in regulation under tour average through two years.
- The biggest trend in winners have been their ability to both avoid three-putts and hit fairways; the first two winners both ranked top eight in driving accuracy for the week.
Putting Splits
The green types at Port Royal Golf Club are TifEagle Bermuda and should resemble many of the mainland PGA courses that use that similar turf. Use caution with these putting splits in fantasy golf picks; they are not the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.
Positive Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout: +39 strokes on Bermuda, +6 strokes on all other surfaces
- Matthew Fitzpatrick: +44 on Bermuda, +17 on all other surfaces
- Peter Uihlein: +27 on Bermuda, -2 on all other surfaces
+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost
Negative Bentgrass Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds
- Stephan Jaeger: -7 on Bermuda, +9 on all other surfaces
- Beau Hossler: +8 on Bermuda, +26 on all other surfaces
- Hank Lebioda: -15 on Bermuda, +10 on all other surfaces
Daily Fantasy Golf Picks: Bermuda Championship
*Grades are ordered DraftKings, FanDuel. Initial grade indicates a player’s strength of output for the week, with the value grade indicating their strength as a play in relation to their salary.
Matthew Fitzpatrick: Grades: A+, A | Values: C, B
Matthew Fitzpatrick comes into this event off the back of a win a couple of weeks ago in Spain at the AndalucÃa Masters on one of the toughest golf courses in the world in Valderrama. He comes into this week looking to grab his first PGA title and could not ask for a better field to get said win against. Only three of the world’s top 50 players are in attendance, which has Fitzpatrick available at just +1000 in the betting odds at most sites. On top of the weaker field, this venue appears like it will suit the shorter Fitzpatrick quite well.
He leads this field in strokes gained putting on Bermuda grass over the last 50 rounds and ranks fifth in fairways gained and third in birdie-or-better percentage over that same span. From a projection standpoint, he is a clear No. 1 player too. Fitzpatrick is the only player with an A+ grade in DraftKings points projected for the week and has a win percentage in the model that is over 1% higher than the next golfer. At $11,000 on DraftKings he is projected to be the highest-owned player but is also the strongest projected play there among the upper tier this week. Eating the chalk on a week with tons of wind in the forecast and a highly variable field is not a bad idea.
The Stats:
- Leads the field in strokes gained putting on Bermuda grass (+44 strokes on Bermuda over his last 50 rounds).
- Ranks top five in birdie-or-better percentage and fairways gained over the last 50 rounds.
Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 27.8%
Adam Hadwin Grades: A, B | Values: C, B
Fall momentum can often be a big deal in these weaker-field events, and this week not many have better fall form than Adam Hadwin. He comes into this event off a sixth-place finish in his last start two weeks ago at the Shriners. Hadwin gained 5.7 strokes on approach in Las Vegas and 3.5 strokes putting — the second week in a row that he has gained over two strokes on the greens. Hadwin had some strong results towards the end of last season, too, putting up 10th- and sixth-place finishes in two of the last three regular-season events. He ranks well in fairways gained recently and, like Fitzpatrick, should be helped off the tee by the plethora of short par 4’s.
Hadwin has typically done his best work on these shorter PGA setups as well. For his career, he has posted top-five finishes at venues like TPC Stadium (multiple times), TPC Summerlin and Colonial, which all tend to emphasize placement and approach games over power off the tee. This will be his first time playing the Bermuda Championship, but with most facets of his game looking sharp, he is reliable for DFS this week given the weaker field. Awesemo gives him the best points projection for anyone under $10,000 in salary on DraftKings and looks like a fantastic upper-tier value based on his $9,400 price tag there.
The Stats:
- Has gained strokes around the green in four straight events; has gained 2.1 strokes or more putting in two straight starts.
- Will be making his fourth fall tour start this week and is coming off a 46th place and sixth-place finish in his last outing at the Shriners.
Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 20.0%
Low-Owned Daily Fantasy Golf GPP Flier
Matthias Schwab
This field certainly lacks a ton of upper tier PGA Tour pros, but there are some high-end European Tour players. Matthias Schwab has popped in these weaker-field events before, and he comes into this event having already secured his PGA Tour card for 2021 after an eighth-place finish at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship a couple of months ago.
He has been playing more frequently of late over in Europe, where he has posted 12th- and 15th-place finishes over his last three starts and is the kind of player who can hot enough with his irons to go low on a shorter setup like Port Royal. Schwab gained strokes both off the tee and on approach in his last start over in Europe, but his biggest attraction will undoubtedly be his ownership, which is projected to push well under 10% in this spot. Schwab’s higher price will almost assuredly keep ownership low, but his upside remains intact, as he still has the 13th-best win percentage in this field in the Awesemo model. He is a nice pivot option in a field lacking many great options in that regard this week.
Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 5.7%
DraftKings Top two Under 5%
I am targeting two players that will end up under (or close) to 5% ownership in larger DraftKings GPPs. This section is searching for boom/bust players with an almost 100% focus on upside.
Bo Hoag
Bo Hoag has missed a couple of cuts in a row but has the type of game we like to profile. He is top 15 in fairways gained over the last 50 rounds and hits his short irons well from a proximity perspective. He landed an 11th-place finish at this venue/event in 2019 and has done his best work on tour on shorter, more technical tracks that profile similar to Port Royal.
Peter Uihlein
Peter Uihlein has been up and down all year, but he has proven that when his game is on he can compete. Uihlein grabbed a win on the Korn Ferry Tour last season and also grabbed a second place not too long ago back on the same tour. He comes in sixth in strokes gained putting on Bermuda over the last 50 rounds and has had success both in Europe and on the PGA at these more coastal, open setups. With poor weather on tap, chasing a high-end putter in Uihlein, who has shown some better play of late, makes sense in large fields.
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