PGA DFS Picks: This column is a quick-hitter article to give you the stats you need to make informed decisions for your PGA DFS lineups and give you a couple of recommendations. Not a member of Awesemo+? Sign up HERE to get access to Awesemo’s premium projections and rankings for DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft, as well as Jason Rouslin’s in-tournament models.
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Tournament Update
DraftKings is offering $10,000 to first for the Final Round slate and $2,000 for the late-round slate. The lock is 11:04 for the main slate.
Saturday WeatherÂ
The run of great weather since the Sony Open should continue on Saturday. A tad chilly right in the morning.
PGA DFS Round 3 Recap
The studs came out to play today, as Webb Simpson and Tony Finau were on fire in the desert. Simpson’s run started on 11 when he duck hooked one left, somehow stayed out of the hazard, roped it up to 17 feet and made it. Then, hit a 7-iron 190 yards directly into the hole on the par-3 12 for eagle. Still, that wasn’t enough in the end of the day to catch Finau, who could have easily shot two shots better, missing a six-footer for eagle on 15, and a four-footer for birdie on 17. Hudson Swafford, playing on a major medical extension, has himself into position to get his card back if he can maintain his tie for third.
Lastly, J.B. Holmes found a stroke on the back nine and has himself within three. He will tee it up with Xander Schauffele, who has quietly stayed in this tournament and is within striking distance of the leaders heading into Sunday.
PGA DFS Statistical AnalysisÂ
Finau had a superb day, gaining over seven shots the field and doing it with all facets of his game. He only gained half a shot putting, so it’s not like he was that hot with it, but still, he made some key putts like the eagle on 15. No surprise, he leads tee to green through three rounds. Focusing on just ball striking alone, Scott Piercy, Webb Simpson, Adam Long and Keith Mitchell all are playing well, gaining over two strokes per round.
None of them lead the ball striking vs. putting category though; that title still goes to Charley Hoffman. He bounced back in round 3, matching the field, but still has gained more than four strokes ball striking. Grayson Murray had a terrible day on the greens, losing four strokes, while local resident Martin Laird also had a tough day, losing 3.63 strokes. For the tournament, Murray has gained four more strokes ball striking and Laird is just shy of that number.
Xinjun Zhang and Chesson Hadley are both losing strokes tee to green yet tying Homes with 18 birdies. Simpson, Long and Schauffele each have 17, while Max Homa, Branden Grace and Swafford have 16.
For the full list of statistics, click here.
PGA DFS Final-Round PicksÂ
Top-10 Pick
With two studs sitting at the top and in the final group, it’ll be hard to fade either of them. Since those are the more obvious plays, I’ll write about one that I haven’t yet this week.
Scott Piercy ($7,600)
Familiar with these parts, Piercy was a highlight of my course history article earlier in the week. He has found his ball-striking stride, especially on the approaches, gaining 1.69 on average per round and just over five for the tournament. He’s also known as an inconsistent putter, but not this week. He’s gained in each of the three rounds, averaging just shy of .75. That level of ball striking and putting is a great combo to make a run at first tomorrow and at least land him inside the top five.
PGA DFS Stud or Value Pick Outside of Top 10
Matt Kuchar ($8,700)
Sitting just two shots outside of the top 10, Kuchar is in a position to get his fourth straight here. He’s known for his backdoor top-10’s and late birdies that are otherwise meaningless to the outcome of the tournament. He has remained steady with irons all week, averaging just over a stroke gained per round, while remaining warm with the putter as well.
Sneaky Pick Outside of Top 10
James Hahn ($6,400)
Playing on a major medical, Hahn is in a position to pick up a big paycheck. He sits just a couple outside the top 10, a pivotal spot for some much needed FedEx Cup points. He’s shot every round in the 60s while gaining just about a stroke on average with his irons, but has struggled a bit off the tee which is holding him back from the top 10. If he squares that way overnight, he’s a good addition for someone who will give you salary flexibility and is only within a couple of shots of the top 10 for positional points.
PGA DFS Lineup Fill-InsÂ
Hudson Swafford ($6,500)
Keith Mithell ($6,300)
Byeong Hun An ($8,800)Â
