PGA DFS: Showdown Spotlight Final Round of the Genesis Invitational

PGA DFS Picks: This column is a quick-hitter article to give you the stats you need to make informed decisions for your PGA DFS lineups and give you a couple of recommendations.


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Tournament Update

DraftKings is offering $15,000 to first for the final round slate with $70,000 guaranteed.

Sunday Weather 

I hate to sound repetitive, but it is the weather in Los Angeles, after all. We should have another nice winter day at 60-ish degrees, colder in the morning, warming up to the mid-’60s with little to no wind.

PGA DFS Round 3 Recap & Sweatsheet

The theme of four holes account for most of the DraftKings scoring held true again, as they’re aren’t many birdies out there other than a few holes. With tight pins, super-fast greens and difficult angles, birdies are hard to come by.

Matt Kuchar, who led day 1 and 2, couldn’t create any separation today, coming back to the field and bringing in a wealth of people for the final round. Twenty-one golfers are within five of the lead, and 10 within three is sure to bring a fun Sunday for all those that like to sweat some golf. Rory McIlroy put on a nice charge, as did Adam Scott, who stumbled out of the gates before playing the last 10 holes at 5 under par.  Harold Varner III was able to maintain his hot form, and he, along with Russell Henley, sit just one back of the trio at -10.


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PGA DFS Statistical Analysis 

Paul Casey has bounced back after a dreadful day in the wind last Sunday, averaging almost three strokes gained per round ball striking this week. He’s only been held back by a very cold putter, as he leads the shots gained ball striking versus putting category. Bryson DeChambeau had a great day ball striking but was awful with the putter, and he now sits in second, just ahead of Patrick Cantlay, Adam Scott and Tiger Woods, who had the worst putting of his career on Saturday.

Click here to see the full list of statistics.

PGA DFS Final-Round Picks & Strategy 

Strategy

The leaderboard is so compact, it does bring a lot of golfers back into the mix for this final round. Since DraftKings assigns finishing points to the golfers, ownership is easier to predict. Today’s low was 64, turned in by two different players, so I’ll assume someone can get their tomorrow. With an average score of just under par, that should means someone starting around 6back of the top 10 could end up backdooring a top 10 with a 64 on Sunday. Let’s take a look at a patch of golfers that sit within 7 of the top 10:

Casey leads the chasing pack, gaining almost 2.5 strokes per round with his ball striking, edging out Collin Morikawa and Patrick Cantlay. Matthew Fitzpatrick, Marc Leishman, Brooks Keopeka, Sam Burns, Sergio Garcia, Xander Schaffele and Sebastian Munoz have all flashed form this week and gained on average at least one stroke ballstriking per round, but haven’t found a consistent flow with the rest of their games.

Top-10 Pick

With all three leaders expected to be quite popular, I’ll put my lions share in Scott, and if I have enough money for McIlroy, I’ll get him as well. If not, I’m OK fading him as the highest-priced golfer on the slate. Outside of them, I’ll turn my attention to local product Max Homa.

Max Homa ($7,400)

His course knowledge paid off in a big way today, going out early and posting a 65, a phenomenal round to get himself within three. He considers this course his home, having played it growing up, and he will have a plethora of local support coming tomorrow. Homa will need his irons to be on point tomorrow if he expects to win, something like what he had in round 2 where he gained almost two strokes.

PGA DFS Stud or Value Pick Outside of Top 10

The three leaders are obvious plays, but If you can only pick two, I’ll have Scott the most, followed by McIlroy then Kuchar.

Paul Casey ($7,800)

This is a pure statistical play as I haven’t seen one shot of Casey all week. But averaging 2.5 strokes ball striking is not something to pass over, and at a reasonable salary, I like Casey to mend his Sunday woes from last week and charge up the leaderboard.

Sneaky Pick Outside of Top 10

Sam Burns ($6,100)

In my fill-ins last night, Burns played another solid round on Saturday and is within a couple of the top 10. He’s already had one Sunday this year that he’s charged up the leaderboard. It was just a few hours north of here at the American Express. His ball striking slipped a bit in round 3, but still, for the tournament, he’s averaging over 1.50 per round. At this salary and sitting as close to the top 10 as he is, I’m definitely going to buy into another magical Sunday from Burns.

PGA DFS Lineup Fill-Ins 

Collin Morikawa ($8,200)

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($7,400)

Marc Leishman ($8,500) 


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Author
Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].

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