PGA DFS: Showdown Spotlight Final Round of the Sentry Tournament of Champions (FREE)

PGA DFS Final Round

There were a couple of more birdies yesterday on the first hole, as the tee boxes were moved up. That didn’t’ help the second and third hole though—only 17 birdies now through the first three holes of the tournament. The fifth hole still played the easiest, surrendering five eagles this year and plenty of birdies. You have to birdie five if you plan to have a good day. That leads me to my next tidbit on the hole by hole scoring: four holes totaled about 50% of the scoring. Add in 18 and you’ve got almost 60% in four holes, which leads to a very tight leaderboard. 12 golfers are within four of the lead, and go even a stroke further and you’ve got 14 within five.

I think this is a good time to bring up and refresh everyone’s memories: there are positional points awarded to golfers today. It’s easy to forget since other showdown formats don’t have it but the final round showdown awards positional points based on finishing position.

PGA DFS Statistical Analysis 

Cameron Champ and Collin Morikawa both have 14 birdies and trail Justin Thomas and Patrick Reed, who have 17 and 16 respectively. Champ has been erratic at best through the entirety of his bag, and he struggled with his approaches in round one and his putts in round three. Still, his Driving Distance puts him in position to birdie every par 5 without swinging his hardest.

Jim Herman caught fire on the front nine yesterday, going out in a six-under 30, but stalled on the back nine. He still hasn’t figured out these greens, now leading the SG: BS vs. SG: P over Xander Schauffele and Justin Thomas. Imagine if those guys were putting well? They’d be lapping the field. Matthew Wolff and Corey Conners round out the top five in the category.

On the flip side, Sebastian Munoz’ ball-striking has evaded him since that triple bogey on 18 a couple of rounds ago. He along with J.B Holmes, Kevin Na, Patrick Reed and J.T. Poston are doing it the Jordan Spieth Way: putting much better than they are striking it.

PGA DFS Final Round Picks 

Top-10 Pick

All the studs in the field except two, Cantlay and Johnson, are in the top 10 heading into Sunday. This unequivocally will give us an exciting final round, but with only 34 players in the field and the studs all up top, it makes picking just one rather tricky. Schauffele and Thomas have played at least a stroke better in terms of strokes gained tee to green over the rest of the top 10, which would suggest they are in the best form.

Kevin Kisner, like Graeme McDowell yesterday, will likely be very popular, tied for fourth and coming in at seven-under yesterday. Fading McDowell worked yesterday and I plan to do the same with Kisner today. The difference maker will be who plays the best out of the three between Jon Rahm, Morikawa and Wolff. All sit in that tie for fourth and all are averaging over a stroke gained tee to green in their first three rounds. I like Wolff-Morikawa-Rahm in that order to pair up with Thomas andSchauffele.

PGA DFS Stud or Value Pick outside of Top-10

Lanto Griffin ($7,500)

Griffin and Tyler Duncan have been great surprises this week, providing great salary flexibility for week-long teams where you needed to add Thomas and Schaffele. Duncan, however, has been much more of a roller coaster in terms of his scoring. He shot two scores in the 60s but coupling those with a 78, the highest round of anyone in the field this week. That has me heading for a bit more safety in Griffin, who’s gone 72,71 and 71.

Sneaky Pick Outside of Top 10

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This is another tough one today, as it’s hard to get sneaky with only 34 players, minus the six players that have fewer than 10 birdies and no eagles. You only have 27 golfers to chose from. Jim Herman put it together for nine holes yesterday and provided a great return to those that rostered him for showdown purposes. Sung Kang got the chipping yips on 14 yesterday and carried them into 15. It cost him three strokes in just two holes, going double bogey on two of the easiest holes on the course.

Keith Mitchell looked as though he was going to climb back into it after his eagle-birdie finish in round two. That did not end up being the case. Still, Kang, Herman and Mitchell each have 12 birdies at this point in the tournament. If I had to take any of them at this point, I’d lean Mitchell because of his driving distance. Plus, he’s out first of the three, so maybe he gets better weather.

PGA DFS Lineup Fill-Ins 

Matthew Wolff ($8,400)

Cameron Champ ($7,300)

Tyler Ducan ($6,400)