PGA DFS Breakdown: WGC-Mexico Final Round

PGA DFS Picks: This column is a quick-hitter article to give you the stats you need to make informed decisions for your PGA DFS lineups and give you a couple of recommendations.

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Tournament Update

DraftKings is offering $20,000 to first for the final round slate with $100,000 guaranteed.

Sunday Weather

There is no weather or even wind to talk about for the final round tomorrow.

PGA DFS Round 3 Recap and Sweatsheet

Bryson DeChambeau started the day off with a bang, eagling the first and birding the second, but played 2-over golf from there and let everyone back in the golf tournament. Justin Thomas took full advantage of that and made a couple of nice putts heading down the stretch, and now leads by one. Erik van Rooyen continued his impressive all-around game, holing out once and hitting plenty of other big-time shots and drives. He sits just one back in what could be the most crucial round of golf he’s ever played. He and Patrick Reed are the closest chasers and will give Thomas all he can handle.

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PGA DFS Statistical Analysis

Hideki Matsuyama was rolling along the first couple of rounds, looking confident with the putter and his approaches. But his putter decided that would be a short run, losing almost three strokes on the round. Matching the field would put him three back. He still trails Byeong Hun An and Sung Kang in shots gained ball striking versus putting (SG: BS vs. P). Lanto Griffin, Tyrell Hatton and Collin Morikawa all have gained at least four more strokes ball striking than with their flat stick.

PGA DFS Final-Round Picks and Strategy

Strategy

Last week, we saw a condensed leaderboard, whereas this week if you are inside the top 10, you have a three-shot lead over 11th place. That could limit the upside of some of these other chasers, and will certainly be making them fire at pins. Let’s take a look at the chasers board:

Abraham Ancer is the closest chaser and will hope to make the hometown fans proud by sneaking into the top 10 tomorrow. A couple of other names that look good tee to green are Griffin, Morikawa, Justin Harding, Xander Schauffele and Corey Conners.

For the full list click here!

Top-10 Pick

Five of the top-priced players at the beginning of the week are inside the top 10 heading into the final day. That’ll make it hard to decide, so I’ll rank them then give my other pick.

Thomas > McIlroy > Rahm > Matsuyama > DeChambeau > Reed

Erik van Rooyen ($7,600)

He is probably the obvious play, but sometimes that’s OK. Van Rooyen has a great chance to win, and at least on the European Tour, has won before. He’s looked great in all aspects at different times, which should give him a ton of confidence, no matter the shot or circumstance.

PGA DFS Stud or Value Pick Outside of Top 10

Rafa Cabrera Bello ($7,700)

Cabrera Bello had a chance last week heading into Sunday and caught some of those Sunday blues. I’m hoping he shook off that rust last week and his strong approach game that we saw in round 3 will stay hot for another round. The putter hasn’t been hot nor cold; he had a small discrepancy between the three rounds, ranging from gaining .21 to losing .1

Sneaky Pick Outside of Top 10

Benjamin Hebert ($6,100)

Spiking to form in round 3, gaining almost three and a half strokes from tee to green, the Frenchmen has himself in position to make a run at a top-10 in a PGA Tour event. The range of outcomes here seems pretty high, though, as round 1, he lost almost two strokes tee to green, so be mindful of some type of regression. However, if he shoots under par, makes five birdies and stays around the top 10, he could be valuable in fitting a couple of studs into your lineups.

PGA DFS Lineup Fill-Ins

Kevin Na ($7,800)

Gary Woodland ($8,600)

Carlos Oritz ($7,000)

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Author

Jason Rouslin

Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].