PGA DFS Picks: Showdown Spotlight for the Final round l Northern Trust

This column is a quick-hitter article to give you the stats you need to make informed PGA DFS picks for your DraftKings + FanDuel daily fantasy lineups and give you a couple of recommendations for The Northern Trust. On a typical showdown contest, DraftKings will offer upwards of $50,000 to first for rounds 2 and 3 showdown and sometimes up to $100,000 for the final-round contests. They also provide weekend-long contests that have been offering $25,000 to first for most weekends. Lastly, FanDuel has also tried to get into the weekend-long and final round contests, offering $10,000 and $5,000 to first.

Previous Round Commentary

Saturday was moving day for a pair of Euros, Tyrrell Hatton and Alex Noren, who vaulted into the top 10. Hatton went around in 63, while Noren had 64. But a late double-bogey cost Harris English a chance at a co-lead heading into Sunday, as Dustin Johnson extended his lead and capped it off with an eagle on 18. Talor Gooch and Hideki Matsuyama move into the top 20 with a pair of 65s, each getting into position to make a run at a top 10 on Sunday. Both should be quality candidates for lower-owned plays that can close the positional gap.

Previous Round Stat Review

It was another low-scoring day at TPC Boston, as the scoring average was just above 68. The conditions continue to be incredibly easy for these pro golfers.

BOB Leaders in Round 3

Tyrell Hatton (10)
Alex Noren, Harris English, Talor Gooch, (8)
Dustin Johnson, Cameron Smith, Zach Johnson (7)

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Strokes Gained Differential

Hatton is the epitome of PGA DFS this week. He gained 3.67 strokes ball striking in round 1, lost 3.14 in round 2 and gained 4.7 in round 3. How can one foresee that? Patrick Reed, Matt Kuchar, Gooch and Matsuyama all saw vast improvements in their ball striking in round 3, gaining more than three strokes over what they did in round 2.

Strokes Gained Ball Striking vs. Putting

Keegan Bradley got himself into great positions on Saturday but just could not capitalize and now leads this category. Maybe there’s a magical Sunday in his putter. Rory McIlroy and Adam Scott are the only other golfers averaging three more strokes ball striking than putting, while Johnson, Kevin Streelman and Si Woo Kim round out the top five.

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8:45 a.m.EST

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DraftKings:

DraftKings is offering $100,000 to first and $350,000 guaranteed.

FanDuel:

FanDuel is offering $5,000 to first and $25,000 guaranteed for the final round slate

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General Slate Strategy

Every Saturday night/Sunday morning, I always make people aware of the fact that finishing points are assigned to golfers for the final-round showdown slate. It adds another wrinkle to an already variable game, that’s for sure.

I like to look for guys inside the top 30 but outside the top 20, as those are the golfers that tend to go lower-owned and can also close the positional gap to earn pivotal points.

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Top 10 Breakdown and Picks

With Johnson so far in front, the other golfers look like they will be playing for position. Louis Oosthuizen, Harry Higgs, Danny Lee and Bubba Watson all maintained their good play, as did Daniel Berger and Scottie Scheffler. Cam Davis was really the only one to fall back on the day. Even as Russell Henley and Kevin Kisner didn’t play all that great, they still managed to break par and are inside the top 10 heading into Sunday.

Harry Higgs ($6,600)

Higgs is the only golfer priced under $7,000 that has progressively gotten better tee to green as the week has gone on. He’s one of those guys that when the putter gets going, the rest of game seems to follow, and that’s what’s happened this week. Sure, first place may be out of reach, but a top five could get him to next week, depending on where things fall and also a pretty healthy paycheck. Neither of those things he’ll take lightly tomorrow.

Stud or Value Pick Outside of Top 10

Matt Kuchar ($6,800)

Kuchar had quite the quiet return, doing nothing. But finally, his irons broke today, and his putting has looked on all week. He gained 3.81 today, finally breaking out of the slump he’s been in, and he now is in prime shape for one of those infamous back-door Kuchar top 10s. He’s just three outside that number now, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see his name on the first page of the leaderboard tomorrow night.

Sneaky Pick Outside of Top 10

Cameron Smith ($6,900)

Smith, known for his short game than anything else, looks like he’s got his irons rolling this week. He gained over two for the second straight day, and that’s a day after gaining a half a stroke on Thursday. So, when the irons are marching, that’s certainly a good time to back this young Aussie. He can lite it up in a hurry on the greens, and with his irons bursting into form, that’s something we want to get behind.