This column is a quick-hitter article to give you the stats you need to make informed PGA DFS picks for your DraftKings + FanDuel daily fantasy lineups and give you a couple of recommendations for the Tour Championship. On a typical showdown contest, DraftKings will offer upwards of $50,000 to first for rounds 2 and 3 showdown and sometimes up to $100,000 for the final-round contests. They also provide weekend-long contests that have been offering $25,000 to first for most weekends. Lastly, FanDuel has also tried to get into the weekend-long and final round contests, offering $10,000 and $5,000 to first.
Previous Round Commentary and Lineup
The one thing I would think most people, and maybe more specifically bettors, feared was a Dustin Johnson pull-away. He kept the field in it for the first two days, but today was the day he created some distance between him and second place. $15 million is just 18 holes away, and regardless of his finish, he will be heading into Winged Foot in a couple of weeks as the odds favorite to win the tournament. That is a dramatic shift from just about a month ago when he couldn’t break 80. In some news other than Johnson, Collin Morikawa had the bunker shot of the year today, and honestly, I can’t even really put it into words, so here’s the video:
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) September 6, 2020
He actually struggled after that for a bit but bounced back and got himself into position for at least a shot at second place. Xander Schauffele continues to be impressive, and Justin Thomas finally found some touch on the greens. So even with Johnson five in front, at least three studs who are all playing well aren’t that far behind him. I forgot to even mention Jon Rahm, who had a nice bounce-back round after yesterday’s 74.
Yesterday I couldn’t get the studs right, and today I couldn’t get the scrubs right. Maybe tomorrow’s my day I match them together? I am still happy to be 2-for-2 on the cash line.
Previous Round Stat Review
Rahm’s bounce-back round was bogey-free. His putter just wasn’t hot enough, or else he could have really gone low.
BOB Leaders thru round 3
- Collin Morikawa (17)
- Dustin Johnson and Xander Schauffele (16)
- Daniel Berger, Tony Finau and Lanto Griffin (14)
Strokes Gained Ball Striking Differential
There are no real surprises going from round 2 to 3, as Champ, Rahm and Johnson all gained at least three more strokes in round 3 than they did in round 2. Billy Horschel, Ryan Palmer and Joaquin Niemann all gained at least 1.8 more.
Strokes Gained Ball Striking vs. Putting
Anyone who rostered Champ in showdown round 3 contests today must have been absolutely infuriated with his play. He lost over four strokes putting on the day and another 1.16 around the green. That brings his weekly total in terms of ball-striking to putting 3.85 strokes higher in the former. Justin Thomas had a small breakthrough in round 3 and now sits in second. Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa and Sungjae Im round out the top five.
11:35 a.m. EST
- DraftKings is offering $100,000 to first and $325,000 guaranteed for round 4 showdown contests.
- FanDuel is offering $5,000 to first and $30,000 guaranteed for the final-round slate.
Top 10 Breakdown and Picks
With Johnson shooting the tournament low 64 today, even Daniel Berger’s tournament low wasn’t enough to get him any close to Johnson. But Berger and Scheffler have put themselves in a spot where if they go out and do something truly special, like break 60, they could win the biggest prize in professional golf. Rory McIlroy, Brendon Todd and Tyrrell Hatton all didn’t do themselves any favors on Sunday, shooting an even-par 70.
Scottie Scheffler ($7,200)
It’s hard not to like every golfer in the top five. For me, I’m not giving up on Morikawa, I’ve faded Schauffele all the way here, and I’ve tried to ride Thomas. So I’ll stick with that and add in either Rahm or Johnson on a couple of lineups. That brings us to Scheffler, who looked better each and every day and presents a high-upside, probably high-owned play. I don’t typically like to recommend higher-owned golfers, but he fits really nicely into lineups with how good he’s looked over the last few days.
Stud or Value Pick Outside of Top 10
Hideki Matsuyama ($8,200)
The irons have stayed hot this week, and with a good putting day on Sunday, Matsuyama was able to get to 3 under. The other stats didn’t look good, so maybe it all will click tomorrow, and there’s a 64 in him. He will be low owned with others more popular around him, so I like that aspect as well.
Sneaky Pick Outside of Top 10
Joaquin Niemann ($6,900)
I think the 6% ownership we got in round 3 is likely to double for round 4, but Niemann found something on the back half of that second round. He was bogey-free through 16 holes and added four birdies. The stats all looked much better, so there’s something to hang our hat on.
Bryson DeChambeau ($8,400)
Justin Thomas ($10,400)
Jon Rahm ($10,100)
Billy Horschel ($6,500)
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