PGA DFS Picks: This column is a quick-hitter article to give you the stats you need to make informed decisions for your PGA DFS lineups and give you a couple of recommendations. DraftKings is offering $20,000 to first for the third round slate with $75,000 GTD.
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Sunday WeatherÂ
You didn’t know this was the U.S. Open week, did you?! High winds, long rough, rock hard greens. No, it’s actually just the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but a full-on war has broken out, and the winning score may not get lower than what the leader is right now. No change in the weather tomorrow expect it’ll be a little warmer, and maybe a little less breezy?
PGA DFS Round 3 Recap and Sweatsheet
75.91. +3.91 over par. WOW. Definitely, the first time I’ve seen that in a normal PGA Tour event in quite some time. World-class golfers like Patrick Reed, Hideki Matsuyama, & former major winner Brooks Koepka couldn’t even break 80. Yikes.
In addition to that, there was only one golfer that actually broke par on the day, Max Homa, and he was done with his round before Kang even made it to the course. Something to keep an eye on for tomorrow. In fact, only seven other golfers were able to shot even par, and three of them teed off before 830 am, not including Homa. Obviously going out early, and getting the softer greens, was a big factor in that.
One last fact this was the first time in over five years that not one golfer shot in the 60s for the day. Incredible.
PGA DFS Statistical AnalysisÂ
Just when you thought it couldn’t get worse for Ben An, it did, losing over four strokes putting in round three. He jolts up the leaderboard, the wrong leaderboard though, the Strokes Gained ball-striking vs. putting one. He surpasses Collin Morikawa, who had a better day putting, losing only a third of a stroke, and Joel Dahmen, who was in a similar boat to Collin in round three. Keegan Bradley, & Hideki Matsuyama, piled on another 1.93 and 3.76 lost strokes, respectively, and round out the top 5 in the category.
Marc Leishman seems extremely dangerous heading into tomorrow, as he’s relied on his putter more than his other clubs this week, typically a great sign of things to come for him. Already a winner here, and a winner this year, I wouldn’t bet against the tall Aussie in the final round. Harris English has also gained more putting than he has ball-striking and is the only other golfer in the top 10 to do so than Leishman.
PGA DFS Final Round Picks and Strategy
Commentary:
The final round always brings in a new element of strategy to the showdown format, finishing points. While the difference between 9th and 20th is negligible, one point, gamers won’t target some of these early morning tee times. Some of the golfers won’t even have a shot at getting positional points, but if they get significantly better conditions, positional points may not matter as much.
The golfers that sit 12 & 11 back, maybe a bit aggressive, but there are plenty of good players in that area that just lost it today. Those include Hideki Matsuyama, Byeong Hun An, Kevin Na, & Billy Horschel. I’m going to focus on the guys starting on ten back because I think that they have a bit more of a chance to get inside that top 10. I’ll have a couple of shares of each of the ones I just mentioned, though.
Here are the golfers starting at ten back, thru 8 back, guys that I’ll focus on when building my lineups tonight.
Top-10 Pick
Marc Leishman ($8,600)
Hopefully, most people see that he’s gaining more strokes putting than he is tee to green, and want to fade him because of that…
Leishman has shown that in these conditions, he’s a fantastic “game manager” and can sift through the worst of the conditions. His golf swing is also tailor-made for it, as there’s not much that can go wrong with it. Only three bogeys made on the week, a big reason why he’s in the final group tomorrow.
PGA DFS Stud or Value Pick Outside of Top 10
Viktor Hovland ($7,600)
After a bad day one, it’s been back to back good days for the young Norwegian. His ball-striking has been on point again, while his around the green game is still atrocious. If he’s going to make headway on the leaderboard tomorrow, he’s going to need to hit as many greens as possible, because if he misses it, you can bet on it not being an easy par putt coming back.
Sneaky Pick Outside of Top 10
Rory Sabbatini ($7,200)
Three straight days Rory has gained tee to green, remaining consistent throughout. He’s just lacking a good putting day, something that, if it comes, will send him up the leaderboard. He has nine birdies on the week and ranks 5th in greens in regulations, something that shouldn’t be overlooked in these brutal conditions. He goes off at 11:50, a bit later than I was targeting, but he was one of the first ones to post at this number, giving him the latest tee time.
Lineup Fill-Ins
Collin Morikawa ($9,800)
Xinjun Zhang ($6,400)
Keith Mitchell ($6,700)
Rory McIlroy ($10,800)
Bryson Dechambeau ($9,500)
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