PGA DFS Picks: Strokes Gained Analysis for the Shriners Open

Every fantasy sport has its set of data that helps to project what’s going to happen, and fantasy golf is no different. In professional golf, that’s done by a metric called Strokes Gained. Created by Mark Broadie, a professor at Columbia, it measures a golfer against others on a shot-by-shot basis. That’s compiled then for daily, weekly, and yearly stats, or however long your database goes for. The database we will be working with for PGA DFS covers about 18 months’ worth of tournaments. While making PGA DFS picks is typically about recent form, we like to learn players’ strengths and weaknesses to better understand where they might perform best. Let’s dig in.

Fantasy Golf: PGA DFS Strokes Gained Analysis | Shriners Hospital for Children Open

With 144 players in the field, we have plenty of data to analyze and over 30 rounds of strokes gained data. Only three golfers don’t have a recorded start in the database.

Strokes Gained Total

Data Set: Bryson DeChambeau has been the most consistent golfer in terms of gaining strokes against the field. He’s gained at least two strokes total in 12 of 27 starts, while Webb Simpson has done it in 11 of 22. Tony Finau is the last golfer to have accomplished this feat at least 10 times, doing it in 10 of 27 events.
Eight Weeks: Three golfers in the field have performed very well in the last 10 weeks, gaining 1.25 strokes total at least four times: Hideki Matsuayma, Harris English and Jason Kokrak. Nine others have done it three times, including Finau, Simpson, Scottie Scheffler, Sebastian Munoz, Doc Redman, Denny McCarthy, Harold Varner and Zach Johnson.
Graphic: This week we will take a look at golfers that have gotten hot over the past 10 weeks in a specific strokes-gained category. DeChambeau and Matthew Wolff are the only two golfers having gained more than four strokes total against the field in the last 10 weeks

Strokes Gained Tee to Green

pga dfs shriners open

Dataset: If it’s consistency tee to green you are targeting, then these players are for you. Sergio Garcia and Matsuyama are the only two golfers that are 50% or above — 53% in Garcia’s case — in gaining at least one stroke tee to green. Honorable mentions are Paul Casey, who is 10-for-21, Emiliano Grillo, who is 12-for-26 and Varner, who is 12-for-29.
Eight Weeks: Over the last eight weeks, only four golfers have gained over 1.75 strokes tee to green three times: Finau, Scheffler, Russell Henley and Si Woo Kim.
Graphic: It is no surprise to see DeChambeau at the top here, but it is a surprise to Cameron Smith pop up, as he has gained over three strokes tee to green in a single start.

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Strokes Gained Off the Tee

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Dataset: Being consistent-to-good off the tee has been an important factor in determining results at TPC Summerlin. Nobody is as consistent off the tee over the last 35-ish events than Cameron Champ. He’s gained at least a half stroke in 72.4% of his starts. Kokrak has done it in 72%, and Garcia has done it in 70.59%. The next closest are Wolff and DeChambeau, each doing it 15 out of 27 starts.
Ten Weeks: When we zoom in on the magnifying glass, it’s no surprise to see DeChambeau and last week’s winner Garcia be the only golfers that have gained more than a stroke off the tee twice over the previous 10 weeks. Champ, Wolff, Will Gordon, Luke List, Max Homa and Wyndham Clark have each done it once.
Graphic: The most surprising name to me on the graphic, at least in the top 10 or so, is Beau Hossler. Known typically for his putting, Hossler has gained off the tee in five straight starts, including the 1.56 he gained off there at the 3M Open. Clark, List and Keith Mitchell are other names that are encouraging to see here.

Strokes Gained on Approach

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Dataset: If any of these golfers I’m about to mention get hot with the driver and put every ball in play, you can suspect will have a more quality birdie looks than the rest of the field. Casey, Grillo, Simpson, Henley, Collin Morikawa, Cameron Tringale and Patrick Cantlay have all gained at least a half stroke with their approaches in 55% or more of their starts.
Eight Weeks: Kevin Streelman and Talor Gooch are the only ones to have accomplished that same feat (0.5 shots gained on approach) four times over the last 10 weeks. A bunch of others have three, including Redman, Varner, Chez Reavie, Scott Stallings, Brendan Steele and Mark Hubbard.
Graphic: No one has been as hot with their irons as Finau has been, gaining 2.43 at the 3M. He should have won that week, but that’s not the first time we’ve said that. He’s also the only one to have gained over 1.5 three times over the past 10 weeks, doing so over four rounds each time. Matt Kuchar, on the other hand, only did it over two rounds at the U.S. Open before missing the cut. The same happened with Scott Piercy at the PGA Championship.

Strokes Gained Around the Green

Dataset: Three golfers have been able to navigate the greenside better than anyone else, gaining at least a stroke six different times in this data set: Keegan Bradley (6-for-29), Brian Harman (6-for-34) and Fabian Gomez (6-for-23). Others with five include Matsuyama, Byeong Hun An, Ryan Armour and Dylan Fritelli.
Eight Weeks: English has been the most consistent over the last 10 weeks, gaining 0.25 strokes six times, the only golfer with more than five. Eight more have done it three times.

Strokes Gained Putting

Dataset: McCarthy isn’t showing any signs of giving up his title as best putter anytime soon, having gained more than 1.25 strokes nine times in his last 30 events. Four have seven: Hossler, Gooch, Andrew Putnam and Patton Kizzire. Simpson, Kevin Na and Maverick McNealy have six.
Eight Weeks: This is the second of three times that we’ll mention McNealy in this section. He’s gained over one stroke twice over the last 10 weeks, with Simpson, Hossler, Peter Malnati, Louis Oosthuizen and Chesson Hadley also accomplishing it twice.
Graphic: We know McNealy is a good putter, but, when he’s hot, he’s really good. He and Malnati are the only two golfers to have averaged more than 2.5 strokes gained putting in a week. DeChambeau is right on that number, with Zach Johnson, Morikawa and Kevin Chappell also checking in with weeks in which they averaged more than two strokes putting.

Strokes Gained Sheet

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Author

Jason Rouslin

Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].