PGA DFS Picks: Strokes Gained Anlaysis for the Tour Championship

With only 30 golfers in this week’s PGA DFS field for the TOUR Championship, I’ll write a quick blurb about everyone’s performance over the last 10 weeks in terms of how they gained their strokes and how many.

Dustin Johnson: Johnson has had three incredible starts in a row, with one bad one mixed in. That gives him 10.4 total strokes gained in the last 10 weeks for an average of 1.733 per tournament. That breaks down to a half a stroke off the tee, 0.34 with the putter and 0.90 with the approaches, while matching the field with his around-the-green game.
Jon Rahm: Rahm is the only golfer that averaged more strokes gained than Johnson per start over the last 10 weeks. He comes in at 1.91 per start or 13.43 in total. Rahm reaches that number by gaining 0.79 off the tee, 0.18 with his approaches, a half a stroke around the green and about a half a stroke putting. He’s also gained strokes putting in six of seven starts in this 10-week span.
Justin Thomas: After his missed cut, Thomas went on a four-week stretch where he gained 9.66 total strokes. He has cooled off the last few weeks, only gaining a total of 0.44. He’s been mediocre off the tee and with the approaches. Also, he either putted bad or chipped bad on alternating weeks for the last two. The good thing is he’s only lost off the tee once in the last six starts and zero of six starts with his approaches.
Webb Simpson: This should come as no surprise, but Simpson has gained 3.42 strokes putting over the last 10 weeks, accounting for over 40% of his total strokes gained. The other nice thing about Simpson is he doesn’t really get himself into much trouble with any part of his game. He’s gaining strokes against the field in all four measured categories over the last 10 weeks. All of it equals about 1.4 total strokes gained per start.
Collin Morikawa: The upside with Morikawa is tremendous here, as he gained more than 3.5 strokes twice in the last 10 weeks. When he’s on, Morikawa has all the tools in the bag, but his strength over these 10 weeks has been his off-tee game, which is a bit of surprise given how good he typically is with the irons.
Daniel Berger: Berger is continuing to find leaderboards with a solid off the tee game. He has gained half of his strokes from the tee ball over the last 10 weeks.
Harris English: The average of 1.6 strokes gained total per start for English over the last 10 weeks is very impressive. Almost 40% of it is coming from his flat stick, however, averaging almost 0.70 strokes gained per round. His second-best stat has been his approach game, having only lost once in the last six starts. That came last week at the BMW Championship.
Bryson DeChambeau: DeChambeau has gained a total of 6.45 strokes over the last 10 weeks but has gained 8.28 off the tee. That obviously means he’s struggling elsewhere, including 5.23 strokes lost against the field with his approaches. Hopefully that’s not a trend that continues this week at the TOUR Championship.
Sungjae Im: Five golfers have lost strokes against the field over the last 10 weeks, and Im is one of them, losing a total of 1.81. Like DeChambeau, Im has really struggled off the tee, losing over 4.6 strokes. He hasn’t been able to make up that difference, gaining mildly in the other three categories.
Hideki Matsuyama: Matsuyama has only had one bad start where he lost 3.5 strokes against the field. Outside of that start, he’s been able to gain at least one stroke total in five of his six other starts, one gaining 0.89 in the sixth. Not surprisingly, he’s lost almost three strokes with the putter over these starts. His around-the-green game has been the best performer, gaining practically 4.5 strokes.
Brendon Todd: The highest ratio of any golfer in the field, Todd has gained 5.7 strokes putting and a total of 7.1 strokes over the last 10 weeks. That means his putting accounts for 80% of his total strokes gained.
Rory McIlroy: The approaches have really held McIlroy back, as he has gained over a stroke only once in the last six starts and lost in two of six. That’s very unlike him. His short game hasn’t been good either, losing both around the green and putting over the last 10 weeks.
Patrick Reed: One of two golfers with nine starts over the past 10 weeks (Im being the other), Reed has gained a total of 7.92 strokes. He’s gaining in all four categories but only mildly with his putter, approaches and around-the-green game, which could hold him back from a big finish at the TOUR Championship.
Xander Schauffele: Schauffele ranks fourth on the list, gaining on average of 1.63 strokes per round against the field. He did that by gaining in all four measured categories, with a heavy emphasis on off the tee. If the rest of the game follows suit, he could be in for a big finish at the TOUR Championship.
Sebastian Munoz: Munoz has been much better the last two weeks, gaining a total of 2.97 strokes. This past week, 1.3 of those strokes came around the green. However, he has done well with ball striking, gaining in four out of the last five weeks.

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Lanto Griffin: Griffin’s strokes gained attributes are highlighted by four starts where he gained over 1.25 total. His approaches have done most of that work, as he has gained almost four strokes over the last 10.
Scottie Scheffler: Speaking of good ball striking, Scheffler is working off five straight starts where he’s gained strokes ball striking. His putting has been his only low spot, as he has lost in two out of the last four events.
Joaquin Niemann: Speaking of lousy putting, before last week Niemann had lost strokes putting in five straight starts. For the most part, the rest of his game is there; he has gained strokes ball striking in seven of eight events. He does struggle around the green at times, losing almost two strokes over the last 10 weeks.
Tyrrell Hatton: Hatton in one of only two golfers to have competed five times over the last 10 weeks (Berger is the other). Over those starts, he’s lost strokes against the field in two of them and gained in three. He was over 0.75 in all three where he gained. He has gone cold with the putter, losing almost two strokes over the last 10 weeks.
Tony Finau: Finau and Rahm are the only two golfers in the field that have gained at least two strokes four different times over the last 10 weeks. He has a couple of bad starts mixed in, but for the most part, Finau has looked good. He’s gaining just shy of one stroke per round ball striking in the same time frame.
Kevin Kisner: Coming in on a heater, Kisner has gained strokes in five straight events. In three of them, he gained over 1.78 total strokes. He’s relied on a very hot putter and a stellar iron game to gain.
Abraham Ancer: After a fantastic start to the resumed season, Ancer’s play has dropped off dramatically. He has failed to gain at least 1.5 strokes total in his last five starts. His approach game has been letting him down, as he has lost almost a quarter of a stroke per round during the previous 10 weeks.
Ryan Palmer: If you take out that one terrible start at the Workday where he lost almost seven strokes to the field, Palmer’s numbers look good. His approach game has been the best part, as he has gained over a stroke in three of his last five events.
Kevin Na: Na has struggled these last four events, failing to gain 0.75 total strokes on average in each of them. He’s also lost in two of them, with his putter and off-tee game holding him back more recently.
Marc Leishman: Leishman is responsible for possibly the ugliest two tournaments I have on record. He has lost an average of -1.71 over the last 10 weeks. All parts of the game have looked bad.
Cameron Smith: Smith has played three straight events where he’s gained strokes against the field. That’s without the help of his putter as well, where he’s lost in four out of his last five starts. That’s sure to change this week.
Viktor Hovland: The last four starts are not nearly as good as the first four of the 10-week span. In the first four, Hovland didn’t lose strokes to the field in any of them. Having lost two out of the last four times he’s teed it up, Hovland hasn’t really paid off.
Mackenzie Hughes: One of the most surprising things in this whole analysis is the fact that Hughes has gained strokes against the field in all seven starts. He’s 7-for-7. He and Schauffele are the only two golfers that can say that. Hughes’ short game has been the most significant catalyst, as he’s gained almost 1.7 per round.
Cameron Champ: That is quite the opposite for Champ. His short game has been terrible, losing 0.4 per round. His off-tee game is fine, but his irons are bad, losing him almost 0.67 per round.
Billy Horschel: Horschel had a nice run to get to East Lake, gaining more than 1.93 total strokes three times over the last 10 weeks. His putter has been his best asset, gaining him about a half a stroke on average.

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Author

Jason Rouslin

Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].