PGA DFS Picks: Sunday Showdown at the 102nd PGA Championship

This column is a quick-hitter article to give you the stats you need to make informed PGA DFS picks for your DraftKings + FanDuel daily fantasy lineups and give you a couple of recommendations for the PGA Championship. On a typical showdown contest, DraftKings will offer upwards of $50,000 to first for rounds 2 and 3 showdown and sometimes up to $100,000 for the final-round contests. They also provide weekend-long contests that have been offering $25,000 to first for most weekends. Lastly, FanDuel has also tried to get into the weekend-long and final round contests, offering $10,000 and $5,000 to first.

Previous Round Commentary

Justin Thomas gave all golf fans something to get excited about, as he started the day at +1 and got to -4 by the eighth hole. Contrary to him, his playing partner Jordan Spieth played the exact same seven holes at 4-over, as Thomas had an eight-shot lead on Spieth for the day. Thomas’s run ended there, however, on eight, where he couldn’t get up and down for par and ended up 3-over for his remaining 11 holes.

A few others got off to good starts, like Jon Rahm and Rory McIlory, but both of them faded like Thomas did. One that didn’t disappear was Collin Morikawa, whose two bogeys in the middle of the back nine didn’t stop him from posting a solid 5-under 65. He sit just two back of Dustin Johnson. He’s just one of 18 golfers that are within four of the lead heading into Sunday.

The Expected Weather for Tomorrow’s Round

The exact same weather we’ve had the last two days is expected again for Sunday.

Previous Round Stat Review

Driving accuracy didn’t get any better in round 1, but by looking at who is in first, a guy hitting 42% of his fairways, maybe it wasn’t as imperative as people thought to begin the week. The field is only hitting them at a clip just above 50%, while the greens are only getting hit at a 58% clip.

Bogey Free rounds in Round 3:

Patrick Cantlay (36 straight holes bogey-free)

BOB Leaders Through For Round 3

Dustin Johnson and Scottie Scheffler (8)
Ian Poulter, Bryson DeChambeau, Collin Morikawa (7)
Cameron Champ, Justin Thomas, Shane Lowry ( 6)

For the full list of stats, click here!

Strokes Gained Ball Striking vs. Putting

Matthew Wolff’s putter finally found some traction in round 3, gaining almost a quarter of a stroke. In contrast, Luke List’s putter absolutely deserted him in the third round, losing nearly three strokes. He takes the mantle as top golfer in ball striking/putting discrepancy, while Wolff checks in second. Keith Mitchell, Daniel Berger and Paul Casey round out the top five.

Strokes Gained Ball Striking Round Differential

Kevin Kisner was the big winner on the day, finding his ball-striking stride and gaining almost four strokes more in round 3 than he did in round 2. Kurt Kitayama, Phil Mickelson, Webb Simpson and Harold Varner III also performed much better in round 3 than in round 2. Patrick Cantlay wasn’t far behind either, showing that as this tournament progresses, the better his getting. I’m all in on Cantlay for tomorrow’s slate.

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Lock Time

10 a.m. EST

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DraftKings:

DraftKings is offering $200,000 to first with $600,000 guaranteed for round 4

FanDuel:

$10,0000 to first and $50,000 guaranteed for the final round contest.

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General Slate Strategy

Since there’s heaps of cash on the line tomorrow, it felt imperative to bring up yet again that there are finishing points assigned to golfers for tomorrow’s round. That typically bubbles the ownership of the top 15 or so golfers, so if your looking to create some differential, look down the leaderboard a bit.

Top 10 Breakdown and Pick(s)

Cameron Champ is here to stay, or so it seems. Both he and Tour rookie Scottie Scheffler are the closest to Dustin Johnson,sitting just one back. Johnson incredibly has gotten it done with his putting, leading the entire field in strokes gained putting this week. Casey,one of the big movers from Friday, had a seven-footer for par on 18 to remain 2 back and was able to make it after a terrible second shot. Morikawa was the low man and big mover today, other than Johnson, carding a 5-under 65 and is in a tie for fourth with Brooks Koepka.

Collin Morikawa ($9,000)

Since Spieth is so bad now, I need to go all-in on Morikawa and Cantlay before people claim them as their own. Although, by ownership percentages, it seems most have already caught onto them. Still, Morikawa at $9,000 and playing incredibly well again is going to be hard to fade, as is Johnson, who is only $300 more. There will undoubtedly be some ownership bubbles up top, and picking one who is low-owned that winds up in the top 10 with a good round tomorrow will be the most critical roster spot. Morikawa, though, gives that win equity up top, and with how good his ball striking has been, you know he’ll have plenty of birdie looks tomorrow.

Stud or Value Pick Outside of Top 10

Patrick Cantlay ($8,700)

Cantlay has gone bogey-free for 36 holes in a major. If that’s not an indication of form, I’m not sure what is. He’s been terrible with his putter, and had he not been, he’d be right there testing Johnson for the lead possibly. Still, only six back of the lead and only four back of the top 10, Cantlay will need 64 to get there. With how he’s been playing, though, I think he has it in him.

Sneaky Pick Outside of Top 10

Keith Mitchell ($6,100)

With all the cameras on him today, playing with Tiger Woods, Mitchell severely outperformed the best player of all time. He putted well, which has been a theme the last little bit, but what’s important to see is the ball striking coming around. He gained over two strokes for the day, putting him into position to nab his first ever top 20 in a major. One more good putting day and a solid ball-striking day and he’ll pay off this meager salary in a quick second.

Lineup Fill-Ins

Kevin Kisner ($6,900)

Adam Scott ($7,600)

Victor Perez ($6,000)

Matthew Wolff ($8,000)

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Author

Jason Rouslin

Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].