PGA DFS Picks: This column is a quick-hitter article to give you the stats you need to make informed decisions for your PGA DFS lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft and give you a couple of recommendations. Not a member of Awesemo+? Sign up HERE to get access to Awesemo’s premium projections and rankings for DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo, and FantasyDraft, as well as Jason Rouslin’s in-tournament models.
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Tournament Update:
DraftKings is offering $3,000 to first for the final round slate.Â
Sunday WeatherÂ
The weather is similar to yesterday.
SweatsheetÂ
PGA DFS Final RoundÂ
An average score of just under par, 69.56, shows that the wind died down, but not completely. As tough as Waliaie has played this week, it still should smash the Vegas over/under for winning score at -9. Brendan Steele, who hasn’t had a top 10 in almost two years (the 2018 Waste Management Open), leads the way. Cameron Smith got hot very late, birdieing four of his last five to get within three of Steele at -9. Kevin Kisner is the closest Tournament of Champions competitor to Steele and remember, a golfer from the TOC has won here five times in a row.
PGA DFS Statistical AnalysisÂ
Staying on Kisner for a bit, he stated in the post-round press conference that he just couldn’t get the putter going before a few dropped in round three. He’s not wrong, as he averaged just about 2.34 strokes ball striking over the first three rounds. Ryan Palmer is the only golfer in the top 10 to average more strokes ball striking than Kisner.
Joaquin Niemann, all of a sudden, cannot putt, losing strokes in each of the last two rounds. Yesterday, he really fell apart on the greens, losing over three strokes. We don’t want to see him regress to last year’s performance on the greens. He leads the SG: BS vs. SG: P. Jimmy Walker, Nick Taylor, Hideki Matsuyama and Harry Higgs have all gained at least 2.45 more strokes on average with their ball striking over putting.
Back to the leader Steele for a minute, his putting performance is darn impressive. He’s averaging 3.19 strokes per round and has gained over nine since the start of the tournament. The second-place golfer, Cam Smith, is averaging 2.35 per round with only Henrik Norlander and Corey Conners the only other golfers averaging at least two per round.
For the full list of statistics, click here.
PGA DFS Final Round PicksÂ
Top-10 Pick
The only non stud left outside of the top 10 now is Matsuyama, who is playing much better over the last two rounds, for what it’s worth. Outside of Cam Smith, who is my top rooting interest for the day, I’ll be internally rooting for another Cam, Cameron Davis. He battled back after an incredible silly mistake on the eighth hole, missing a less-than-one-foot putt after being mad about missing the first one. He slowly recovered throughout the day and sits in the top 10.
Kevin Kisner ($8,700)
As a non- week-long cardholder, I am most nervous about Kisner. He’s a bulldog, and I wouldn’t want to face him on Sunday to win a golf tournament. He’s one of the best putters on tour and had not found the putting stroke before yesterday. That’s a bad scene for anyone chasing and above him today. He’s gained over two strokes each of the last two days on his approaches and clearly feels comfortable in Oahu. Look for Kisner to keep the streak of Tournament of Champions competitors who win the Sony Open.
PGA DFS Stud or Value Pick outside of Top-10
Patrick Rodgers ($7,200)
One of five golfers to have shot under par in every round, Rodgers has relied on a very hot putter to get to where he is now. But today is a new day, and he’s got a chance at a top 10, and all we need is some semblance of an iron game. He’s lost strokes — in fact, a total of 1.5 for the three days on his approaches — so obviously, he’s struggling a bit there. I’m betting on an uptick and, in the process, getting some salary relief.
Sneaky Pick Outside of Top 10
My sneaky pick didn’t work out so well yesterday, as Bramlett struggled to keep his form. I’ll keep the same strategy so I can get all the studs in I want.
Rob Oppenheim ($6,400)
Although our tee-to-green numbers looks rather poor from yesterday, he’s had a bit of a roller coaster week with it. In round two, he gained over two strokes where yesterday, he lost 1,79. I’m betting on a recovery in that part of his game, and a continued hot putter to climb him into the top 10.
PGA DFS Lineup Fill-InsÂ
Cameron Smith ($8,800)
Charles Howell III ($8,900)
Ben Martin ($6,100)Â