PGA DFS Picks: Free Awesemo Grades, Values RBC Heritage, DraftKings

This week’s venue shares a lot of similarities with last week’s, but it also contains several of its own little quirks. Harbour Town Golf Links is an original Pete Dye design that plays at 7,099 yards, features some of the smallest Bermuda greens on Tour and plays as a traditional Par 71. While the bombers were able to cut several corners off the tee at Colonial last week, it’s unlikely they’ll have as much free reign here. Harbour Town features more severe doglegs and fairway bunkers that always cause players to dial things back off the tee. The end result is that overall driving distance for the week tends to be down 10-15 yards here sersus the average Tour venue. The course does have three par 5’s, two of which are very easy, and the big hitters will undoubtedly benefit from the extra scoring opportunity, which could drive scoring in PGA DFS this week. The venue has played as the 19th- and 11th- toughest venue on Tour the past couple years, although the new summer date may allow it to avoid poor weather. Players need both solid good iron games and great short game skill to overcome the small greens in play this week.

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Course Stats and Info

Par 71, 7,099 yards
New 2020 Summer date this year (generally played on weekend after Masters). Played as the 11th-toughest course last season to a +0.170 O/U par average score
TifEagle Bermudagrass greens
Contains 54 bunkers and 17 water hazards. Though water isn’t in play on every hole, it is prominent throughout the course.

Putting Splits

We’re back to a traditional Southeastern venue, which means we’re back on Bermuda greens. Here’s a look at some of the best and worst Bermuda grass putters in the field, relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.

Negative Bermuda putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

Jordan Spieth: +0.3 on Bermuda, +35 on all other surfaces
Patrick Reed +7 on Bermuda, +34 on all other surfaces
Adam Hadwin +3 on Bermuda, +29 on all other surfaces

*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost

Positive Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

Sam Burns: +44 on Bermuda, +7 on all other surfaces
Matthew Fitzpatrick: +33 on Bermuda, -10.5 on all other surfaces
Harris English, +31 on Bermuda, +10 on all other surfaces
Byeong-Hun An -20 on bentgrass, -45 on all other surfaces (hey at least he’s not bottom 1% on Bermuda, just bottom 5%)

*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost

PGA DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel

Victor Hovland: Grades: B; Values: A, B

Hovland didn’t do much in the first couple rounds last week but finished strong. The 22-year-old gained over 2.5 strokes on his approaches in the final round at Colonial and was able to gain strokes around the tricky green complexes there for the week as well. The fact Hovland had a decent week around the greens is significant as he had previously lost strokes ATG in 10 straight starts prior. Despite the solid finish, Hovland’s price has come down this week on DraftKings to $7,600, where he grades out as an A value in Awesemo’s rankings. The worry with Hovland will undoubtedly center around his lack of experience at Harbour Town, but he’s shown to be more than proficient at other tricky coastal venues already, posting a tied-12th at the US Open last season (Pebble Beach) and a win at the seaside Coco Beach venue in Puerto Rico. After slumping to begin the year, he’s now gained 2.9 and 3.5 strokes on approaches in his last two starts and seems to be rounding into the same form that saw him contend almost every week last summer. Getting in early here at a great price, and before he becomes the weekly chalk play again, seems advisable.

The Stats:

Fifth in SG: Approach stats over the last 50 rounds
Has only lost strokes off the tee once in 15 starts where SG: OTT was measured
Second in proximity from 175-200 yards over last 50 rounds

Projected Ownership: DraftKings: 8.3% | FanDuel: 6.8%

Hideki Matsuyama: Grades: A; Values: B

Matsuyama will be playing at Harbour Town for the first time in over five years, but there’s every reason to think he should find success here this season. Ranked 11^th in the field in SG: APP and fourth in SG: ATG over his past 50 rounds, he’ll be one of the players who should benefit from the smaller greens which emphasize both great iron play and solid around-the-green play. Despite all that, it’s worth noting the negative here too. Matsuyama chose to sit out last week so we’re not sure where his game is and he ranks 133^rd in SG: Putting over the last 50 rounds. Still, we saw several players who had been in great form before the break come out hot last week and Matsuyama was certainly playing well prior to the stoppage, recording a 63 at TPC Sawgrass — another Pete Dye designed venue — in his last round. Unlike Hovland, he’s not a great value, especially on DraftKings where he’s priced $900 to $1,000 more than Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka, but he grades out as a better play overall and should have depressed ownership due to his price.

The Stats:

Has gained over five strokes tee to green in five of his last seven starts on Tour
Ranks fourth in around-the-green play over the past 50 rounds
Fifth in par-4 efficiency from 450-500 yards (last 50 rounds); sixth from 400-450 yards (last 50 rounds)

Projected Ownership: DraftKings: 14% | FanDuel: 15.6%

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Low-Owned GPP Flier

Russell Henley: Grades: D, C; Values: C

Like Matsuyama, Henley will also be making his first start since the Tour went on hiatus this week. That fact alone makes him somewhat of a risky play here, but the upside is that if he displays anything near to the form he showed prior to the stoppage, we could be in for a good week. Ranked 17^th in the field in SG: Total over the last 50 rounds on Pete Dye designs, Henley’s iron game was reaching peak levels of inferno in his last couple of starts, as he had gained 3.7 strokes on approach at the Genesis, and followed that up with an even better week at the Honda where he gained an incredible 10.6 strokes on the field. Despite missing three cuts to start the year, Henley showed improvement around the greens in 2020, gaining strokes in that area in three of his last four starts prior to the break. The three-time Tour winner will be playing Harbour Town for the fourth time in five years this week and carries the type of slate-breaking upside daily fantasy players should be targeting in large-field GPPs.

Projected Ownership: DraftKings: 2.13%| FanDuel: 3.14%

Bonus PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings Top-Five Under Five

I am targeting five players here that I ultimately think will end up under (or close) to sub-5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We’re searching for boom-or-bust players here with an almost 100% focus on upside.

Louis Oosthuizen ($7,700)

Giving him one more chance here to get things going. Solid off the tee at Charles Schwab — gained 3.5 off the tee — which I take as a sign he’s fully healthy again, as he was bleeding strokes with the driver in his last two starts prior to the break.
Made the cut at Colonial despite a poor week with irons and putter, so even a small improvement in either area could lead to a top-20 or better.
Tied for seventh at Harbour Town the last time he played here in 2015 when he gained 6.4 strokes on approach.

Bud Cauley ($7,200)

14^th in this field in SG: TOT at Harbour Town over the past five years, despite only playing here three times during that span,
Opened with a 63 here in 2017 (tied-ninth) and currently ranks 24^th in SG: APP and ninth in SG: ATG over the last 50 rounds,

Russell Henley ($7,100)

—see above

Doc Redmon ($6,400)

26^th in SG: APP stats in the field this week over the past 50 rounds,
Has only lost strokes on approach once in his eight 2020 PGA starts, and has also been surprisingly consistent with the putter, gaining over a stroke with that club in four of eight starts in 2020,
Looked a little rusty around the greens last week, but gained over four strokes with his irons at Colonial against a tough field,

Cameron Tringale ($6,400)

Another player whose price seems lower than it should be due to not teeing it up last week. Enters this week 15^th in SG: APP and 24^th in SG: ATG stats over the last 50 rounds,
Won’t be punished for poor off-tee play at Hilton Head as much as at other venues, and gained over four strokes on appoach in last two starts before break,