The Approach: PGA DFS Picks Based off Awesemo’s Rankings for the Rocket Mortgage Classic

The PGA Tour heads back to Detroit this year for the second edition of the Rocket Mortgage Classic. The venue will be the same as last season as the Donald Ross-designed Detroit Golf Club will be hosting. The venue was created back in 1916 but has seen extensive renovations since then and underwent a massive overhaul to be ready to host the Tour long-term. One of the main differences between this course and the ones we’ve seen the last few weeks is that Detroit plays as a regular par 72 with four par 5’s on the course. Each of the par 5’s measure over 550 yards in length with the par-5 fourth hole playing up to 634 yards. Still, even with the added length the par 5’s played as the four easiest holes on the course last season, so taking advantage will be key.

The venue carries somewhat similar greens to last week in that they are predominantly bentgrass with some poa grown in and again feature easy-to-hit fairways that gave us heightened driving accuracy stats across the board last year. Nate Lashley won here in 2019 (our first and only glimpse at the course) mainly through a solid week with the irons (+5.3 strokes) and an insanely hot putter (+9.3)


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Rocket Mortgage Course Stats and Info

• Par 72, 7,330 yards
• Cut makers hit 64% of fairways vs. 60% Tour average; Driving Distance was also up vs. regular stop
• Bentgrass greens mixed with poa (similar to last week); Donald Ross designed venue with little water
• Four par 5’s, all over 550 yards in length but they still ranked as the four easiest holes on the course


Putting Splits

We’re up north again this week and Detroit Golf Club’s greens will again have predominately bentgrass greens with some poa in the mix. Similar to last week, we’ll again look at a bent/poa combo-split for this week. Here’s a look at some of the best and worst bent/poa grass putters in the field, relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.

Negative Bentgrass/Poa putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Patton Kizzire: +2 on bent/poa, +47 on all other surfaces
2. Sam Burns: +8 on bent/poa, +44 on all other surfaces
3. J.T. Poston: +6 on bent/poa, +33 on all other surfaces
*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost

Positive Bentgrass/Poa Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Brandt Snedeker: +45 on bent/poa, +13 on all other surfaces
2. Maverick McNealy: +24 on bent/poa, +4 on all other surfaces
3. Adam Hadwin: +29 on bent/poa, +5 on all other surfaces


DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel

Hideki Matsuyama: Grades: A+, Values: B, A

I’m fine going back to the well for one more week of pain with Matsuyama in the Motor City. The weakened field with fewer studs to choose from here means ownership in GPPs is going to be more concentrated than we’ve seen of late at the top on the field, and those who have been “playing well” — aka haven’t bulldozed people’s lineups of late — will be the most popular. Matsuyama was objectively terrible in two rounds at the RBC Heritage, but we can attribute a lot of that misfortune to a putter that lost him 5.2 strokes on the Bermuda greens there. Historically, though, bentgrass has been his best surface and he displayed a liking for these Detroit GC greens last season, gaining over a stroke on them on his way to a tied-13th finish. Matsuyama still ranks second in this field in Shots Gained: Ball Striking over the last 24 rounds and is fourth in par-5 efficiency from 550-600 yard over that same span. The fact he grades out higher than Viktor Hovland for Awesemo, who could still end up higher-owned than him in spots, makes him a great pivot play in my mind this week.

The Stats:

• First in SG: App and second in SG: BS over last 24 rounds
• Fourth in par efficiency from 550-600 yards over last 24 rounds
• +11.9 Strokes Putting on bentgrass greens over last 50 rounds

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 17.7%| FanDuel: 26.4%


Christiaan Bezuidenhout: Grades: B, Values: B

Grading out with solid B scores in both categories, the South African and now two-time winner on the European Tour has looked remarkably comfortable on the PGA Tour in 2020. After recording an impressive tied-18th finish at the tough Bay Hill back in March, he followed that up with a tied-28th at Harbour Town two weeks ago where he made 23 birdies throughout the week. A consistent iron player, Bezuidenhout’s putter and short game have also shown the propensity for going off at times which is exactly the formula that last year’s winner used to overcome the field here. I could excuse anyone for wanting to go with the more well-known names in his range (like Lucas Glover or Doc Redman) but those players have been out-performing their historical strokes gained projections of late, while Bezuidenhout has remained steady. And he still nearly matched both aforementioned men in finishing position at the RBC. Ranked 45th in the world and looking closer and closer to being a fixture on the PGA, this week looks like a solid time to deploy Bezuidenhout in DFS.

The Stats:

• Has gained strokes putting and on approach in four straight events coming into this week
• 46th-ranked player in the world, yet cheaper than several players who rank well below him in the OWGR
• Two wins already and a third in the very competitive BMW PGA Championship on Euro Tour last season

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 10.5%| FanDuel: 11.6%


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Low-Owned PGA DFS GPP flier

Aaron Wise: Grades: C, Values: A, B

Wise, the former Byron Nelson Champion from 2018, sports an A-grade this week in Awesemo’s PGA DraftKings value rankings, and projection-wise he is only outscored by one player in the value category. Wise’s recent finishes may not look all that great, but four rounds in the 60’s last week at the Travelers was a great sign that he may finally be finding some consistency. The 24-year-old has also shown a propensity for saving some his best golf for the weaker-field events as both his win at the Byron Nelson and his tied-third last fall at the Bermuda Championship came against watered-down fields, competition similar to what he’ll face here in Detroit. While his irons have yet to take off, Wise’s consistency off the tee should afford him a ton of birdie opportunities, and it’s worth noting that he ranked fifth in par-5 scoring for the week here last year, tied in that category with eventual winner Nate Lashley. If Wise can squeeze out a made cut, he could easily take off over the weekend and his price here makes him a solid upside target.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 6.6%| FanDuel: 4.4%


Bonus: DraftKings Top Five under Five PGA DFS Picks

I am targeting five players here that I ultimately think will end up under (or close) to sub-5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We’re searching for boom-or-bust players with an almost 100% focus on upside.

Kurt Kitayama ($8,100)

• Won a late Monday Q and was added to the DraftKings pool late. Also mixed in a tough range with Redman, Glover and the aforementioned Bezuidenhout; will keep his ownership very low
• Massive power off the tee and should benefit from the extra par 5’s in play this week
• Pure scorer and aggressive player, which is great for DraftKings scoring

Si Woo Kim ($7,200)

• Has destroyed the other regular Donald Ross venue on Tour in Sedgefield
• Gained over two strokes in every single category last week except on the greens. Likely would have cracked the top five and would be a more popular play this week if green play was better

Patton Kizzire ($6,900)

• Another player who popped out of nowhere last week, gaining over five strokes on his approaches at Travelers
• Hasn’t come close to gaining that much on approach since the 2018 Tour Championship, so would expect to see some continuation
• Streaky player, and best results have come against weaker fields

Richy Werenski ($6,500)

• Good Donald Ross course history that includes a tied-10th at the Wyndham in 2017.
• Gained strokes everywhere outside of the greens last week; his tied-48th could have been much better
• Player who has popped multiple times in weak field events, including third-place finishes at OHL Classic (2018) and Greenbrier (2019)

Kristoffer Ventura ($6,400)

• Super streaky player who won twice on Korn Ferry Tour last year while also missing four cuts in 11 starts
• Finished tied for second three weeks on KFT and was starting to look more comfortable right before the break after horrid start to year
• Pure gut play, but good talent and big hitter off the tee who is showing signs of possibly making an end-of-year move


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