PGA DFS Picks: Awesemo's Rankings for The Travelers Championship

For the third week in a row, the players will be on a less than par-72 track that plays somewhat short for Tour standards. TPC River Highlands was redesigned by Pete Dye in 1982 and has hosted this week’s event since the mid-1980s. The venue plays as a traditional par-70 that plays at 6,841 yards and features a blend of bentgrass and Poa annua greens. As a shorter venue, it still places emphasis on second shots and putting, but TPC River Highlands also contains some of the easiest-to-hit fairways on Tour, with driving accuracy numbers here well above the average Tour standard. The venue may be older, but it isn’t nearly as claustrophobic as last week’s venue which should give an advantage to big hitters off the tee.

The course only have two par 5’s, but there’s also a drivable par 4 (15th) which will be a must-birdie for the players during the week and should also yield some eagles. Water is also heavily in play down the stretch on the last par 3 and par 5. This is another venue where power can be de-emphasized a touch (although not as much as last week) so don’t be shocked if we get another crowded leaderboard with a big portion of players having a legit shot at popping for the win.

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Travelers Course Stats and Info

• Par 70, 6,841 yards
• Driving Accuracy percentages much higher than average Tour stop
• Bentgrass greens mixed with poa, four water hazards (mostly back nine) and 69 bunkers
• Busiest distance for approach shots has been between 150-175 yards

Putting Splits

We’re venturing up north this week and will have some poa in the mix. TPC River Highlands greens are a blend of bentgrass and poa so we’ve looked at a bent/poa combo-split for this week. Here’s a look at some of the best and worst bent/poa grass putters in the field, relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these; they aren’t the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.

Negative Bentgrass/Poa putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Matthew Fitzpatrick: -1.4 on bent/poa, +35 on all other surfaces
2. J.T. Poston: +4 on bent/poa, +33 on all other surfaces
3. Dustin Johnson: -11 on bent/poa, +16 on all other surfaces
*+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost

Positive Bentgrass/Poa Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

1. Patrick Reed: +41 on bent/poa, +6 on all other surfaces
2. Jordan Spieth: +40 on bent/poa, +1 on all other surfaces
3. Justin Rose: +28 on bent/poa, +12 on all other surfaces

Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel

Jason Day: Grades: B, Values: A

I’m going to call on bottom on Day this week and, quite frankly, the deeper into the week we go the more confident I get in this pick. The Aussie has missed the cut in both of his first two events but there were a couple of good signs last week that he may start producing soon. Multiple reports have cited him as “looking healthy,” which is a great thing anytime Day is involved, and the stats bear out that his ball striking wasn’t that far off last week. Day gained just under a stroke in both rounds 1 and 2 off the tee at Harbour Town, which was a big improvement over his first start at Colonial, but he was uncharacteristically sloppy with his putter and ended up missing the cut anyways.

I don’t expect Day’s putter to stay cold forever, though, and his record at TPC River Highlands is solid with tied-12th and tied-eighth finishes here the last two years. And it’s worth noting that he came here last year with little form to suddenly gain over six strokes on the week with his irons. Despite the struggles he’s endured the last couple seasons, this is still a player with immense upside who’s putted well on all surfaces over his career. If he starts well, he could break slates this week considering his suppressed salary.

The Stats

– Gained 0.7 and 0.9 strokes off the tee last week in rounds 1 and 2
– Tied-eighth and tied-12th at TPC River Highlands the past two seasons; gained over six strokes with his irons last year
– Has never missed the cut in three straight tournaments on the PGA

Projected PGA DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 6.1%| FanDuel: 4.2%

Justin Rose: Grades: A, Values: B

Rose doesn’t grade out as the same kind of bargain that Day is, but then again, he’s also played much better than him over the past two weeks. The Englishman begin his restart by landing a tied-third finish at Colonial where his birdie attempt at the 72nd hole just missed to keep him out of a playoff. While his putter carried him at Colonial, the story was completely flipped last week as he ranked fourth in tee-to-green stats last week, gaining +3.4 strokes with his irons and +2.9 off the tee. Rose hasn’t played TPC River Highlands in over five years, but he was quite dominant here early in his career, landing tied-ninth (2010) and tied-13th (2013) finishes and has shot rounds of 64 and 62 at this week’s venue.

Rose has tended to enjoy these older classic tests more as his career has progressed, picking up a win recently at Colonial, and it’s also worth noting that his last three wins on the PGA came on either bentgrass or poa greens. Still quite affordable on both main DFS sites, he’s a target for me this week as others try to play the guessing game with the more expensive young players.

The Stats

– Gained over 3.4 strokes with irons at RBC Heritage
– 11th in Strokes Gained: Putting on poa/bent over the last 50 rounds
– Shot 64, 62 to open at TPC River Highlands back in 2010

Projected PGA DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 14.3%| FanDuel: 13.3%

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Low-Owned GPP flier

Danny Lee: Grades: D, Values: C

If you’re throwing up in your mouth a little right now, don’t worry, I won’t take it personally. Before you shut off the monitor, though, let me remind you that Lee has played some good golf over the past six months, and recorded a tied-fifth finis in his last start before the pandemic where he gained over three strokes with his irons and another 2 1/2 off the tee. After some poor ball striking at Colonial led to a missed cut at one of his favorite venues, he showed better in that department at the RBC, gaining in both areas over a strong field and was waylaid only by cold putting over the weekend.

Lee’s putter could easily find some heat this week, though, as he’s quite familiar with the layout, having played TPC River Highlands in four of the last five seasons — he recorded tied-third and tied-15th finishes here in 2017 and 2018. It’s possible I’m a little early here, but Lee typically pops once or twice in the summer at these short par 70 venues and, with his ball striking rounding into form again I think mixing him into your GPP player pool makes sense this week.

Projected PGA DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 1.75%| FanDuel: 1.7%

Bonus: DraftKings Top Five Under Five

I am targeting five players here that I ultimately think will end up under (or close to) 5% ownership in bigger DraftKings GPPs. We’re searching for boom-or-bust players here with an almost 100% focus on upside.

Jason Kokrak ($7,400)

• 11th in SG: OTT and 43rd in SG: APP over the last 50 rounds.
• Gained over a stroke off the tee and on approach in first two events back and has only posted one poor round.
• Should be heavily ignored here in a range with Keegan Bradley and Corey Conners, but has similar upside as shown at Colonial.

Danny Lee ($6,900)

• See Above

Cameron Davis ($6,600)

• Was on fire before the break, making the cut in five straight events with two top-10s.
• Only had one poor round at Colonial but is now grouped on DraftKings with players who he has outplayed most of the season.
• Tied for 43rd at this event last season (only appearance) and gained +9.0 strokes tee to green in his last start before the pandemic.

Scott Stallings ($6,300)

• Mentioned Stallings in the First Look show on Awesemo this week. Reports about the state of his game on his social media were very positive.
• Struggles off the tee, but that won’t hurt him much at this week’s venue, especially with easy-to-hit fairways.
• Has gained over two strokes on his approach in three of his last five starts on Tour, including ending last week +2.7 for the week on approach.

Emiliano Grillo ($6,300)

• The @JazzrazDFS special! Like Day, it also be time to call bottom on Grillo.
• Has remained consistent with ball striking since coming back while remaining an absolute dumpster fire with putter.
• This is a price-to-talent thing. Grillo strikes the ball too solidly to keep missing cuts and his price is so cheap now that a made cut alone means he’ll pay off. If he does make the weekend, he has the talent to make noise.