The First Cut: Workday Charity Open l DraftKings & FanDuel Picks & Preview

The return to some normalcy is likely going to be a gradual process rather than a sprint. Being able to sit down and write this article every Sunday sets my entire PGA DFS week. This is the first installment in our weekly PGA content for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft, breaking down everything you need to know for the Workday Charity Open.

If this is your first time reading the article, or you’ve simply forgotten all about PGA DFS, then I’ll give you a quick summary of what’s to come:

  • Tournament Intro
  • Course Breakdown and DFS Sweatsheet
  • Player Preview
  • Statistical Preview

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Tournament Intro: Workday Charity Open

In my three or four years covering PGA DFS, I’ve never had back-to-back tournaments on the same golf course. That’s what we are going to have the next two weeks on the PGA Tour, first with the Workday Charity Open, and then next week’s The Memorial. Inevitably the Tour will do its best to make it a different golf course over the next two weeks. A few things they’ve already announced are the rough length and green speeds. Typically for The Memorial tournament, we see some of the fastest speeds on the PGA Tour rotation at over 13 on the stimpmeter, the way to measure the speed of the greens.

They’ve announced that they will be running 11 for the Workday this week, which should make them easier for the bad putters. The rough length will also be shorter for the Workday, so I expect to see a higher-scoring event with the cut line somewhere close to 2 or 3 under. Now let’s dig into Muirfield Village.

Tournament Format

There are 156 players with the top 65 and ties making the cut after 36 holes, which we know is the worst thing about PGA DFS.

Course Commentary: Muirfield Village Golf Club

Course Profile

Par and Yardage 

  • Par 72: 7,400

Course Difficulty 2019 

  • 13/49: +.08 over par.

Hole Dispersion

  • Four par 3’s: 200, 185, 185, 201
  • 10 par 4’s: 470, 455, 401, 447, 412, 471, 455, 363, 478, 484
  • Four par 5’s: 527, 563, 567, 529

Grass Types & Hazards (if available) 

  • Grass Type: Bent
  • Average green size: 5,000 sq feet.
  • Water Hazards: 13
  • Number of Bunkers: 73

Designer 

  • Jack Nicklaus

Facts and Figures

  • Off the Tee: Some of the holes here have very tight driving windows, making most players club down. In terms of distance, it ranked 15th out of 49 courses with an average drive of 282. Fairways, however, were some of the easiest to hit on Tour, reminiscent of Augusta Country Club, with players hitting over 70% of their fairways on the week.
  • Approach to the green: With no surprise, greens were some of the hardest to hit on Tour, even with the fairways being so easy to hit. The percentage hit was just 63%. Its proximity to the hole, however, was one of the top-20 easiest last year.
  • Around the Green: The green complexes are incredibly tricky here, and that makes scrambling difficult. It was one of the top-10 hardest last year, with golfers able to save par only 55% of the time.
  • On the Green: Once you on the greens, however, they aren’t incredibly tricky. In terms of overall putting average, it ranked in the top-11 easiest last year.

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Sweatsheet and Commentary 

PGA DFS The First Cut: Picks & Preview for the Workday Charity Open including Patrick Cantlay, Jon Rahm, & Xander Schauffele.

With the average score being over par, and four par 5’s on the course, you know there are some brutal ones out there. The par 5’s add up to over 40% of the total scoring with only one other hole getting above 5%. The best chance at a birdie streak on the week will be holes 5-7. That means there is no real stacking advantage for showdown purposes.

Player Preview

The Expected Top-30 Players in the Field by OWGR and Corresponding Odds 

There is a mixture now of the first three events and last week, with about half the world’s top 20 here to compete this week. Patrick Cantlay returns to the course where he won last year, his second start since coming back. For all you Tiger Woods fans, he’s expected back next week here at Muirfield Village for The Memorial, as are a few others like No. 1 golfer in the world, Rory McIlroy. Still, this week has a pretty darn good PGA DFS field considering the best players are likely to be playing two weeks in a row.

Previous Winners & Cutline:

  • 2019: Patrick Cantlay (-19) and the cut line was +1
  • 2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-15) and the cut line was E
  • 2017: Jason Dufner (-13)  and the cut line was +3
  • 2016: William McGirt (-15) and the cut line was -2
  • 2015: David Lingmerth (-15) and the cutline was -1

Statistical Comparison

  • Driving Accuracy vs. Driving Distance: There’s no real distinguishable feature here to determine whether bombers or plotters prevail here. Cantlay and DeChambeau are certainly among the best total drivers, while the other three wouldn’t even be considered in the top 150 or so.
  • Strokes Gained Tee to Green Analysis: David Lingemerth was the only winner out of the last five years to not have a good week around the green, with that being the highest correlation to the winners score we’ve seen since the restart. All of the golfers except DeChambeau ranked inside the top 10 in strokes gained on the approach for the week. No golfer gained over a stroke off the tee en route to their win. In fact, it’s one of the hardest places to gain more than a stroke off the tee, as it averages only two a year.
  • Putting; How good do they need to be here?:  A hot putter can definitely propel you to the top, as noted by DeChambeau’s win in 2o18, where he didn’t even rank in the top 15 in strokes gained on the approach. But Jason Dufner showed us one doesn’t even need to gain strokes putting on the week to get it done. Still, three of the winners were in the top five for strokes gained putting on the week.

Related PGA Content

Author
Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].

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