All of my PGA DFS picks and content is geared toward providing information that will help you with all your DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy golf and wagering decisions in the best way possible. This is the last of my week-long written material, and now it’s FREE!
I am primarily a GPP PGA DFS player and enjoy making 50 to 150 lineups, so the allocations I give out are likely not exact, but they are my target for the mass-entry GPPs. And so, if this is your first time reading it, let’s go over what you can find in it.
Article Index
- Key/Legend
- Last week recap
- TV schedule and weather update
- My entire player pool
- Notes on the chalkiest players
- #NarrativeStreet
Key/Legend
The following sections define who will play and what recommended allocation you should play them at:
- Core: We will start with these golfers in every lineup. At least two from my core will be in every one of the lineups.
- PFs: We all have our guys, and these are mine. They will be in the player pool at a minimum of 20%. I have seven, and they are quite common: Tiger Woods, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Brian Harman, Collin Morikawa, Brian Stuard and, at times, Bryson DeChambeau.
- Chalk Zone: These golfers are expected to be the most popular golfers of the week. They are supposed to be widely owned, and so, in a massive GPP, a winning lineup likely won’t have more than one of the guys listed in this area.
- Alternates: On the PGA Tour, alternates are lucky to get in the field each week. However, it happens all the time due to injuries. In this section, we’ll identify a few lineup alternates that can help fill a lineup and still provide some decent upside.
- Recommended Allocation: The percentage of time said golfer should be in your lineups, or at least what we are advocating.
- Projected Ownership: The percentage that the field will have said golfer in their lineups.
- Variance: The difference between Recommended Allocation and Projected Ownership. A favorable variance gives you leverage.
Last Year’s Recap
Are losing years inevitable? I guess that depends on who you ask and how far you’re willing to go into the downswing to chase the black. Some don’t have a bottom to their roll. For others, like me, that’s not really the case.
Here are my personal results from 2020 and my entire results since 2016.
An early hit at the Sony Open for $10,000 on FanDuel helped me hold the black all the way to the Florida swing. But a miss on a higher-owned Tyrell Hatton at the Arnold Palmer Invitational sent me to the red heading into the Players Championship. Luckily for me, who had basically zero Hideki Matsuyama that week, our entries were refunded. Once play returned from the COVID break, a seventh place in the Millionaire Maker at the RBC Heritage for $7,500 was a good start. But then the downswing started. In all, it was just shy of a $9,000 loss for the 2020 season. Saying I’m happy to turn the calendar would be an understatement.
Here are some stats on my year of handicapping:
The only way to see where it went wrong is to compare it to years past. Here are my 2019 handicapping results:
Right off the bat, it’s clear to see the difference. I had more winners and more 6-for-6 lineups based on my made cut percentage. The top-10 numbers don’t really matter at that point, especially in the higher stakes. Having the winner and five other golfers in your lineup is almost a guaranteed cash each and every week.
Ok, enough of this. Let’s move on with this week and the rest of the article.
Viewing (Sweat) Schedule
There is no PGA Tour live this week. Here’s all we get:
Thursday-Saturday: 6-10 p.m. (Golf Channel)
Sunday: 4-6 p.m. NBC and 6-8 p.m. Golf Channel
Weather
There will be mild to medium wind throughout Thursday, with a max of 20 mph and an average of 10 mph. The temperatures look absolutely ideal all week: Mid-to-high 70’s and pure sun. It is Maui, though, so the inevitable rain shower will likely pass through.
Favorites in the Core
Patrick Cantlay and Collin Morikawa will be core plays for me this week.
PGA DFS Picks for Tournament of Champions
Total Player Pool: 42 Golfers
Week-Long DFS Contests
DraftKings
- 1 $444 Pressure Putt
- 1 $200 Driver
- $150 Driving Range
- 1 $100 Long Drive
- 1 $75 Tee-Off
- 5 $44 Club Twirl
- 300-plus GPP Lineups
FanDuel
- 1 $333
- 150 GPP lineups
Core Golfers
Justin Thomas ($10,700 DraftKings/$12,000 FanDuel)
Given the top-end players, I feel most comfortable with Thomas. He’s had great success here; his recent form suggests that he’s in a good place; and he hangs out with Tiger Woods every day. If that’s not motivation to be the best, I don’t know what is. Also, out of all the guys above $10,000, he feels safest to me.
Xander Schauffele just announced that he had COVID not more than 10 days ago. Dustin Johnson has been living the absolute dream since his Masters’ win. Jon Rahm just announced he switched clubs and is now over at Callaway. Lastly, Bryson DeChambeau is likely to be fixated on driving it 700 yards onto the 18th green rather than winning the tournament. So, Thomas it is.
Patrick Reed ($9,600 DraftKings/$11,200 FanDuel)
Reed is another guy who comes ready to play each week. You can rely on him to grind it out all four days, even if he doesn’t have his best stuff. I decided to go with Cantlay over him in my biggest-dollar lineups, but I’ll have plenty of Reed elsewhere.
Viktor Hovland ($9,200 DraftKings/$10,400 FanDuel)
Hovland is arguably the hottest golfer on the planet, and he is on a course where he may not miss a fairway all week, with mild ownership. I’m in. I paired him up with Cantlay a bunch.
Joaquin Niemann ($8,300 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel)
It was the absolute worst timing for the Niemann camp to get the disease during Masters week, but it happened. Still, he was able to bounce back after that with a couple of good stats. He made his way around Kapalua quite well last year, and at this salary I’m willing to bet it will happen again.
Cameron Champ ($7,900 DraftKings/$8,600 FanDuel)
This is a no-cut event, and Champ under $8,000 is a win-win for me. His game has taken some pretty big strides and seems to be much more consistent than last year. The upside is clearly there, as he won each of his first two years on tour. And while I don’t think a win is in the cards for him this week, plenty of birdies and maybe an eagle or two are.
Gambles of the week
Stewart Cink $6,600 (DraftKings)
I have hope that the lower-owned veteran will come through with a top-15 this week. If that happens, he’ll help out DFS lineups in a lot of places.
Andrew Landry $6,300 (DraftKings)
Having played here a couple of years ago and the recent form showing up, it was a pretty easy click in my aggressive builds that needed someone under $6,500.
Robert Streb $6,000 (DraftKings)
If my lineup construction sent me down this far, and I didn’t roster Landry in that spot, I rostered Streb. A top-10 here after his first RSM win is all the reason I need to click his name in at min price in a no-cut event. I didn’t use him all that much, but in the lineups where I felt like I needed 60 points out of him for the lineup to have a shot at winning a smaller-field GPP, I took him.
PGA DFS Chalk Zone: Listed by Salary
Key:
O =Overweight
E = Equal Weight
U = Underweight
- Jon Rahm (E to slightly U)
- Xander Schauffele (U)
- Webb Simpson (E to U)
- Harris English (U)
- Cameron Smith (E)
- Abraham Ancer (E to U)
- Ryan Palmer (U)
- Carlos Ortiz (E to U)
- Kevin Na (U)
PGA DFS Fringe players
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Daniel Berger
- Scottie Scheffler
- Sungjae Im
- Sebastian Munoz (FanDuel)
- Mackenzie Hughes
PGA DFS Alternates
- Adam Scott
- Sergio Garcia
- Kevin Kisner
- Billy Horschel
- Jason Kokrak
- Brendon Todd
- Lanto Griffin
PGA DFS Holes in One
- The rest of the field
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